The Ukraine thingy


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Liberty's Edge

Legion Janus wrote:
Usagi Yojimbo wrote:
Legion Janus wrote:


United States admits evidence that Russia is behind it is circumstantial

To save everyone the trouble, that isn't the headline of the article and isn't an accurate summary of the article.

Though yes, everyone agrees that the Russian armed forces didn't pull the trigger.

EDIT - darn, ninja'd by Freehold.

Note this "saving of the trouble" is only accurate if you ignore every single time Russia is brought up in the article and the fact Kerry is trying to use the evidence to get sanctions against Russia for what happened in the Ukraine. Which, pretty much, means ignoring 90+% of the article.

No, what you said is pretty much unrelated to the body of the article. Most likely because you've been trained by media grandstanding attorneys and bad courtroom drama that circumstantial evidence = bad or weak without actually knowing what it is or how it works.

Here's a hint: The vast majority of all evidence presented in court is circumstantial.


Krensky wrote:
Legion Janus wrote:
Usagi Yojimbo wrote:
Legion Janus wrote:


United States admits evidence that Russia is behind it is circumstantial

To save everyone the trouble, that isn't the headline of the article and isn't an accurate summary of the article.

Though yes, everyone agrees that the Russian armed forces didn't pull the trigger.

EDIT - darn, ninja'd by Freehold.

Note this "saving of the trouble" is only accurate if you ignore every single time Russia is brought up in the article and the fact Kerry is trying to use the evidence to get sanctions against Russia for what happened in the Ukraine. Which, pretty much, means ignoring 90+% of the article.

No, what you said is pretty much unrelated to the body of the article. Most likely because you've been trained by media grandstanding attorneys and bad courtroom drama that circumstantial evidence = bad or weak without actually knowing what it is or how it works.

Here's a hint: The vast majority of all evidence presented in court is circumstantial.

No, I said it because of this particular quote from the article:

Article wrote:
"There's a buildup of extraordinary circumstantial evidence," Kerry said. "We picked up the imagery of this launch. We know the trajectory. We know where it came from. We know the timing, and it was exactly at the time that this aircraft disappeared from the radar. We also know from voice identification that the separatists were bragging about shooting it down afterward."

I stated no conclusion one way or the other about whether or not the evidence counts. And what I stated about the evidence being used against Russia is also in the article. Just take a look at my previous post to see a more complete listing of quotes.

Whether or not the evidence does not count is not my purview. That is up to those who wish to argue the subject. I am merely providing more information.


Krensky wrote:


Here's a hint: The vast majority of all evidence presented in court is circumstantial.

I would not take Kerry's words as a face value.You see,if anyone has more or less accurate evidence,it's russians.

Because,like i said,they have AWACS and active launch warning system in the region.And SA-11's launch is not something that is very hard to spot
US have NOTHING.
Well,they theoretically could have sattelite in the area in exact launch time.
That would be convenient.


Vlad Koroboff wrote:
You see,if anyone has more or less accurate evidence,it's russians.

*snicker*


Slaunyeh wrote:
Vlad Koroboff wrote:
You see,if anyone has more or less accurate evidence,it's russians.
*snicker*

Yep.And they are...we have a saying here that loosely translates as "silent as a captured guerilla fighter".

All they said that they detected working Kupol radar.
I bet they detected dozen of them,most of Ukrainian air defence are SA-11.


Vlad Koroboff wrote:
Slaunyeh wrote:
Vlad Koroboff wrote:
You see,if anyone has more or less accurate evidence,it's russians.
*snicker*

Yep.And they are...we have a saying here that loosely translates as "silent as a captured guerilla fighter".

All they said that they detected working Kupol radar.
I bet they detected dozen of them,most of Ukrainian air defence are SA-11.

So if the Russians are the only ones with accurate evidence & aren't producing it - then either no-one has any evidence (implying it was an accident), they don't want to humiliate/implicate the Ukranian Government (if it was them) or they know who did it and are happy to take the blame.


DSXMachina wrote:


So if the Russians are the only ones with accurate evidence & aren't producing it - then either no-one has any evidence (implying it was an accident), they don't want to humiliate/implicate the Ukranian Government (if it was them) or they know who did it and are happy to take the blame.

That sums it up perfectly.

Well,maybe they are waiting for something.Maybe for USA to demonstrate their "evidence".Maybe they are blackmailing Ukraine right now.
NOW!
It's possible.
Or maybe russians did it.Because,in any case,Ukraine will take the blame.
They are the ones who got paid for safe usage of their airspace.
Rebels or not-it's not the problem of airline.If you can't provide safe passage,SAY SO!


I really don't have much of an opinion on the downing of the Malaysian plane. But this I agree with:

Vlad Koroboff wrote:

I would not take Kerry's words as a face value.

"'You just don't in the 21st Century behave in 19th Century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped-up pretext,' Mr Kerry told the CBS program Face the Nation."


Comrade Anklebiter wrote:
"'You just don't in the 21st Century behave in 19th Century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped-up pretext,' Mr Kerry told the CBS program Face the Nation."

Take note Kerry, Putain is showing how it's done in the 21st century!


for those of you who live outside the US and in Europe do you believe most are waiting for action from United States? Are your leaders going to do anything such as speak up at UN? Do you think US sanctions will work? If the US believes in any way that Russia is behind this then why haven't we done things such as closed embassy's in Russia? Is there any outrage of what happened with the plane?


I'm pretty sure Kerry "I opposed the Iraq War even though I voted for it" doesn't need any tips.


wicked cool wrote:
Do you think US sanctions will work?

They theoretically can.Also they can backfire.

wicked cool wrote:
why haven't we done things such as closed embassy's in Russia?

Because words mean nothing.But for any action there is a reaction.And unlike in physics,it does not need to be equal.

Liberty's Edge

Comrade Anklebiter wrote:


"'You just don't in the 21st Century behave in 19th Century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped-up pretext,' Mr Kerry told the CBS program Face the Nation."

*cringe*

I think Kerry is in luck, irony satire was declared dead years ago when Macnamara was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

EDIT - changed wording so that it doesn't look like Anklebiter knows more about Tom Lehrer than I do!


2 people marked this as a favorite.

I wouldn't bother being so pedantic, but it touches on one of my favorite singer-songwriters:

"Political satire became obsolete when Henry Kissinger was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize."

Who's Next?


wicked cool wrote:
for those of you who live outside the US and in Europe do you believe most are waiting for action from United States? Are your leaders going to do anything such as speak up at UN? Do you think US sanctions will work? If the US believes in any way that Russia is behind this then why haven't we done things such as closed embassy's in Russia? Is there any outrage of what happened with the plane?

This is politics. Sanity, common sense or fairness need not apply.

All I can say, as a citizen of neighboring country is that I support Ukrainian government in their fight against so-called separatists (too many of them come from Russia, use high grade Russian weapons and exhibit military tactics), though I strongly prefer peaceful solution.

Sadly, as long as Russia keeps meddling, hope for peace is slim. The "separatists" keep getting supplies (gear and soldiers) and so the war can continue.

Regards,
Ruemere


Pepe Escobar column on the subject.

Pepe has been a bit too pro Putin lately for my tastes but the article raises some interesting points I have not seen anywhere else.

Liberty's Edge

Dennis Harry wrote:

Pepe Escobar column on the subject.

Pepe has been a bit too pro Putin lately for my tastes but the article raises some interesting points I have not seen anywhere else.

Based on that article he's basically a version of Glen Beck flipped from right to left on the political spectrum. Guy's writing makes my brain hurt.


thejeff wrote:
Coriat wrote:

Probably best to give this one some time for independent verification. It certainly seems plausible that it was a rebel launched missile (*glances casually upthread at Vlad bragging about how much more aggressive rebel AA has been lately*) but on the other hand, the source at the moment is the US intelligence community, which, I am sure, is institutionally completely unbiased and honest in every way.

Anyway, man, it is not a good year for Malaysia Airlines.

In their area and they're the ones with the tech to shoot it down, but no access to flight plans and air traffic control.

It's a far bigger screw up if it was anyone else. Or possibly a false flag operation intended to look like it was the separatists. But that's a stretch. Far too many ways for that to backfire.

I'm not saying the rebels didn't shoot it down. Like I said, it seems plausible.


Dennis Harry wrote:

Pepe Escobar column on the subject.

Pepe has been a bit too pro Putin lately for my tastes but the article raises some interesting points I have not seen anywhere else.

Not a good article. Russia should hope their own reporters do a better job than that.

(though I hear that yet another RT reporter bailed out recently).


Coriat wrote:
thejeff wrote:
Coriat wrote:

Probably best to give this one some time for independent verification. It certainly seems plausible that it was a rebel launched missile (*glances casually upthread at Vlad bragging about how much more aggressive rebel AA has been lately*) but on the other hand, the source at the moment is the US intelligence community, which, I am sure, is institutionally completely unbiased and honest in every way.

Anyway, man, it is not a good year for Malaysia Airlines.

In their area and they're the ones with the tech to shoot it down, but no access to flight plans and air traffic control.

It's a far bigger screw up if it was anyone else. Or possibly a false flag operation intended to look like it was the separatists. But that's a stretch. Far too many ways for that to backfire.

I'm not saying the rebels didn't shoot it down. Like I said, it seems plausible.

I think Occam's Razor points towards the rebels.


The Russian Government has repeatedly put out misinformation and propaganda throughout this conflict in Ukraine, so I would caution you from saying that this is just two equally credible sources.

Yep.We tell the truth and nothing but truth.Would this face lie to you?


You see,crazy ivans are not asking to believe just their words.At the very least they shown some videos!
Hmmm.Maybe they WERE waiting for the US to show their hand...


Ukrainian parliament disbands Communists's party of Ukraine
"This is historic day",i quote the speaker.

You see,all evil is from commies.
Free world really needs to conquer communism.
With the aid of God and a few marines.
And a magic show.


Vlad Koroboff wrote:

Ukrainian parliament disbands Communists's party of Ukraine

"This is historic day",i quote the speaker.

You see,all evil is from commies.
Free world really needs to conquer communism.
With the aid of God and a few marines.
And a magic show.

RT also had some great footage of a dust-up between former Yanukovych flunkies and buzz-cutted fascist delegates on the floor of the Rada. I think it was yesterday, but I'm not sure.

Comrade Jeff said something earlier about the civilians killed in the Ukrainian conflict having fallen off the radar in the MSM until the plane went down. Synergistic weirdiosily enough, yesterday a month-old piece by that inveterate Putin apologist, Stephen F. Cohen, showed up in my Commie Club e-mail list:

The Silence of American Hawks About Kiev’s Atrocities


In the shadow of Armageddon
And i'm not joking,from the russian standpoint it was launch of nuclear-capable ballistic missile in the direction of russian border.
What were they thinking?


I wasn't going to drop my opinion here... but... I changed my mind. I have always supported a people's right to choose their own leaders and if parts of that area wanted to become part of Russia them let them. Unless of course there are a large number of people who don't want that living there. And I guess that is why the separatists in Ukraine proper are more controversial than what happened in Crimea. But this mass murder of the people on that airliner and each sides response to it on the ground has highlighted in absolute certainty who are the good guys and who are the bad guys here. The separatists are pure evil. To commit mass murder of innocent travelers and brag about it needs no words to describe the horror, to threaten away any investigators and loot the plane itself for the victims cell phones and credit cards speaks volumes about the moral depravity of these people. But when I heard the account of one family who traveled to Ukraine to visit the site of their daughter's murder and the selfless support from the Ukrainian people who risked their own lives to help them get closure by holding a memorial at the site of the crash... I was moved to tears.

Ukraine isn't the bad guy... the separatists are the bad guys.


Vlad Koroboff wrote:

And i'm not joking,from the russian standpoint it was launch of nuclear-capable ballistic missile in the direction of russian border.

What were they thinking?

What were they thinking? Quite simple: Kiev got the point from separatists that they can shot down the military planes, so instead of using planes to fire missiles, they fire the missiles directly. The main problem is the cost but loosing a plane wouldn't be cheaper either!

As Ukraine as no nuclear capacity there's no much reason to worry.

I believe Kiev doesn't want to loose land anymore. Russian invasion of Crimea was brutal and generates now more brutality, and arming separatists with SAM missiles was obviously stupid.

Putin has 3 months to step back or to risk starting a new Cold War or at least a "Fresh War" that will weaken and deeply damage Russian economy.
Putin wanted Russia to be stronger but if he continues that way, Russia will completely depend on China. Chinese will suck-up Russia's ressources while smothering the last remains of its industry.


Vlad Koroboff wrote:

In the shadow of Armageddon

And i'm not joking,from the russian standpoint it was launch of nuclear-capable ballistic missile in the direction of russian border.
What were they thinking?

A nuclear capable missile launched by a country that gave up its nuclear armament.

A nuclear capable missile of the same type used by Russia in both the Georgian and Chechnyan conflicts.

What were they thinking? Thinking they were using a weapon for its designed purpose, I'd imagine.


1 person marked this as a favorite.

Pro-Russian separatists brag about shooting down a Ukrainian military plane, discover it is a civilian airliner, cover their asses: evil incarnate.

The United States shoots down an Iranian airliner, refuses to apologize and awards the commander of the Vincennes the Legion of Merit: good guys?

Btw, I read in an unrelated article by some lifelong leftie muckraker that al-Jazeera broadcast a documentary earlier this year "proving" (in the muckraker's words) that the Pan Am 103 bombing was carried out not by Libya, but by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (General Command) at the beshest of the Islamic Republic of Iran in revenge for the shooting down of Iran Air Flight 655.

Ah, blowback...


thejeff wrote:
country that gave up its nuclear armament

Yeah,right

Well,from what i've heard,target practice for russians's ABM systems was good.
thejeff wrote:
Vlad Koroboff wrote:
thejeff wrote:
country that gave up its nuclear armament

Yeah,right

Well,from what i've heard,target practice for russians's ABM systems was good.
For evidence that Ukraine still has nukes, you link to TVTropes?

Evidence?No,i just pointing that Ukraine...hell,any side in this war has a looooong history of lies and can't be trusted.

Besides,even if they haven't stashed away nuke or two,they easily can manufacture dirty bomb.Will be even more effective in cleaning..err..clearing rebel-held cities.
Aranna wrote:
To commit mass murder of innocent travelers and brag about it

You do realize that was fake recording,right?

The only more or less solid facts now is a)there was lots of Ukrainian SAMs in the area and b)there was some unindentified plane at exact time and place Boeing went down.
Yanks shown us NOTHING.Ukrainians shown us SA-11 without a missile leaving one of loyalist-controlled cities.
But OBVIOUSLY separatists shot down the plane.Even if it makes absolutely no sense.

Angstspawn wrote:
they fire the missiles directly. The main problem is the cost

The main problem is that they have...had 50 missiles cleared for launch in 2012(and one missile division,19th,if memory serves.12 launchers).Maintenance centers for them remained in Russia,and one party of 50 was cleared.Either that,or it literally cannot hit targeted city.There was at least one instance of missile doing exactly that,in 2000.

These missiles literally cost nothing,because you can't buy them(and obviously russians will not provide maitenance),and they will be worthless in a few years.Might as well use them.


Vlad Koroboff wrote:
thejeff wrote:
country that gave up its nuclear armament

Yeah,right

Well,from what i've heard,target practice for russians's ABM systems was good.

For evidence that Ukraine still has nukes, you link to TVTropes?


Comrade Anklebiter wrote:

Pro-Russian separatists brag about shooting down a Ukrainian military plane, discover it is a civilian airliner, cover their asses: evil incarnate.

The United States shoots down an Iranian airliner, refuses to apologize and awards the commander of the Vincennes the Legion of Merit: good guys?

Good guys? Obviously not. Assuming what you say is true the US was tactless and arrogant in the extreme. But unless they went in laughing and looted the valuables from the wreckage of the downed Iranian airliner I would not say evil.

Face it the US has been more neutral (maybe even evil) and less good for a long time now... but that doesn't change the evil done here or who did it.


Aranna wrote:
or who did it.

Actually,right now EVERYONE tries to change who did it.

Because,you see,truth is what people are told to believe.


Aranna wrote:
Good guys? Obviously not. Assuming what you say is true the US was tactless and arrogant in the extreme. But unless they went in laughing and looted the valuables from the wreckage of the downed Iranian airliner I would not say evil.

Ah, so what tips them from CN to CE is the laughing and looting. Got it.

"I will never apologize for the United States — I don't care what the facts are... I'm not an apologize-for-America kind of guy."--Bush the First


Can anyone provide,IDK,EVIDENCE of laughing and looting by rebels?
Because,you see,you do not need to be a rebel to loot stuff from the plane.
Especially considering THE DEATH PENALTY FOR SUCH THINGS.
Seriously,one rebel fighter was executed by firing squad for stealing pants,for God's sake!
But then,rebels suck because they do not provide acceptable security of crash site.

Liberty's Edge

Vlad Koroboff wrote:

In the shadow of Armageddon

And i'm not joking,from the russian standpoint it was launch of nuclear-capable ballistic missile in the direction of russian border.
What were they thinking?

Same thing Russia was thinking when you used them in Chechnya and Ossetia. Except that, you know, Russia actually has nuclear warheads to put on them and Ukraine only has conventional warheads.


Krensky wrote:


Same thing Russia was thinking when you used them in Chechnya and Ossetia. Except that, you know, Russia actually have nuclear warheads to put on them and Ukraine only has conventional warheads.

You are obviously fail to see my point.


Vlad Koroboff wrote:
Krensky wrote:


Same thing Russia was thinking when you used them in Chechnya and Ossetia. Except that, you know, Russia actually have nuclear warheads to put on them and Ukraine only has conventional warheads.
You are obviously fail to see my point.

So what is your point?

When everyone fails to see your point, perhaps you should make it more clearly.

Liberty's Edge

Vlad Koroboff wrote:
Krensky wrote:


Same thing Russia was thinking when you used them in Chechnya and Ossetia. Except that, you know, Russia actually have nuclear warheads to put on them and Ukraine only has conventional warheads.

You are obviously fail to see my point.

Yes, yes...

The glorious patriots of the Donetsk People's Army are fighting for freedom from the vile reactionary fascists central government of Ukraine with the support of their Russian brothers.

* Yawn


thejeff wrote:
So what is your point?

You do not launch nuclear-capable ballistic missiles in the direction of nuclear superpower.

OR ELSE.
Krensky wrote:

The glorious patriots of the Donetsk People's Army are fighting for

What?

They are trying to abandon a sinking ship,that's all.
This is not question of freedom or something.Just survival.


Comrade Anklebiter wrote:

Btw, I read in an unrelated article by some lifelong leftie muckraker that al-Jazeera broadcast a documentary earlier this year "proving" (in the muckraker's words) that the Pan Am 103 bombing was carried out not by Libya, but by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (General Command) at the beshest of the Islamic Republic of Iran in revenge for the shooting down of Iran Air Flight 655.

Ah, blowback...

Al-Jazeera is backed-up by Arabian Emirates scarred by the shia (ennemy) growing power that is Iran.

I'm not sure one report (or investigation) from them is enough to change the "official" point of view.

I really wonder what would happen to Arabian Emirates and Saudi Arabia if the Western countries get friendly with Iran...?
But we're getting far from Russia and Ukraine here... except if Iran can provide some substitution to Russian gas and oil for Europeans.

Some European countries depend 100% from Russian gas, but as Putin (and Obama) worked to convince them Russia might not be a reliable partner in the future they will most probably reduce their dependance to Russian gas.
It seems to me the contract between Russia and EU is running until the 2030s, which means Russia has 20 years to restructure its distribution.

So if Russia is keeping Putin (or one of his surrogate) at the head of the state till then, the 2030s will be the downfall of Russia.
So, if Ukrainians are patient they should get back Crimea in 20 years or so. If they're smart they'll use that time to enter EU.
If so Russia will have a few years of instability, the time to get rid of its nationalists. The EU, US and China will financially help Russia to reform itself. Russia will be then a country of minor influence, becoming mainly a natural ressources provider struggling hard to keep the country's integrity.

Anyway, it'll be interesting to make a first point in 2017, one hundred year after the revolution to see how Russia advanced over that time.

Dark Archive

Pathfinder Adventure Path Subscriber
Aranna wrote:
Comrade Anklebiter wrote:

Pro-Russian separatists brag about shooting down a Ukrainian military plane, discover it is a civilian airliner, cover their asses: evil incarnate.

The United States shoots down an Iranian airliner, refuses to apologize and awards the commander of the Vincennes the Legion of Merit: good guys?

Good guys? Obviously not. Assuming what you say is true the US was tactless and arrogant in the extreme. But unless they went in laughing and looted the valuables from the wreckage of the downed Iranian airliner I would not say evil.

Face it the US has been more neutral (maybe even evil) and less good for a long time now... but that doesn't change the evil done here or who did it.

yeah plane went down and wasent secured so got looted. If a site is not secured it's going to be looted no matter where in the world it is but especially in a warzone. Also not helped by the huge amount of misinformation being given out by both sides.


Vlad Koroboff wrote:
thejeff wrote:
So what is your point?

You do not launch nuclear-capable ballistic missiles in the direction of nuclear superpower.

OR ELSE.

Or else what? John Kerry will do some diplomacy?

Russia will nuke you? Is there any evidence to suggest that Russia thought for a moment those were nuclear missile or that they were aimed into Russia?

Because none of the links you've provided have given any indication that's the case.


Kevin Mack wrote:
If a site is not secured

By my understanding this requires at least a few hundred fighters for a few weeks.That would not be possible even without resumed loyalist offensive.

thejeff wrote:

Or else what? John Kerry will do some diplomacy?

Or USA will be forced(!)to do diplomacy,yes.We all now how good they are at that.

Syria,anyone?
You can play around the bear,but stupid things are stupid.


1 person marked this as a favorite.
Angstspawn wrote:
Anyway, it'll be interesting to make a first point in 2017, one hundred year after the revolution to see how Russia advanced over that time.

Yes, it will be interesting to note how far the living standards of the ex-Soviet working class has fallen since the counterrevolution of '91, how far they have regressed in issues of women's rights and all the other indexes (indices?) of social progress.

I mean, sure, they aren't ruled by a bunch of authoritarian, tyrannical bureaucrats anymore, but...


Comrade Anklebiter wrote:

I mean, sure, they aren't ruled by a bunch of authoritarian, tyrannical bureaucrats anymore

Wait,what?


2 people marked this as a favorite.
thejeff wrote:

Or else what? John Kerry will do some diplomacy?

When will that start to happen anywhere?


Hee hee!

The other day I saw a Jewish purveyor of Islamist propaganda on a popular commie news show demanding that Kerry reimburse the American taxpayers for all that wasted jet fuel from the Heinz fortune.


Kryzbyn wrote:
thejeff wrote:
Or else what? John Kerry will do some diplomacy?
When will that start to happen anywhere?

Hey, I didn't say it would be effective diplomacy.

But Vlad's "OR ELSE" linked to video of Kerry talking, so that was the only thing I could come up with for a consequence.


Thread, I know we are a disparate bunch, from various lands and with various political opinions.

But can I get a group hug on not liking John Kerry?

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