Why Are You Not A Millionaire?


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(I've heard it said those 13F's can be manipulated.)
[ article = tid bits ]


Grand Magus wrote:

(I've heard it said those 13F's can be manipulated.)

Well, yes, I suppose they can be. But why would you care if they are?


It has been whispered (often) "they" reallocate just before the
13F is due to maintain the appearance of having sane investment plans.

That one guy who won a nobel prize (you'd like him, he has links to his
papers) gave us statistical tools granting the ability to peer into the
allocation of holdings, of a Fund, by simple regression. (In fact, this is
how a lot of guys knew Madoff had to be committing fraud; and it is the basis of the
disgust with the SEC, at that time, for being in bed with him.) But, since it is based
upon statistics -- a nasty, dirty, untrustworthy science -- no one feels like personally
taking on the "Cost of Proof". And, instead most follow a path of avoidance and
protecting one's own.

I guess that's the way of things. Always will be.

.


Grand Magus wrote:

It has been whispered (often) "they" reallocate just before the

13F is due to maintain the appearance of having sane investment plans.

That's an odd definition of "whispered"; I suppose it's also been "whispered (often)" that Buckingham Palace is where Queen Elizabeth lives. Or that there will be a Presidential Election in the US in 2016.

I'm still not sure why you care. If your primary source of investment advice is a 13F form, you deserve what you get.


Orfamay Quest wrote:
Finally, options trading in particular is sensitive to this ...

Did you copy & paste this, or is this what you really think?

.


Grand Magus wrote:
Orfamay Quest wrote:
Finally, options trading in particular is sensitive to this ...

Did you copy & paste this, or is this what you really think?

Well, if I copied and pasted it, that would simply be evidence that someone else agreed with me.

But if you don't understand the time-dependence of options, then I suggest you re-read Black and Scholes and their work on option pricing. And definitely stay away from the put/call market until you do.

In particular, if you sell a call, you are expecting the security to drop in price before the expiration date of the option. If it continues to climb before falling off the cliff, you will actually lose money, and the amount that you will lose is unlimited.

For example, if I think Consolidated Widgets (XZY) is overvalued, I could simply sell it short, and I could continue in my short position forever (until it eventually did fall, or my broker phoned me and gave me hell). But if I sell a call on XZY with an expiry of December 31st, and the stock climbs 10% between now and then, only to fall 95% on January 2nd, I will lose money on the deal.

Basically, to make money on options, you need to be right about both the direction and timing. Since I don't think technical analysis will even tell you the direction,.....

A lot of people lost a lot of money when they thought the market was overvalued in 1999 and sold tech calls with expiries of December 31, 1999. They were right, the market was overvalued, and they still lost a lot of money.


Orfamay Quest wrote:


Basically, to make money on options, you need to be right about both the direction and timing. Since I don't think technical analysis will even tell you the direction,.....

But you're ignoring the fact Options are one of the most liquid markets.

Someone must know what is going on.

.


Grand Magus wrote:
Orfamay Quest wrote:


Basically, to make money on options, you need to be right about both the direction and timing. Since I don't think technical analysis will even tell you the direction,.....

But you're ignoring the fact Options are one of the most liquid markets.

Someone must know what is going on.

Yes, but you're not one of them.

Just because a lot of people do something doesn't make it a good idea, as the tobacco industry can attest.

Options are a way of transferring risk, which is very useful for fund managers and whatnot, since it means they can put a floor under their loses, or, alternatively, get additional leverage by taking on additional risk.

It's not, however, a very good method of making money. In statistical terms, the expected value of buying a stock (or a bond) is positive in nominal terms -- and, empirically, is positive in real terms as well. The expected value of buying or selling an option is negative, even in nominal terms. (The dollar values of gains and losses balance exactly, and then both parties pay transaction costs on top of that.)


Orfamay Quest wrote:
stuff stuff ...

You've been a good Robot today.

.

Shadow Lodge

Grand Magus wrote:
Orfamay Quest wrote:
stuff stuff ...
You've been a good Robot today.

With that attitude, you're lucky anyone engages you in conversation. If you're not open to differing opinions, how do you ever learn?


Mystic Lemur wrote:
Grand Magus wrote:
Orfamay Quest wrote:
stuff stuff ...
You've been a good Robot today.
With that attitude, you're lucky anyone engages you in conversation. If you're not open to differing opinions, how do you ever learn?

What's to learn?


I am a millionaire... In cents... Of Japanese yen...

Maybe even in full Japanese yen...! 'til I pay my bills, that is...


Mystic Lemur wrote:
If you're not open to differing opinions, how do you ever learn?

You're poor and always will be.

.

Liberty's Edge

And there's the patented Magus jerk-holery and lack of respect.


Krensky wrote:
And there's the patented Magus jerk-holery and lack of respect.

Meh. You don't need to learn anything when you already have the answers. We should all be flattered that GM bothers to address us at all, and not impose silly and unreasonable standards like correctness or even coherence. Standards like that are concerns only of lesser minds than GM's.


There is a reason CEOs make more money.
Why don't you learn why?


Grand Magus wrote:

There is a reason CEOs make more money.

Why don't you learn why?

Not because of their proficiency in the stock market. (I already know why, thank you. It's because they have a combination of demonstrable skill and proven experience at being a high-level executive that is both uncommon and in high demand. Basically, the same reason that NFL players make more money than average. The demand exceeds the supply.)

I also note that if your comment was supposed to be either coherent or correct, you failed.


This thread has actually been enlightening. You’ve been great subjects for study.


SUMMARY OF WHY YOU THINK YOU ARE NOT MILLIONAIRES:
------------------------------------------------------

1. Mental illness (your brain is organically incapable -- this
one makes sense.)

2. Social Class (you think you shouldn't be rich, having wealth
is not normal because no one you've ever known has it. And, for
example, you instead choose to be happy).

3. Participation in Capital Markets is Futile (Understanding the
machinery of capitalism is unfathomable, no one can really do it
successfully, and even trying is laughable.)

4. Learning from People who manage Wealth on a Daily-Basis is
Impossible
(They're just 'lucky', and besides their either
rich-kids or douchey-billionaires who don't know how they got there.)

5. Understanding Business Structure, and how to Organize your
friends into an efficient money making unit is Unimaginable.
(It
takes too much effort. Plus, Business leaders are evil, and should be
taxed out of existence.)

I'm calling this list "5 Habits of Not Being a Millionaire", thinking:
o cannot
o must not
o hopeless
o contempt
o too hard

.

Great work everybody! Carry on.


The sorts of careers that lead to such income do not appeal to me, and I lack the nerve for the investment game.


Kelsey Arwen MacAilbert wrote:
The sorts of careers that lead to such income do not appeal to me, and I lack the nerve for the investment game.

would you classify yourself as a (2, 3) or a (3, 5)


None. It isn't impossible or unimaginable, it just isn't worth the stress, the constant competition for more capital, or the price of abandoning what I actually want to do with my career. I'd rather make 65k a year in the urban planning work I have a passion for than be a business woman with tons of cash but a career that doesn't fit my personality or goals one bit and that I loathe. Money is important, but it isn't the only important thing, and 65k plus government employee benefits isn't an unliveable income at all, and that's just an average. I can make more if I have the drive and skill.


Grand Magus wrote:

This thread has actually been enlightening. You’ve been great subjects for study.


SUMMARY OF WHY YOU THINK YOU ARE NOT MILLIONAIRES:
------------------------------------------------------

1. Mental illness (your brain is organically incapable -- this
one makes sense.)

2. Social Class (you think you shouldn't be rich, having wealth
is not normal because no one you've ever known has it. And, for
example, you instead choose to be happy).

3. Participation in Capital Markets is Futile (Understanding the
machinery of capitalism is unfathomable, no one can really do it
successfully, and even trying is laughable.)

4. Learning from People who manage Wealth on a Daily-Basis is
Impossible
(They're just 'lucky', and besides their either
rich-kids or douchey-billionaires who don't know how they got there.)

5. Understanding Business Structure, and how to Organize your
friends into an efficient money making unit is Unimaginable.
(It
takes too much effort. Plus, Business leaders are evil, and should be
taxed out of existence.)

I'm calling this list "5 Habits of Not Being a Millionaire", thinking:
o cannot
o must not
o hopeless
o contempt
o too hard

.

Great work everybody! Carry on.

LOL!


I find it interesting that GM "thinks" that a desire to be happy is based on your social class.

I find it doubly interesting that GM discounts the idea that a wealthy person can simply be lucky. I wonder what GM hears when a broker talks about "risk-reward."

I find it triply interesting that GM "thinks" that a primary method of making money is to "organize your friends into an efficient money-making unit." Apparently I lose, since I make my money through my own efforts and/or that of my employees. And I instead play Pathfinder with my friends, which is hardly money-making and far from organized.

Well, by "interesting," I mean "boringly typical of GM's brand of mind-numbing drivel," dontcha know....


Grand Magus wrote:
Great work everybody! Carry on.

Actually as a soldier being rich can be a career ender. Say for example I win the lottery. That qualifies under the change of lifestyle and is because the amount of wealth involved can morale issues as well as personal conflict within the unit.

There are things you can do to be rich and stay in the forces. There are methods to set up trustfunds and what not that will not allow you access to the money at all, donations that can be made and so on. Also with rank comes a higher amount before it's considered an issue (hey rank has its privileges).

But basically my reason is, "Because I value my career in the military and my service more than I value money."

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

A lot of those that are wealthy are so because they did luck out. Not just in the "birth lottery" or actual lottery sense but also that they happened to be in the right place at the right time. Did they have something to do with the growth of that money? Likely at least something. However there is also truth to the concept of 'money gravity' -- much like regular gravity the more mass you have the easier it is to pull in more mass to increase your mass.

So no I don't "blame" the rich for being rich. But I realize that being rich is about more than just the person that is rich. They possibly earned some of it, but likely there are more contributing factors than just themselves.

After all no man is an island applies in all things.


Kelsey Arwen MacAilbert wrote:
None. It isn't impossible or unimaginable, it just isn't worth the stress, the constant competition for more capital, or the price of abandoning what I actually want to do with my career. I'd rather make 65k a year in the urban planning work I have a passion for than be a business woman with tons of cash but a career that doesn't fit my personality or goals one bit and that I loathe. Money is important, but it isn't the only important thing, and 65k plus government employee benefits isn't an unliveable income at all, and that's just an average. I can make more if I have the drive and skill.

I'd like to point out that you can easily become a millionaire on that salary if you simply save money. Pulling some numbers out of thin air, if you can save (as many financial planners recommend) 15% of your salary, or $10K a year, you can get up to a million bucks in thirty years.

Not much drive or skill involved in that, merely frugality, time, and compound interest.


Orfamay Quest wrote:
Kelsey Arwen MacAilbert wrote:
None. It isn't impossible or unimaginable, it just isn't worth the stress, the constant competition for more capital, or the price of abandoning what I actually want to do with my career. I'd rather make 65k a year in the urban planning work I have a passion for than be a business woman with tons of cash but a career that doesn't fit my personality or goals one bit and that I loathe. Money is important, but it isn't the only important thing, and 65k plus government employee benefits isn't an unliveable income at all, and that's just an average. I can make more if I have the drive and skill.

I'd like to point out that you can easily become a millionaire on that salary if you simply save money. Pulling some numbers out of thin air, if you can save (as many financial planners recommend) 15% of your salary, or $10K a year, you can get up to a million bucks in thirty years.

Not much drive or skill involved in that, merely frugality, time, and compound interest.

Yes, but do I need that much savings? Need to save some every month as a matter of course, but maybe not 10K every year. I'd rather spend some of that on having a comfortable life than collecting $1 million that I don't need.


Kelsey Arwen MacAilbert wrote:
Orfamay Quest wrote:
Kelsey Arwen MacAilbert wrote:
None. It isn't impossible or unimaginable, it just isn't worth the stress, the constant competition for more capital, or the price of abandoning what I actually want to do with my career. I'd rather make 65k a year in the urban planning work I have a passion for than be a business woman with tons of cash but a career that doesn't fit my personality or goals one bit and that I loathe. Money is important, but it isn't the only important thing, and 65k plus government employee benefits isn't an unliveable income at all, and that's just an average. I can make more if I have the drive and skill.

I'd like to point out that you can easily become a millionaire on that salary if you simply save money. Pulling some numbers out of thin air, if you can save (as many financial planners recommend) 15% of your salary, or $10K a year, you can get up to a million bucks in thirty years.

Not much drive or skill involved in that, merely frugality, time, and compound interest.

Yes, but do I need that much savings? Need to save some every month as a matter of course, but maybe not 10K every year. I'd rather spend some of that on having a comfortable life than collecting $1 million that I don't need.

I would point out that thirty years is also enough time to raise your own army of ninjas to take over the world!


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Grand Magus wrote:

This thread has actually been enlightening. You’ve been great subjects for study.


SUMMARY OF WHY YOU THINK YOU ARE NOT MILLIONAIRES:
------------------------------------------------------

1. Mental illness (your brain is organically incapable -- this
one makes sense.)

2. Social Class (you think you shouldn't be rich, having wealth
is not normal because no one you've ever known has it. And, for
example, you instead choose to be happy).

3. Participation in Capital Markets is Futile (Understanding the
machinery of capitalism is unfathomable, no one can really do it
successfully, and even trying is laughable.)

4. Learning from People who manage Wealth on a Daily-Basis is
Impossible
(They're just 'lucky', and besides their either
rich-kids or douchey-billionaires who don't know how they got there.)

5. Understanding Business Structure, and how to Organize your
friends into an efficient money making unit is Unimaginable.
(It
takes too much effort. Plus, Business leaders are evil, and should be
taxed out of existence.)

I'm calling this list "5 Habits of Not Being a Millionaire", thinking:
o cannot
o must not
o hopeless
o contempt
o too hard

.

Great work everybody! Carry on.

Seriously? Not caring about personal wealth is "contempt"?

You might want to re-think your priorities for a happy life, GM.

I make good money. My net worth is around $800k. I can buy what I want, when I want it, because my tastes are simple:
- My primary computer is 13 years old.
- My car is 18 years old.
- When something I own breaks down, I buy the "best new one" I can fit in my house. (We just bought a 75" TV, and it was quite a bit more than most people's mortgage.) Otherwise, I don't buy expensive things. I spend my money eating out with my friends, going on vacation, and otherwise enjoying life rather than striving for some artificial measure of whether I'm a worthwhile person.

That's "contempt"?

I strongly prefer "apathy". I have enough. I don't need more, so I'm not going to devote my life trying to achieve it.

Heck, my friend earns nearly triple what I make, and he spends ALL of it on good food, entertainment for his friends, and other things he considers "worthwhile". I think his net worth is even lower than mine. Does this make his life worth less?

As my father said,
"If you die owing money, you have done your children a disservice."
"If you die with money in the bank, you have done yourself a disservice."

EDIT: OK, I see. You categorize this as (2) Social class because I choose happiness over wealth.
Don't knock it 'til you've tried it!


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Pathfinder Adventure Path, Rulebook, Starfinder Adventure Path, Starfinder Roleplaying Game, Starfinder Society Subscriber
Grand Magus wrote:

.

List the reasons why you think you are not a millionare?

.

because i'm happy and content with my life, even if i'm poor, i love my wife, kids and even the dog, and that right there is worth more then a million dollars:-)

and being a dick and calling it a "social experiment" doesn't make it a "social experiment"
just saying:-)


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captain yesterday wrote:
Grand Magus wrote:

.

List the reasons why you think you are not a millionare?

.

because i'm happy and content with my life, even if i'm poor, i love my wife, kids and even the dog, and that right there is worth more then a million dollars:-)

and being a dick and calling it a "social experiment" doesn't make it a "social experiment"
just saying:-)

Reason #102 we loves us some Captain Yesterday.


Check out this game for rich children.
app = nasa

.


Pathfinder Adventure Path, Rulebook, Starfinder Adventure Path, Starfinder Roleplaying Game, Starfinder Society Subscriber
Grand Magus wrote:

Check out this game for rich children.

app = nasa

.

what the hell makes you think only "rich children" would use that App? my kids for one would love it! (and my bank account currently stands at 62 cents, so not money rich)

what exactly is your game here Tensor?
to make you feel better about yourself? piss people off?
i just don't get it, so maybe you could enlighten all us Poor Simple folk on what the point of it all is.


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Cap,
While I can't put words in Grand Magus/Electric Wizard/Tensor's mouth (remember that that account is used by two people), my *impression* is that he (I forget which one is the female. Sorry, GM!) is simply taking a stark Randian approach to life and seeing how people react:

(1) The sole measure of a person's worth is his or her net worth.

(2) Any failure to achieve net worth is a failure of character on the person in question; all mitigating circumstances are nothing more than lame excuses of the character flaw in question (usually sloth or stupidity).

On the one hand, a truly Randian world would be utterly depressing. Compassion would be considered a sin. (Remember, Rand considered charity a vile abomination.) People would be starving in the streets and dying of curable diseases, and the "haves" would sit secure in their fenced-in mansions with private security forces, content in the knowledge that all those dying around them deserved it.

I sincerely hope that GM doesn't honestly believe that a Randian world would be better.

Instead, my *belief* is that GM is forwarding the Randian attitude in an attempt to make people actually consider their choices in life. If you have a friend who is constantly poverty-stricken, but the moment he gets a new credit card he buys a $4000 stereo even though he has a baby on the way, you wish he would consider his choices better. If he were a bit more Randian, his family would be better off. (This is a true story, by the way. His wife explained to us in tears that he had spent their entire "nest egg" on a stereo, and now they wouldn't be able to afford basic goods for the baby and had to rely on the generosity of others at the baby shower. Really, really stupid life choices for him.)

Considering Rand's attitude is worthwhile. Accepting it is horrific.

Both you and I would be failures to Rand.

You actively chose to give up working (income) to raise your kids (parasites). This is an unacceptable decision in Randland. Since I did it for a while, I know exactly how fulfilling and rewarding it is. You go, Cap!

Our gaming group looks insanely successful: An average 6-figure income, three houses and a condo, most of us already preparing for retirement...
...yet one of our members took 10 years off of work to raise parasites (er, kids) and became a parasite herself. Another has been unemployed for years, and we pay for his food, his gaming equipment, and anything else he needs to join us because we enjoy his company. Charity at its vilest! The two of us who actually have 6-figure incomes routinely tip 25-30% (more charity! Bah!) because we enjoy slipping out and watching the faces of the waitstaff as they turn over the check, and seeing that we added a spring to their step. Making other people happy? Worthless! Oh, wait... the next time we go those places, we seem to get treated with more attention, and the staff hangs out with us and tells us stories of their lives, keeping us rapt and making our meals far more enjoyable as we listen to other people's life experiences. Bribing people just for stories and friendship? What losers we are!

You get the idea...


Pathfinder Adventure Path, Rulebook, Starfinder Adventure Path, Starfinder Roleplaying Game, Starfinder Society Subscriber
NobodysHome wrote:
a whole bunch of well said wise stuff

reason #102 on why we loves us some Nobodyshome.

disclaimer: it would seem the season has made me a tad testy today:)


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I'm not at all sure GM is doing anything quite so coherent as that.

(Though I had no idea it was a shared account.)


Pathfinder Adventure Path, Rulebook, Starfinder Adventure Path, Starfinder Roleplaying Game, Starfinder Society Subscriber
thejeff wrote:

I'm not at all sure GM is doing anything quite so coherent as that.

(Though I had no idea it was a shared account.)

just click on the name and look up the aliases, its all there:-)


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thejeff wrote:

I'm not at all sure GM is doing anything quite so coherent as that.

(Though I had no idea it was a shared account.)

What can I say? I'm a nice guy! I give everyone the benefit of the doubt...


captain yesterday wrote:
thejeff wrote:

I'm not at all sure GM is doing anything quite so coherent as that.

(Though I had no idea it was a shared account.)

just click on the name and look up the aliases, its all there:-)

A relatively quick look shows me that all of those are aliases of the same account, but I didn't see anything to indicate 2 actual people are using it.


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thejeff wrote:
captain yesterday wrote:
thejeff wrote:

I'm not at all sure GM is doing anything quite so coherent as that.

(Though I had no idea it was a shared account.)

just click on the name and look up the aliases, its all there:-)
A relatively quick look shows me that all of those are aliases of the same account, but I didn't see anything to indicate 2 actual people are using it.

I troll the boards a *ton*, and I seem to recall such a statement in one thread or another. GM will correct us if I'm wrong, I'm sure...


Pathfinder Adventure Path, Rulebook, Starfinder Adventure Path, Starfinder Roleplaying Game, Starfinder Society Subscriber

I actually had a more thoughtful response but after my phone hung up the third time, I went short and blunt :D

good for you Nobodyshome, stay at home parenting is hard:-) I'm still trying to figure out how my wife made it look so easy:)


There is a lot of '(2)-must not' going on tonight.

.


I'm not at all sure what "I'm just as happy without trying so hard to be a millionaire" has to do with "must not" or any of "Social Class (you think you shouldn't be rich, having wealth is not normal because no one you've ever known has it. "

Mind you, if everything goes well, I'll probably be a millionaire or close to it briefly when I retire, but with inflation and the need to live on that for some decades, that's not exactly rich these days.

What's so great about being a millionaire, if you have to contrast it with being happy?


.

Guys, don’t worry about the "why" of things; just be happy.
Have a drink, play some video games, and smoke it if you got it.

When you go to work, arrive 15 minutes early, leave 5 minutes late, and
do what you are told to do.

.


Oh don't get me wrong -- long term the idea is to make money.

Many of the skills, abilities and processes I've learned (and am going to learn) in the military will certainly help with that too (as well as the degree though that's more for the paper at this point than the skill sets I would normally supposedly have learned from it).

But the money in and of itself is never an end goal. It's simply another method to other more important ends.

I would very much like to get into politics at the end of my military career and to start some foundations to promote education, and the sciences.

I have (and have had) a very lucky life. I view it as my obligation to make the most of the luck I have been afforded and then (just as if not more important) do as much as I can to ensure that everyone else gets the best chance I can help them have to do likewise.


Are we only talking about net worth?


Jail House Rock wrote:
Are we only talking about net worth?

What else?


kaboom! wrote:
Jail House Rock wrote:
Are we only talking about net worth?

What else?

I mean you could make a lot of cash but spend it right away so you don't end up owning anything, but you spent over a million dollars a day.


Like owning a healthy strip club? Lot's of cash, and you rent the building. Yes.

.

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