Goblin Squad Member
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So if we assume we can get about 50k from new backers (not unreasonable). Then if an incentive of 15$ for all current 6000 backers is put out that touches 90k and there is a remaining 10k - which we assume can be squashed via a bit of luck and a bit of generosity.
Something like that: But GW would ideally be able to incentive the current backers strongly enough and the momentum can push this past it's goal. It's do-able. I could cough up an extra 15$ if everyone else is, even though I'm bleedin'!
Pet/Mount/Dragon Egg... ?!
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Goblin Squad Member
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Calidor, I'm actually relatively encouraged. The total has been going up about $1000 every 15 minutes for several hours now. Still below the rate needed for success, but getting us into the right ballpark. Definitely going to be a squeaker. It'll pass the finish line on the last day if at all.
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Goblin Squad Member
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If I were GW I would throw in my own money at this point. We are so freaking close
I'm pretty sure that's not allowed in the rules of Kickstarter.
Yes, GW could probably create an account to hide where the money is coming from. But I don't know, seems a bit on the unethical side.
Although I do agree, unless the funding doesn't start to go up more quickly soon, I don't think this will go through. It's still moving way too slowly to make a difference.
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Goblin Squad Member
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Doesn't seem unethical to me at all. Guess it just depends on how you look at it.
I've bumped up my pledge from $275 to $395.. it's the most I could possibly squeeze out of the budget and my wife is ready to kill me (she'll thank me when the game is released). I hope the next 24 hours bring lots of $$ somehow!!
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Goblin Squad Member
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If I were GW I would throw in my own money at this point. We are so freaking closeI'm pretty sure that's not allowed in the rules of Kickstarter.
Yes, GW could probably create an account to hide where the money is coming from. But I don't know, seems a bit on the unethical side.
I personally think it falls to the unethical side only when they go below the price point which enables them to deliver what they promised.
Lets say that GW made some estimates and calculations before they announced the Kickstarter. They estimated that they could stand and deliver @ $920,000 but decided to go for $1 Mil just to have some breathing room and a nice, round numbers.
If they paid that missing 80k, I wouldn't hold it against them. If they payed more to just take what they can get, they would not see me playing.
But these things are hard to judge.
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Goblin Squad Member
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Yeah, and at this point so many people are watching the Kickstarter that a multi 10k influx (especially if no 10k slots are taken) would definitely be noticed.
I cannot imagine that any financial benefit would outweigh the hit to Paizo's & GW's reputation such shenanigans would cause.
They could always pledge, say, at level of $15 starting now. Then gradually start raising that pledge but stay on the same pledge level. Most would just assume that old backers are raising their pledges and new comers are just throwing in tad larger ones. None would be the wiser.
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Goblin Squad Member
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The problem is the crappy kickstarter mechanics.
All pledges combine I'm about 1000$ deep into this game. You know how much I am still willing to give to GW if they fail to meet their arbitrary goal? All of it.
But if they fail to meet that arbitrary goal even by a dollar it then they get 0$ from this whole campaign.
If there is one thing this has convinced me it's that the idea of a kickstarter is solid, but kickstarter the website for MANY reason... is a piece of junk.
If this fails they need to do a new pledge drive on their own website like Star Citizen.
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Goblin Squad Member
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Yeah, and at this point so many people are watching the Kickstarter that a multi 10k influx (especially if no 10k slots are taken) would definitely be noticed.
I cannot imagine that any financial benefit would outweigh the hit to Paizo's & GW's reputation such shenanigans would cause.They could always pledge, say, at level of $15 starting now. Then gradually start raising that pledge but stay on the same pledge level. Most would just assume that old backers are raising their pledges and new ones are just throwing in tad larger once. None would be the wiser.
That would be unethical and against the transparent nature of both Paizo and Goblinworks. It takes a long time to build up consumer trust, but only one whiff of scandal to destroy it.
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Goblin Squad Member
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I don't think it's a piece of junk, it's a safety net to prevent people losing money on an idea, where if they don't get enough money it can't happen.
Even the types that would give it back, it'd be a lot of hassle.
Kickstarter is great for what it's for. This, well, might just not be it.
I agree, succeed or fail actually, they should make their own site and continue to take pledges. I want into EE.
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Goblin Squad Member
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If you read the $10,000 bracket it appears that there have been 'several' inquiries about donations of $10,000 or more OTHER than the three openings for Art Lover.
They have not made a pledge yet, and are likely to not do so until the very last. We have no way of knowing what is being negotiated or how many, or the amounts involved.
There are some very wealthy people in the world and some few of them may be interested in an evolution of the genre. They may also be interested as a real return-bearing investment, we cannot know.
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Goblin Squad Member
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Yeah, the "all or nothing" nature of Kickstarter is a problem. Raising 850k is nothing to sneeze at, and would probably go a long way to speeding up the game, and proves there's lots of interest for a print Megadungeon set in Golarion, but miss the goal by even $1 and that's game over for the customers. Blech.
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Goblin Squad Member
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2 ideas:
1) have a chat room on the paizo homepage all day on Monday where all of the workers at GW and paizo can pop in and answer last minute questions or announce last minute add ons.
2) give the $500 level and higher a new add on where they can do something crazy in the game like play a dragon or design a dungeon.
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Goblin Squad Member
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I was getting optimistic, we had raised something in the area of $50,000 before noon today then it just suddenly stopped.
Personally, I don't have a problem with GW topping of the KS. Sure they would take a hit to their reputation, but I don't think would be nearly as big as getting all of these people excited about all of the cool stuff they will be getting and then not being able to follow through.
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Goblin Squad Member
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That would be unethical and against the transparent nature of both Paizo and Goblinworks. It takes a long time to build up consumer trust, but only one whiff of scandal to destroy it.
Yeah, and at this point so many people are watching the Kickstarter that a multi 10k influx (especially if no 10k slots are taken) would definitely be noticed.
I cannot imagine that any financial benefit would outweigh the hit to Paizo's & GW's reputation such shenanigans would cause.They could always pledge, say, at level of $15 starting now. Then gradually start raising that pledge but stay on the same pledge level. Most would just assume that old backers are raising their pledges and new ones are just throwing in tad larger once. None would be the wiser.
So it would, and I would not take it well if they did as I described. Just pointed out how one could go about it.
Other thing:
It's not actually against Kickstarter's rules to pledge for your own project, but Amazon Payment's rules ( which transitively applies this rule to kickstarter).
And those rules state:
"You may not use your Card to make payments to yourself or to add money to your account."
(https://payments.amazon.com/sdui/sdui/helpTab/Personal-Accounts/User-Agree ment-Policies/User-Agreement)
It refers to the specific credit card used to create the Amazon Payments Account. As I only have a general idea how these things work in the US being from EU: how are companies issued credit cards? Could they have several? And would that make it "alright" to pledge themselves (rules-wise, ethics aside).
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Goblin Squad Member
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I think it'd be a scandal and it work, in fact, be more trouble than it's worth to "top it off".
Besides, as it's been said, they set 1 million because that's what they NEED to reliably speed it up. Or so we've been told. It's possible they could try to make due with 850-900 thousand, but then if anything went wrong, well. That may be worse.
The nature of kickstarter is an issue for this particular project, but then this isn't exactly what it was first designed for.
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Goblin Squad Member
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2 ideas:
...
2) give the $500 level and higher a new add on where they can do something crazy in the game like play a dragon or design a dungeon.
Right now that would mean 211 dungeons they would be committing to let us design for them.
Talk about loading them up with work. Plus they would have to work with people like me in the role of designer... you really don't like these guys I take it.
Other hand every dungeon could be really different then, and not the same three repeated all over the place.
There is the not-insignificant matter of the timing of this Kickstarter. Bracketing the XMas holiday is risky for many reasons. I couldn't budget to throw even $5 in at this time of year.
Another factor for me is that almost all the "bling" is in-game / Goblinworks exclusive, there's very little at a much more modest price point that is outside of the game. Take a look at the Horror on the Orient Express KS for examples. The add-ons and higher pledge levels were very appealing, as evidenced by exceeding their goal by a LOT.
Combine these two factors...
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Yeah, the "all or nothing" nature of Kickstarter is a problem.
The "all or nothing" nature of KS is there for a reason. It's keeps project creators from getting a lump of cash that's too small to execute their project with, and it helps deter fraud.
If I were GW I would throw in my own money at this point. We are so freaking close
Others have already covered how this would break the spirit, if not the letter, of KS ToS and would be ethically questionable. Paizo has spent alot of effort over the years to build a reputation as being very fair and honest in the PR/CS area and GW is sorta riding those coattails at the moment. Something like this would really wreck that reputation fast. It would also be hypocritical of Paizo/GW to demand people follow the ToS of their website/forum while breaking the KS ToS to get what they want.
There is the not-insignificant matter of the timing of this Kickstarter.
I agree with you, but it's been pointed out to me that I'm wrong because several other projects have blown their goals away over the holidays.
-Skeld
Goblinworks Executive Founder
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It would be one thing for Goblinworks (or even Paizo) to contribute to the KS. That would be shady.
It would be a different thing if Ryan or Lisa were to personally contribute their own money to the program, even selecting a reward tier and getting the rewards involved. That would be their -personal- money, not corporate money, and would not be shady at all. I also don't think that both of them put together have discretionary cash on the order of magnitude needed to be a factor for the kickstarter.
A new KS I would consider, especially with say a 60 or 90 day window. This one ... sadly, no.
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It would be a different thing if Ryan or Lisa were to personally contribute their own money to the program, even selecting a reward tier and getting the rewards involved.
I think it would be shady for any of the employees of either company to contribute, especially the officers of either company. I think it would look bad.
-Skeld
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Goblin Squad Member
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Yeah, the "all or nothing" nature of Kickstarter is a problem. Raising 850k is nothing to sneeze at, and would probably go a long way to speeding up the game, and proves there's lots of interest for a print Megadungeon set in Golarion, but miss the goal by even $1 and that's game over for the customers. Blech.
This isn't an issue with the Kickstarter model. It's an issue with goal setting.
If the goal was $100,000, with an intent of "This will let us speed things up by several months at the end of the process by planning to bring someone one to help convert from city/dungeon map to model", with stretch goals of "For every $100k, we can knock another 3 months off", then this kickstarter would have been completed in the first day, and everything after that would be bonus.
If the goal was $500,000, with an intent of "This will let us hire another developer and cut development time by 9 months", they'd have gotten there around the 21st of December, and the $300k raised since then could go towards releasing even sooner.
But they chose to make the goal a full $1,000,000. Obviously GW believed it was doable, but it looks now like there just isn't quite enough interest to do that. So they miss their goal, and get nothing. There's a reason that a lot of project management techniques involve breaking a big goal down into smaller, more manageable ones. By asking for too much at once, they've shot themselves in the foot.
I'm pretty sure I've seen Kickstarter projects which have launched with stretch goals laid out up to double their initial value. Clearly, they expected to reach said goals - it's entirely possible the original idea already included all those goals. But the people behind those projects sat down, and figured out what they could pare away to get the initial goal smaller, so as to clear the "All or nothing" hurdle. GW clearly didn't do that. (Or they did so and failed at it.)
So no, this has nothing to do with Kickstarter's model, and everything to do with the choices that Ryan and Lisa made.
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That being said, I'm just as frustrated as you that missing the goal by $1 means we get nothing. I was definitely looking forward to the Megadungeon...
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Goblin Squad Member
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Starting to look a bit dire at this point.
No it doesn't :)
The magical 48 hour bump has not really materialized.
Uhh, yea, actually it is.
GW needs to pull a rabbit out of their hat at this point to make it happen.
Even a few $10k custom pledges at this point will not be enough. We need $150k in just over one day...
Well, since it would be criminally stupid to not understand how kickstarter works, and how to leverage it, and GW has showed zero signs of being criminally stupid, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that maybe, just maybe, they have, you know, a plan.
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Goblin Squad Member
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It would be a different thing if Ryan or Lisa were to personally contribute their own money to the program, even selecting a reward tier and getting the rewards involved.I think it would be shady for any of the employees of either company to contribute, especially the officers of either company. I think it would look bad.
-Skeld
What if they publicly disclosed that they were doing so? Knowing Paizo and Goblinworks, I can't see them doing anything except disclosing if they make a large donation from their personal funds.
For example, an announcement saying something like "When she saw how close it was going to be, Lisa and Vic made a donation from their savings in order to ensure that all the backers of this project would get everything we have lined up for them."
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Goblin Squad Member
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Starting to look a bit dire at this point.
No it doesn't :)
The magical 48 hour bump has not really materialized.
Uhh, yea, actually it is.
The bump did happen, but it's not enough. If you look at the KickTraq chart, you can see that in the last three days they've been pulling in almost twice what they were in the days before it... but they're also predicting that it won't even reach $900k, even with that bump taken into account.
I really want this kickstarter to succeed, but I don't see any way it possibly can at this point short of the aforementioned "Angel" investors, whether or not the "Angels" are connected to PFO or not.
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This isn't an issue with the Kickstarter model. It's an issue with goal setting.
Raising $1,000,000+ for your Kickstarter project makes a statement. That might be part of the reason the goal is where it is (I realize Ryan has said that they need a million-ish dollars to make the acceleration feasible, so that's the other part).
It would be a different thing if Ryan or Lisa were to personally contribute their own money to the program, even selecting a reward tier and getting the rewards involved.I think it would be shady for any of the employees of either company to contribute, especially the officers of either company. I think it would look bad.
-Skeld
What if they publicly disclosed that they were doing so? Knowing Paizo and Goblinworks, I can't see them doing anything except disclosing if they make a large donation from their personal funds.
For example, an announcement saying something like "When she saw how close it was going to be, Lisa and Vic made a donation from their savings in order to ensure that all the backers of this project would get everything we have lined up for them."
I don't think doing it publicly would be any better (and could be construed as publicly flaunting Kickstarter's "don't fund your own project" rule, since Lisa is a corporate officer and part owner [I think] of GW).
If the project is to succeed, I expect that Paizo/GW want it to succeed on it's own merits, instead of being dragged across the finish line. The last thing anyone backing this is going to want is for Kickstarter to suspend it because someone was fiddling with the funding. I doubt they would look at it as a "the end justifies the means" situation.
-Skeld
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Goblin Squad Member
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This isn't an issue with the Kickstarter model. It's an issue with goal setting.Raising $1,000,000+ for your Kickstarter project makes a statement. That might be part of the reason the goal is where it is (I realize Ryan has said that they need a million-ish dollars to make the acceleration feasible, so that's the other part).
Oh, I totally agree. If you do it, it makes a really impressive statement. But setting the goal to $1,000,000+ doesn't really affect that. In fact, it may be more impressive to ask for $250,000 and receive four times that than it is to ask for the larger amount initially.
It would be a different thing if Ryan or Lisa were to personally contribute their own money to the program, even selecting a reward tier and getting the rewards involved.I think it would be shady for any of the employees of either company to contribute, especially the officers of either company. I think it would look bad.
-Skeld
What if they publicly disclosed that they were doing so? Knowing Paizo and Goblinworks, I can't see them doing anything except disclosing if they make a large donation from their personal funds.
For example, an announcement saying something like "When she saw how close it was going to be, Lisa and Vic made a donation from their savings in order to ensure that all the backers of this project would get everything we have lined up for them."
I don't think doing it publicly would be any better (and could be construed as publicly flaunting Kickstarter's "don't fund your own project" rule, since Lisa is a corporate officer and part owner [I think] of GW).
If the project is to succeed, I expect that Paizo/GW want it to succeed on it's own merits, instead of being dragged across the finish line. The last thing anyone backing this is going to want is for Kickstarter to suspend it because someone was fiddling with the funding. I doubt they would look at it as a "the end justifies the means" situation.
-Skeld
I'm sure they want it to succeed on it's own merits. If it can, that'd be great! But the question is "What if it can't?" Is it worth either self-funding or finding someone outside of the kickstarter to dedicate that much to it just to complete it?
I can't find anywhere which actually makes "don't fund your own project" an official rule of KS - I don't see it in the ToS or the Project Guidelines. That may make it bad form to self-fund, but not cause for investigating the project. Of course, in order to self-fund to completion, your personal credit card has to be able to support charging the difference, which is pretty high here...
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I can't find anywhere which actually makes "don't fund your own project" an official rule of KS...Look here.
Granted this quote references credit card rules as the reason. However, up above that:Can I pledge to my own project?
No. Credit card rules forbid project creators from paying themselves
Why would a project be suspended?
A project may be suspended if it:
• Violates or acts inconsistently with the letter or spirit of the Kickstarter Guidelines or Terms of Use.
...
So the million dollar question (literally) would be: would Kickstarter consider the above action to be a violation of the "spirit" of the "don't fund your own project rule"? The next question is, would it be worth the risk?
-Skeld