So Japan is going byby?


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The Exchange

Apparently thanks to the Quake that caused the Tidal Wave, Japan is now in trouble. MT Fuji sits on a Magma chamber 15 Km below the surface which would on reaching 0.1 megapascals cause an eruption. That Magma chamber is now at 1.6 megapascals so it will probably take most of the island when it blows and send Tidal waves at China, Korea, Philipines, Indonesia, Canada, Alaska, Western USA, Hawaii...We are likely looking at a super-eruption that will be heard as far as Australia and the USA.

So would it be right to err on the side of caution and evacuate fifty million Japanese to Tasmania?

The Exchange

Yellowstone will go first.

Scarab Sages

Why not have both blow and reset civilization to the stone age.

The Exchange

If both blew it would not reset civilization to the stone age. There would not be enough of us left to have a stone age.

Grand Lodge

Pathfinder Adventure Path, Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber
Artanthos wrote:
Why not have both blow and reset civilization to the stone age.

Yellowstone can do it by it's lonesome.

That's assuming that we're not hit first by a 1905 class Corona Mass Ejection which blows out every transformer on the planet.


Is there some new evidence that Yellowstone is close?

It does look like Fuji is likely to erupt soon, but I haven't seen anything to suggest a megaexplosion. It'll be devastating to the area, of course, but not "Destroy Japan and create tidal waves that destroy the whole Pacific Rim" devastating. Unless there's more evidence that I haven't seen.

And why Tasmania? What have the Tasmanians done to you?

Scarab Sages

Last I heard, Yellowstone remains a threat for future generations.


The pressure is high in Fuji, which suggests an eruption is near and makes it sound scary, but the volume isn't on anything like Yellowstone's scale.

Silver Crusade

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Pathfinder Adventure Path Subscriber

The problem isn't the volcano per se. Rather it's the noise which will inevitably awaken Godzilla who will then surely destroy Tokyo and any other population zone in it's grumpy just-woken-up swathe of destruction. Nothing like a swathe to send a nation back to the stone age.


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Also, the solar mass ejection will have destroyed every transformer on the planet when Godzilla wakes up, so not even the Autobots will be able to help us against the kaiju...


RRRRROOOOOOAAAAAAAWWWWWWRRRRRRRR! I AM AWAKE!


Sissyl wrote:
Also, the solar mass ejection will have destroyed every transformer on the planet when Godzilla wakes up, so not even the Autobots will be able to help us against the kaiju...

THIS UNIT IS PREPARED FOR SUCH EVENTUALITIES.


This is a concern, actually. I see where you are coming from, CJ, but there's still a chance something could happen relatively suddenly.


Freehold DM wrote:
This is a concern, actually. I see where you are coming from, CJ, but there's still a chance something could happen relatively suddenly.

Which part?

Fuji or Yellowstone?


I have family near Yellowstone and the surrounding area. So that's a bigger concern for me than anything else.


thejeff wrote:
Freehold DM wrote:
This is a concern, actually. I see where you are coming from, CJ, but there's still a chance something could happen relatively suddenly.

Which part?

Fuji or Yellowstone?

Fuji.

Silver Crusade

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Everything I can find reported about Fuji says it could be destructive for those in the immediate vacinity and send ash as far away as 100km.

That's not even close to laying waste to the entire nation of Japan.


DM_aka_Dudemeister wrote:
The problem isn't the volcano per se. Rather it's the noise which will inevitably awaken Godzilla who will then surely destroy Tokyo and any other population zone in it's grumpy just-woken-up swathe of destruction. Nothing like a swathe to send a nation back to the stone age.

Quick, somebody make a really big cup of coffee!!


yellowdingo wrote:
So would it be right to err on the side of caution and evacuate fifty million Japanese to Tasmania?

WRONG!

They should be sent ta Darwin an rubber stamped fer citizenship.

FOR MAH MAYORAL CAMPAIGN!

NOW SUSS YERSELVES.

Lantern Lodge

*STAMP!*

Sovereign Court

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Celestial Healer wrote:

Everything I can find reported about Fuji says it could be destructive for those in the immediate vacinity and send ash as far away as 100km.

That's not even close to laying waste to the entire nation of Japan.

Well, economically speaking, it could lay waste to Japan. If the ash cloud causes Tokyo to shut down, which would be a definite possibility, the economic and governmental center of the nation is effectively shut down.

It could also effective cut the nation in two for the short term (as far as land travel goes), depending on the spread of the ash.

The Exchange

Pathfinder Adventure Path, Rulebook Subscriber

Yellowstone may be a threat for the future, but I'm more worried about THIS hitting.


Do not underestimate the Japanese. History shows them to be resilient and have the means to repopulate.


Jaryn Wildmane wrote:
Yellowstone may be a threat for the future, but I'm more worried about THIS hitting.

The only nice thing about that scenario is that, if he's right, we'll have 7 years to prepare. The near miss "keyhole" he speaks of will be easy to determine and at that point we'll know if (and probably where) it'll hit 7 years later. Still devastating, but we'll be able to mitigate the damage. If only by evacuating well in advance.

Grand Lodge

Pathfinder Adventure Path, Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber
thejeff wrote:

Is there some new evidence that Yellowstone is close?

There won't be until it actually blows itself up or gets very close to it. Volcanos aren't on an Old Faithful style clock. Judging by it's past eruption, we're not outside the possibility of it going off in our time. Fujiyama on the other hand does not fit the profile of a supervolcano, but that's not saying that it won't do a lot of damage when it does go off though.

Don't worry too much about your family. If Yellowstone goes up, it'll be taking you out as well. It'll just take longer.


They'll be able to grow really awesome tomatoes in Nebraska.


LazarX wrote:
thejeff wrote:

Is there some new evidence that Yellowstone is close?

There won't be until it actually blows itself up or gets very close to it. Volcanos aren't on an Old Faithful style clock. Judging by it's past eruption, we're not outside the possibility of it going off in our time. Fujiyama on the other hand does not fit the profile of a supervolcano, but that's not saying that it won't do a lot of damage when it does go off though.

Don't worry too much about your family. If Yellowstone goes up, it'll be taking you out as well. It'll just take longer.

Except that this whole thread was started by reports of a pressure buildup in Mt Fuji that suggests an eruption is close. Since CJ said "Yellowstone will go first", I was wondering if there were similar indications. I haven't seen reports of any.

Fuji is just a normal volcano. That's bad enough, but not "take the island of Japan with it" bad.

Yellowstone is pretty much game over. Rocks fall, everybody dies.

Shadow Lodge

Okay, I gotta ask, since I'm apparently more out of the geological loop than I thought. What is in Yellowstone that is "game over"? And just how game over are we talking - Western US? Continental US? North America? The entire hemisphere?


There have been some indications over the years that the magma chamber under Yellowstone is filling up again. Parts of the caldera have been rising slowly.


The Yellowstone volcano would cause lots of trouble all across North America and probably the rest of the world. Humanity WOULD survive, but NA would be devastated. Think nuclear winter.


Yellowstone Caldera

Shadow Lodge

Wonderfrigginful... I dislike NORMAL winter.


yellowdingo wrote:

Apparently thanks to the Quake that caused the Tidal Wave, Japan is now in trouble. MT Fuji sits on a Magma chamber 15 Km below the surface which would on reaching 0.1 megapascals cause an eruption. That Magma chamber is now at 1.6 megapascals so it will probably take most of the island when it blows and send Tidal waves at China, Korea, Philipines, Indonesia, Canada, Alaska, Western USA, Hawaii...We are likely looking at a super-eruption that will be heard as far as Australia and the USA.

So would it be right to err on the side of caution and evacuate fifty million Japanese to Tasmania?

The Santorini event around 1600 BC and more recently Krakatoa are some examples of big eruptions. How do they stack up to this pending disaster?

Looks like Akrotiri was evacuated before the eruption so they had advanced warning of the disaster.
Don't book your hotel rooms in Tasmania yet my Yamato brethren!

Grand Lodge

Pathfinder Adventure Path, Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber
Orthos wrote:
Okay, I gotta ask, since I'm apparently more out of the geological loop than I thought. What is in Yellowstone that is "game over"? And just how game over are we talking - Western US? Continental US? North America? The entire hemisphere?

The entire freaking planet. Yellowstone could potentially cause wildfires that would sweep the continent, the resulting amount of trash heaped into the atmosphere would be comparable to the K-T extinction event.

Volcanic eruptions are rated on a scale with Super Yellowstone being class 8. Mount St. Helens was class 5 and Krakatoa was Class 6. Find more details here

A similar eruption at Toba in Indonesia was believed at one point to have reduced Humanity down to 1000 breeding pairs.


Aretas wrote:
yellowdingo wrote:

Apparently thanks to the Quake that caused the Tidal Wave, Japan is now in trouble. MT Fuji sits on a Magma chamber 15 Km below the surface which would on reaching 0.1 megapascals cause an eruption. That Magma chamber is now at 1.6 megapascals so it will probably take most of the island when it blows and send Tidal waves at China, Korea, Philipines, Indonesia, Canada, Alaska, Western USA, Hawaii...We are likely looking at a super-eruption that will be heard as far as Australia and the USA.

So would it be right to err on the side of caution and evacuate fifty million Japanese to Tasmania?

The Santorini event around 1600 BC and more recently Krakatoa are some examples of big eruptions. How do they stack up to this pending disaster?

Looks like Akrotiri was evacuated before the eruption so they had advanced warning of the disaster.
Don't book your hotel rooms in Tasmania yet my Yamato brethren!

It looks like Fuji would nothing like that. Closer to Mt St. Helens.

The 1707 event was VEI-5. The pressure now is much higher, but that doesn't mean the volume is. I think that misunderstanding is where the scare stories are coming from. 16*pressure -> 16*damage. Not necessarily.
Expectations are mostly damage to the immediate area and widespread ash.

Lantern Lodge

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Irontruth wrote:
They'll be able to grow really awesome tomatoes in Nebraska.

If by awesome, you really mean THIS!


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thejeff wrote:
LazarX wrote:
thejeff wrote:

Is there some new evidence that Yellowstone is close?

There won't be until it actually blows itself up or gets very close to it. Volcanos aren't on an Old Faithful style clock. Judging by it's past eruption, we're not outside the possibility of it going off in our time. Fujiyama on the other hand does not fit the profile of a supervolcano, but that's not saying that it won't do a lot of damage when it does go off though.

Don't worry too much about your family. If Yellowstone goes up, it'll be taking you out as well. It'll just take longer.

Except that this whole thread was started by reports of a pressure buildup in Mt Fuji that suggests an eruption is close. Since CJ said "Yellowstone will go first", I was wondering if there were similar indications. I haven't seen reports of any.

Fuji is just a normal volcano. That's bad enough, but not "take the island of Japan with it" bad.

Yellowstone is pretty much game over. Rocks fall, everybody dies.

The GSA (Geological Society of America) just printed a paper on this in their fall issue.

Summary - We have no f@!+ing clue when Yellowstone will blow. All evidence points to Yellowstone having blown up previously with no warning and no pressure buildup. So it might and it might not. But if it does it'll probably be like these three minor eruptions it's had in the past 500k years and just devastate the region rather than the world.

I definitely vote Fuji blows first. The Great Dragon Ryumyo is sleepin' in. I want my Shadowrun future.


ANebulousMistress wrote:

.

I definitely vote Fuji blows first. The Great Dragon Ryumyo is sleepin' in. I want my Shadowrun future.

As long as I'm good and dead before the Scourge comes back, I'm all for it.

Grand Lodge

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thejeff wrote:
ANebulousMistress wrote:

.

I definitely vote Fuji blows first. The Great Dragon Ryumyo is sleepin' in. I want my Shadowrun future.

As long as I'm good and dead before the Scourge comes back, I'm all for it.

Now that Earthdawn is officially separted from Shadowrun, it's future should be Scourge Free, unless we elect a future President with the surname Menethil.


Can't the end of the world wait until I die? :( or at least get a lot of home campaigns done? I hope yellowstone doesn't erupt, I live in Idaho.

On the other hand, we've advanced in technology so much. We can send a man into space, make a atom smasher, make VTOLS, and heaven knows what else, but we are still worried about volcanic activity? I thought we would at least have something to stop it.


Marthian wrote:

Can't the end of the world wait until I die? :( or at least get a lot of home campaigns done? I hope yellowstone doesn't erupt, I live in Idaho.

On the other hand, we've advanced in technology so much. We can send a man into space, make a atom smasher, make VTOLS, and heaven knows what else, but we are still worried about volcanic activity? I thought we would at least have something to stop it.

Like drilling to the center of the earth and setting off a series of nukes?


Tiny Coffee Golem wrote:
Like drilling to the center of the earth and setting off a series of nukes?

What movie are we going off of? I'm thinking Austin Powers, and I'm thinking that's a horrible idea.


Tiny Coffee Golem wrote:
Marthian wrote:

Can't the end of the world wait until I die? :( or at least get a lot of home campaigns done? I hope yellowstone doesn't erupt, I live in Idaho.

On the other hand, we've advanced in technology so much. We can send a man into space, make a atom smasher, make VTOLS, and heaven knows what else, but we are still worried about volcanic activity? I thought we would at least have something to stop it.

Like drilling to the center of the earth and setting off a series of nukes?

That movie was bad and you should feel bad.

Grand Lodge

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Pathfinder Adventure Path, Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber
Marthian wrote:

Can't the end of the world wait until I die? :( or at least get a lot of home campaigns done? I hope yellowstone doesn't erupt, I live in Idaho.

On the other hand, we've advanced in technology so much. We can send a man into space, make a atom smasher, make VTOLS, and heaven knows what else, but we are still worried about volcanic activity? I thought we would at least have something to stop it.

Man's most powerful activities are not even a wet firecracker compared to a volcanic eruption. If the Earth decides to shrug, there's nothing we can do about it. There isn't anything that we've done with our technology, that Nature hasn't been doing at scales far more massive than our best engineers can hope to manage. Our tech can imitate nature, emulate it to some degree, but surpass it, never.

Grand Lodge

So, what you guys are all saying is that there's a chance either Yellowstone or Japan could blow up and kill you.

Even though we've known this already from since before I was born.

So, basically, there's a reasonably good chance I could die sometime in the next year or so because of that.

I ask you,...

What's the difference between you or me dying in the next year or so because of a mega-eruption and dying in the next year or so from a car crash? Either way you are dead. Either way I am dead.


LazarX wrote:
thejeff wrote:
ANebulousMistress wrote:

.

I definitely vote Fuji blows first. The Great Dragon Ryumyo is sleepin' in. I want my Shadowrun future.

As long as I'm good and dead before the Scourge comes back, I'm all for it.
Now that Earthdawn is officially separted from Shadowrun, it's future should be Scourge Free, unless we elect a future President with the surname Menethil.

Boooo.

Well that's about the only thing that made Shadowrun interesting to me :-/


So the scary thing I heard about recently has to do with the realignment of the earth's magnetic poles. Part of the process is an expansion and adjustment of the core and mantle. If the mantle expands it could basically make all volcanoes erupt at the same time and put enough C02 into the air to kill us all off.

Grand Lodge

Pathfinder Adventure Path, Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber
meatrace wrote:
So the scary thing I heard about recently has to do with the realignment of the earth's magnetic poles. Part of the process is an expansion and adjustment of the core and mantle. If the mantle expands it could basically make all volcanoes erupt at the same time and put enough C02 into the air to kill us all off.

We're not sure about whether that would happen. The real problem is that during the pole shift the magnetic field strength will dip down to zero. That pretty much loses the bulk of our shielding against cosmic rays, and a good deal of the worst stuff the Sun can throw at us. Or atmosphere will still give us some protection, but anything that lives above the waterline is going to have some really bad days.

Shadow Lodge

W E Ray wrote:
What's the difference between you or me dying in the next year or so because of a mega-eruption and dying in the next year or so from a car crash? Either way you are dead. Either way I am dead.

Car crash can be better avoided: Don't drive. Live away from roads. Move to a more rural location. Sleep on an upper story of your house, or in a basement. Put a stone or metal wall around your yard. Etc. etc. etc. Point being, there are things we can do, as human beings, to stop, avoid, or mitigate it.

If a mega-volcano goes off, the best thing we can do is pray it's not bad enough to knock us back to prehistory, have the good luck to be in a good location for surviving the fallout (which we really can't predict in advance), and hope that the eruption doesn't set off any secondary volcanic activity that screws up whatever contingency we have planned.

It makes us very small in comparison and severely limits the things we can do to protect ourselves. A car crash does not.


W E Ray wrote:

So, what you guys are all saying is that there's a chance either Yellowstone or Japan could blow up and kill you.

Even though we've known this already from since before I was born.

So, basically, there's a reasonably good chance I could die sometime in the next year or so because of that.

I ask you,...

What's the difference between you or me dying in the next year or so because of a mega-eruption and dying in the next year or so from a car crash? Either way you are dead. Either way I am dead.

Nothing really. The only actual bit of data here is that there is evidence to suggest Fuji is more likely to erupt in the near future.

Nothing new about Yellowstone.

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