RPG Crowdfunding - What a year and 150 projects brings to light

[Mok]

The toil is at an end! At least partially...

Around a month ago I began collecting the data on RPG related Kickstarter projects from from various sources on the net, including this forum. In the end I dumped onto a spreadsheet a year's worth of data totaling 150 projects. Then I began crunching numbers to see what larger patterns are at work in the RPG crowdfunding world.

I've finished part one which looks at the larger patterns, such as the average backing for RPG related material is $45, rather than the $70 for Kickstarter as a whole.

You can see the report here, beware... it's long.

Part two of the report is still under construction. That will looking more closing at the various bands of backing and goal tiers from the survey.

Hopefully this will help people as they map out their own projects.

[Jeremy Smith]

This is really cool - I'm a numbers guy, so I really enjoyed evaluating the data, since Kickstarter is something we've discussed using for Dreamscarred Press projects, although we've never used it yet.

Thanks for posting this, very interesting information.

[Fire Mountain Games]

Wow, this is great data. Thanks for the effort, Mok.

I for one have read it and absorbed it.

Gary McBride
Fire Mountain Games

[Mok]

Part two of the 150 Crowdfunding Projects survey is now up.

In this one I focus on the backing behavior across the wide spread of funding levels. Then I look at how the creators shaped their funding levels with some common rewards being offered.

Enjoy!

[Fredrik]

Very interesting! And I appreciate the addition of attention to the median, even though I wasn't one of those who asked for it. (This is the first I've seen of your reports.) Thanks!

[Jeremy Smith]

What I found most intriguing in the data is that the trend, spikes, and price points of PDF / softcover / hardcover follows the pricing structure that we adopted last year following Paizo's pricing model ($10 PDF, $25 softcover)...

It's really interesting to see the data across a broader market segment support the model.

[Allen Taliesin]

Thank you for your work here. This is incredibly valuable data to have.

[Mok]

Jeremy Smith wrote:

What I found most intriguing in the data is that the trend, spikes, and price points of PDF / softcover / hardcover follows the pricing structure that we adopted last year following Paizo's pricing model ($10 PDF, $25 softcover)...

It's really interesting to see the data across a broader market segment support the model.

One thing that that numbers have a difficult time of showing, at least to the degree that my spreadsheet-fu can muster, is how few of the projects actually implement a $10/$25/$50 model. From just general observation it was usually $10/~$25 or $10/~$50.

I guess part of it might be people not going a POD route for printing their books, such as from RPGNow. If you do go that way then it is pretty simple to offer all three tiers to backers, which from my overall impression is really important for reaching funding goals. Having lots of different and compelling price points is needed to draw backers in at whatever degree they feel comfortable contributing.

[Mok]

Allen Taliesin wrote:

Thank you for your work here. This is incredibly valuable data to have.

You're welcome! I hope it helps!

The better informed all the small time publishers are of what works and what doesn't means a win/win for everyone.

[Mok]

Part Three of the Crowdfunding Report is now up!

This time around I look at general observations I noted as I went through the survey, focusing on broad issues that were not methodically tracked, but struck me as important in the larger picture. Enjoy!

[Richard Leonhart]

very interesting read

it would interest me how well goals and funding follow a bell/normal curve.

Also a few more correllations would have been nice, on the first page you show the data between pictures and no pictures who got funded or not, but a few more bundles like (media presence) towards funding would have been nice.

You seem to have a solid understanding of statistics and explain well to those that don't. Good addition to RPGs and statistics.

[Drejk]

Are there any collected information about the successful and successful kickstarters from the side of types and themes explored? Which types of products were receiving more backing than others? New RPG systems, settings for existing systems, rule accessories for existing systems, modules? And what kind of themes were successful? Classic fantasy, more exotic fantasy, steampunk, magitech, dark and gritty, dark heroic, heroic, adventurous, etc. Did anyone make such comparison what attracts interest of backers and found any patterns?

[Mok]

Thanks!

Yeah, there are a lot of angles that can be explored. The tough thing is that it takes many hours to pass through the survey set to collect a set of data points. I did four pass-throughs and each one took around 6-8 hours to do, so you definitely need to aim at a target and then grind through it.

I've been cleaning up the raw data and will be releasing that soon, so people will be able to attack it in a huge variety of ways, likely in ways fare more sophisticated than I did.

Drejk wrote:

Are there any collected information about the successful and successful kickstarters from the side of types and themes explored?

I didn't collect data on this, but I can fire from the hip and give some general impressions...

The themes seemed to hit all the major genres. Sci-fi/fantasy/horror/urban fantasy and then there was a good subset of just weird stuff, such as Everything is Dolphins.

Drejk wrote:

Which types of products were receiving more backing than others?

It's hard to say exactly without tracking things. But I'd say that sci-fi was getting a lot of attention, steampunk, and projects that were basically knockoffs of popular licenses.

Drejk wrote:

New RPG systems, settings for existing systems, rule accessories for existing systems, modules?

Generally it seemed to be whole new RPGs that were being put up. I think it was a minority that were supplements to existing systems.

Drejk wrote:

And what kind of themes were successful? Classic fantasy, more exotic fantasy, steampunk, magitech, dark and gritty, dark heroic, heroic, adventurous, etc.

OSR stuff seemed to always do well. Steampunk also.

Drejk wrote:

Did anyone make such comparison what attracts interest of backers and found any patterns?

I think some analysis might be possible. If more data was collected from the survey and added to it then with some spreadsheet mojo it could be teased out to some degree.

The raw data should be out some time this week, so it should hopefully reveal more to people.

[Mok]

The final piece in the RPG Crowdfunding Report is now in place with the release of the raw data used to generate the report. It took awhile to collect it together from different files, clean it up and then wrestle with the Creative Commons license, but it's done. People have been asking for this information, and I found it a bit serendipitous when I watched just the other day Tim Berners-Lee on TED exclaim, "Demand raw data now." Well, here it is, fly and be free!

Enjoy!

[yojimbouk]

One thing I'd be interested in seeing is how many successfully funded projects actually produced anything?

I've been involved in 5 projects. Of those, 3 already had a product that needed funds to publish. The remaining two were new projects. One, P20, failed to achieve funding. The other, e20, has gone into limbo.

Is there any correlation between funding and overall project success?

[Wicht]

yojimbouk wrote:

One thing I'd be interested in seeing is how many successfully funded projects actually produced anything?

I've been involved in 5 projects. Of those, 3 already had a product that needed funds to publish. The remaining two were new projects. One, P20, failed to achieve funding. The other, e20, has gone into limbo.

Is there any correlation between funding and overall project success?

i've backed several game projects (RPG and Board) and got product from 8 them: Do, Gaming Paper Adventures, Rolling Freight, Technoir, Dig, fluffy Bunny Tea Party, and Miskatonic School for Girls.

I have 7 other projects (two of which just got funding) I am waiting on. Of the 5 that have been awhile, at least four give regular updates, and actual production sometimes takes a while. But overall, haven't been burnt yet.

[terraleon]

yojimbouk wrote:

One thing I'd be interested in seeing is how many successfully funded projects actually produced anything?

Is there any correlation between funding and overall project success?

I've been on 20 patron projects, all of them either delivered or are in a state of production. I have only one which is in a limbo state, but it has a plan going forward.

I've been a kickstarter backer for 63 projects. (And two indie-gogo projects) It's not a matter of funding, really, but a matter of organization and drive, with a tilt factor which you gamble on.

Of the 65:
05 close soon and begin.
03 failed to meet funding.

Of the remaining 57:
29 successfully delivered. They were:
05 comic book projects (Anthology Vol 2, Cursed Pirate Girl, Dreaming Goddesses, Sleepless Phoenix, Volume 1)
10 RPG projects (Children of Fire, Coronets, Do, Grabbag, Human Contact, Parefied's, Shelter in Place, Stealing Cthulhu, Technoir, Violent Planet)
07 literature projects (Delta Green, Dying Times, Enzymes, Glass Darkly, How&Why, Oathbreaker, Zombis Blanc)
01 specialty art project (Century Club)
02 specialty dice projects (Dungeonmorph, Mathematician's)
01 specialty map project (Deep Vistas)
01 specialty prop project (Miskatonic U)
02 specialty technology project (Pad Pivot, Illumination)

09 remain in progress and communicative. I have received no delivery but expect them to complete.
06 RPG projects (Alternate Encounters, It Came From the Stars, Journeys into the West*, Metamorphosis Alpha, Parsec, Sleight of Hand)
03 Computer RPG projects (Banner Saga, FTL, Wasteland 2)

15 remain in progress and communicative. I received partial delivery and expect them to complete. They are:
06 RPG projects. (Aruneus, Early Dark, Eldritch Skies, Far West, MF0, Sacred Necromancer)
03 literature project (12 for 12, Dinocalypse, Shotguns&Sorcery)
02 movie projects. (95ers, Surviving Evidence)
01 lockpick project. (Open Locksport)
03 comic book projects. (Footprints, Lovecraft's Wonderland, Red Fog)

03 have become incommunicado. I anticipate a loss of backing funds. They are:
02 comic book project. (Dirty Rain, Virtuoso)
01 specialty dice project. (Periodic Table Dice)

01 has ceased production and refunded my backing cost after a partial delivery. This was a pretty class act, to be truthful. The individual in question never really talked about it, but some research indicated he closed up his 4E operations entirely.

I find solid projects are those done by organized people who maintain good communications. You may see a quiet period after greenlight, as activity gets underway, but a solid project should be updating regularly, showing progress, keeping you abreast of events. I find projects which abandon kickstarter for say, facebook, to be less engaging unless the project keeps simultaneous updates on KS, too. I may be unusual, but with many projects to follow, I need KS to aggregate the communication.

Overall, you need to look at the people putting the project in motion. Do they have a reputation for generating product? Joshua AC Newman can get my money anytime, because his stuff gets made and he talks to folks. Joe Wetzel of the Hexographer/Cityographer/Monstercards-- his stuff stays on track and he posts updates. Greg Stolz and Matt Forbeck are easy bets, as is Arc Dream. There were a couple where I knew the people from college-- Scott Lininger's _Children of Fire_ may have seemed risky, but I knew he'd designed a system back in the late 90's and so his RPG was a no-brainer for me.

The amount of funding isn't always a guarantee of smooth operation. I was antsy with _Far West_, but it's cruising along. Open Locksport has been a long road to haul, as has _Early Dark_ and all received thousands of dollars. _Coronets But Never Crowns_, _Do_ and _Technoir_ were all pretty painlessly awesome. Projects where the product is incomplete need more patience than ones simply looking for printing juice. _Glass Darkly_ from Arc Dream just needed to print, and it was in my hands within a few months. _It Came From the Stars_ is still in design, as is _Journeys into the West_ (although we're nearly to turnover)-- but those projects said up front they would take a while. When something's a labor of love for the creator, that's going to add a bit of time, too, because they're doing this (more than likely) on the side, rather than as a day gig. When something involves more than one person, I like it a little more, because even if there are more moving parts, there's more chances to pick up the slack.

I've gotten to a point with RPG ones where I can look at them, the page, the message and get a good vibe for whether or not they're going to hit funding on the first or second pass. And if they're willing to go for the second pass, that says a lot. Less than one update every 3 months? That says a lot, too...but mainly it tells me this is probably the only project for that person I'll be backing.

So...yeah. That's been my experience. :)

-Ben.

[Mok]

Ben that's some great data, thanks for sharing it!

Ben's perspective is about as close as one might get to finding out the follow through with projects. The big hurdle is that what happens afterwards isn't necessarily very public information. Creators and backers could be communicating with email or some other alternative method which can't be monitored.

Further, the scope of projects varies and so the timeframe on when they end up completing could be all over the place. I'd assume that if I were to go through the herculean task of pinning down the results of the 150 projects I looked at, I'd need to wait at least six month so the projects could all complete, if not longer.

Ben has a much better position to see how things are unfolding because he's connected to so many projects and so the communication channels are already in place.

[Epic Meepo]

Dotting this thread. Nice work, Mok.

[Matthew Winn]

Gah! I'm having flash images of a mock-up cover for "Consumer Reports: Gaming Edition"!

But no seriously, this is fascinating stuff. Thank you!

[Oceanshieldwolf]

Nice work Mok! Maybe a kickstarter project to help you next time? ;)

[LMPjr007]

Here is some more info that people might find interesting about kickstarter.

[Kitsune Knight]

dotting for interest.