RPG Superstar 2008 Top 32, 2011 Top 16
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You could also allow knowledge checks to allow the PCs to find out about specific weaknesses of that particular dragon - i.e. that it's got a weak spot in it's scales that they can attack at a lower AC under the right circumstances, a certain magic item was created by a wizard to fight this dragon giving a +4 to beat just that dragon's SR, but was lost before it could be used, etc.
This would allow you to not cheapen the dragon and their experience fighting it, but give them the edge they need to make it a fair (but very challenging fight.)
If they had fair warning of the power of the dragon...
Fight them. Make a few intentional missteps if you can justify it ("the dragon is toying with them!") but in general don't pull any punches.
If you happen to kill them, man up and kill them. I'm all for letting the players live — but if they're excited to battle this incredibly powerful creature, you'd be doing them a disservice if it wasn't deadly.
In general, if they know the stats and had a chance to prep and still went in after it, maybe they stand a chance. Maybe they know something you don't. If you end up with a TPK, it isn't your fault, they chose to take on something tougher than they were ready for. It's okay. PCs sometimes have to die.
The last session ended with the party standing on a boardwalk over a swamp with the black dragon erupting up out of the muck. So...I need a quicker fix.
I am right, right, that even a big party of 10th level PF characters is going to get creamed by this thing?
-Marsh
I predict cream of adventurer soup splattered all over the boardwalk, unless you give them some way to escape. It might be a forgiveable instance of deux ex machina. Would it make any sense for any reason for the dragon to blast them once with its breath weapon and then fly off to attend to something more important?
The last session ended with the party standing on a boardwalk over a swamp with the black dragon erupting up out of the muck. So...I need a quicker fix.
I am right, right, that even a big party of 10th level PF characters is going to get creamed by this thing?
-Marsh
Well, you could have the adventurer's lose (but are only knocked unconscious), only to awaken to find themselves in a cage they can break out of and the black dragon gone, or maybe a Gold/Silver dragon came by and chased the Black Dragon off and revived the players. You could have the dragon laugh in their face and fly off to pillage some village, because he'll be able to kill hundreds of innocents (instead of 10 puny adventurers).
Not the most creative solutions, but may act as a way to tell the players you aren't ready yet, and leave the players with a vendetta to settle in a few levels.
Can you just have the dragon do a fly-by, hit them hard for one round and gone? Maybe she's got urgent business someplace else? DOn't go for the final fight right now?
There is the option of having the dragon eat the penalty and deal nonlethal damage (after the lethal damage breath attack, of course) to take the party down and capture them, and go from there. If the dragon doesn't consider the party a real threat, it could be a realistic decision. More toying with the party.
Can you just have the dragon do a fly-by, hit them hard for one round and gone? Maybe she's got urgent business someplace else? DOn't go for the final fight right now?
Good advice.
I really don't think so; the players are really worked up over this fight, and the worst thing in the world to do would be to just yank the fight away outright.
There is the option of readying both the full-size and downsized dragon, owning up to the mistake at the beginning of the next session, and asking your players if they want the big dragon at full force anyways.
I really don't think so; the players are really worked up over this fight, and the worst thing in the world to do would be to just yank the fight away outright.
There is the option of readying both the full-size and downsized dragon, owning up to the mistake at the beginning of the next session, and asking your players if they want the big dragon at full force anyways.
Right, well, my first suggestion was to give the players the full on fight.
I'd need to know the players better to know which of these solutions would go down well. I think they're all pretty decent, in fact.
Find a way to interrupt the battle in the middle to come up with a plausible draw. Maybe after the 2nd PC is killed. This gives the battle enough weight so the PCs won't feel cheated, and gives the party a villain to track and fight later on.
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My thought,
Run the dragon as expected, likely slaughtering the PCs. Once all are dead, they wake up in the dragon's lair. He is in need of a favor, but they are not strong enough yet, they proved that. If they wish to live, he will train them...
Once they are trained (and enspelled to not betray their dragon lord),
They are ordered to fight a gold dragon who the Black Dragon wants dead. The gold dragon can dispel the magics compelling the group to fight it and he offers his aid in a rematch against the Black Dragon!
My thought,
Run the dragon as expected, likely slaughtering the PCs. Once all are dead, they wake up in the dragon's lair. He is in need of a favor, but they are not strong enough yet, they proved that. If they wish to live, he will train them...
Once they are trained (and enspelled to not betray their dragon lord),
They are ordered to fight a gold dragon who the Black Dragon wants dead. The gold dragon can dispel the magics compelling the group to fight it and he offers his aid in a rematch against the Black Dragon!
Interesting solution, that.
Throw them a curve ball.
Put them up against a level 16 black dragon...
But have it really be a metallic dragon instead. Imagine a gold dragon that's been put under a curse to be a black dragon. He's still good, but he can't convince anyone of it because of his appearance. So, he isn't interested in killing the party. I mean, he might by accident, but instead he tries to incapacitate them. Capture them. He needs their help to break the curse.
This could be an intro into a nice long story arc of them going to retrieve the 5 rare items he needs to break the curse and return him to his natural form.
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Well let's see, there is flanking, attacking to assist.... SR 27, that's a 18+ for a plain 10th level caster. Oh, then there is running away. :D
You know your group best, but don't give up on them just yet. They might come up with something to trump your dragon, especially given the time you've given them. You told them what it was, so they should be aware of it's high AC and SR and have hopefully been working together to come up with some plan.
Heck, a few lucky rolls on their side and a few bad ones on yours and you'll have a wizard roaming about as a dragon for 10 hours while the dragon's soul trapped in a gem is carried off to 300 feet away.
10 10th level characters is an APL of 13. Let them have it with both barrels, they'll remember it fondly, whether they die or live.
And they certainly have the ability to prepare accordingly.
Well, nothing forces you to use the stats as written. You can certainly have the dragon's AC and SR go down by 5 without telling the PCs (just quietly subtract the number, and perhaps add some hp to make up for that, if they haven't seen the stats).
Another option would be to hit them with dragon's full might and let them wake up tied to dragon's body like jewelry as he descends on the village / town / whatever they would be concerned with. The dragon demolishes the site and massacres whomever he can find in a quick search and then throws the PC in the middle of it all and loudly blames them for making him do that, flies off after that
When I first read this I had an idea pop into my head but I dont know if your group would cry foul or not. The idea is Lizardfolk dragon slayers! This dragon has had to anger some people in the past, have a group of lizardfolk dragon slayers show up and assist the PCs in killing the their ancient foe. Go 1 step further and say that the tribe didnt want the treasure (perhaps material possessions against their tribal edicts?) and instead take the dragons remains to create weapons and armor for future battles
Thats all Ive got at the moment but Ill try to come up with something else for ya
Have the dragon that popped up be an illusion. Reveal to the players that the real dragon is actually much smaller (though still quite challenging) and that it had been using trickery to bolster a false reputation as an ancient. Make him into something of a "Wizard of Oz behind the curtain." After all, if he is a 600-year old, old dragon, then who in the area is still alive to refute his claims of being older? (At best it would be a secluded, venerable, senile elf that isn't to be believed or doesn't care enough to make a claim.)
All the things that the PCs learned about the dragon have suddenly become things that HE WANTED OUTSIDERS TO LEARN, in other words, it's all useless, potentially misleading information and they've all completely fallen for his clever trap. This is a very "dragon" thing to do--manipulate the fight before there was ever a fight to begin with. It also allows you to bring the dragon down to size, but keep it formidable AND interesting by coming up with all kinds of traps and tricks that you can come up with in advance (dragons are nothing if not tricksy). We of the boards would be happy to give you all kinds of fun tricks for a clever old black dragon to use.
Any graceful suggestions for evening the match a bit without gutting the drama?-Marsh
•Deception: lower the dragon's stats and tell no one.
•Hostage stand-off: the dragon's hatchlings are nearby- PCs threaten one•Illusion: the dragon is hiding nearby, testing the party to gauge their threat
•Fudge rolls- fail whatever saving throw
•Cautious dragon attempts to parley
•Dragon they're about to fight is the progeny/younger mate of the ancient dragon, which they won't find for a level or two.
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I suggest a compromise, reduce the AC slightly...the guys who will be in decent hit range will probably be the only ones going melee. Lower the SR a little more than that but to offset wolfpack and novas for damage up the hitpoints and saves...lower the CR by one, then add a +1 CR modified version of the advanced template (+10 or +12 con, +6 dex, and +6 Wis only), with a flat hp bonus (or just a feat) plus CR 16 black dragons do not have toughness, give it that feat and you will squeeze out and extra 132 hp, you get around 429 hp with a dragon that gets: fort +25, ref +16, Wil +21 and more hit points (to fend off the horde)
Reducing the initial CR before the +1 template could get its AC down from 38 to 34-35 and its SR from 27 to 23.
Longer fight, more meat, spells and melee attacks actually have a greater chance of working, but it gets better chance to save from effects - gets reduced damage from some spells due to higher save chances, etc. Everyone has a chance of taking a piece.
The dragons in the Bestiary are horrible underpowered in the hp dept but are up powered in AC and SR.
Just an idea
Was this a real Dragon, or some Wizard using ""Form of the Dragon 2 or 3" to test the party to see what there reaction will be.
If the fight goes very well for the party, they might just got themself a new job hunting Dragons.
If the fight goes bad for the party, the wizard can always change form and teleport away; or toss out a Mass hold monster spell and then explain that this was a test.
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Another idea might be start the dragon off mad because it had been cursed by a powerfull witch. Every round that it fights it losses one HD and all that entails (( when it HD drop below the minum need for that age requirement, the dragon shrinks to the next age catagory down )). This way the player start off with the powerfull dragon, but it shinks down if they can survive the first few rounds.
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Or you can be just down right evil to your players. Let them give there best shot, and if its a party wipe = All the party wakes up in a inn, -1 permanent level, and tell them that the last week has all been a dream of them fighting a ancient Black Dragon nammed ""JR"".
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I also cast a vote for putting the PCs in the soup. Give them a fight they'll remember, but remember a couple things:
1. Environmental/situational modifiers - The PCs are on a boardwalk over a swamp. Are there any smallboats, trees, pilings or railings they can use for cover or to enhance their AC (sharing space with a wood piling or tree should grant a +2 bonus to AC, a boat should provide total cover.) Can the clerics, bards and other support types get under the boardwalk to take refuge as they keep their frontline in the fight (Total cover is awesome.) Can they fling mud in the dragon's eyes (blindsense isn't the same as blindsight and still provides the PCs with concealment while denying the dragon its Dex Mod to AC if the dragon is blinded.) Maybe the trees in the swamp hamper the dragon's maneuverability while he's on the ground (this could affect his AC or Ref saves) PCs should always use terrain to their advantage but you have to provide them with terrain to use. If they choose not to use it, that's on them.
2. The dragon has no way of knowing how tough the PC's are and has probably rarely faced anything capable of beating it in a fight. Black Dragons are also used to lording it over their domains through intimidation and fear. This might cause the dragon to lose a round or two (at most) attempting to frighten the party into submission by sheer frightful presence and intimidate rolls alone. Heck, it might even just sit there for a round allowing them to "take their best shot" just to show how mighty it is. Of course, if the party proves they're a threat, the gloves are off.
Tell em its going to be tough, and let fly.
You'll learn, they'll learn and you'll all remember. Anything else and you'll feel like you cheated them and they wont get their challenge. 10 pcs are a lot of pcs.
Sigurd
RPG Superstar 2010 Top 32
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2. The dragon has no way of knowing how tough the PC's are and has probably rarely faced anything capable of beating it in a fight. ..... Heck, it might even just sit there for a round allowing them to "take their best shot" just to show how mighty it is.
If you really don't think they can take it, this will let them drop it in one round, or at least really shock it. One round when it voluntarily drops, say, 10 points of AC and 5 SR. My group's 5 9th level characters recently sished out over 300 damage in 2 rounds against a big meatsack monster, so the damage dealing capacity is there if they can hit it. Definitely if there's 10 players!
I'd say let them have it too, they want it! Make his Flyby attack also Swim-by, create a pool of acid round them using Acid Pool(50' radius 20d6) as a first action then disappear 40 feet underwater again. He's already cast darkness with the radius ending 5' below the water's surface, of course. At the same time his already summoned insect plagues arrive, while underwater in the darkness he readies a Dispel Magic against waterbreating PCs who close while he waits for the breath weapon to recharge.
And so on - if they drop depth charges let him fly and dispel, if they cluster he can flyby acid pool, otherwise fly- and swim-by using his breath weapon, more insect plagues and swarms for a laugh, darkness, corrupt water to nuke their potions, ready magic missiles for when casters start casting and generally annoy them by plaing sneaky.
They can take him, but it shouldn't be eaasy. Don't let them close or surround him - not 10 of them. He'll be dead in one round.
Also, look at as a learning expericance.
Not every battle should be fought. There is a saying "Run away to fight another day". If you give the players a way to Talk there way out, or get out of dodge... and they chose to fight anyway...
Then you were not the only one to make the mistake. They also made the mistake of fighting something they should be running from.
Wish you and your players good luck.. A Ancient Black Dragon.. wow :)
They're Pathfinder characters.
With a little luck I've seen 4 second level characters splatter a CR 4 with not even a wound on any of them.
Your eight guys? Might even cream the dragon provided you don't just eat the wizards and clerics. Just make sure they know the dragon is a big nasty and the clerics will have to get out their big bad buffing spells, turning the fighters into giant balls of sword-swingy death. And a few flubbed rolls from your end could help a lot. If the are very strategic, they may get it down without any fuss. If not... wait till level 12. Maybe give the fighter a dragonbane weapon.
Throw them a curve ball.
Put them up against a level 16 black dragon...
But have it really be a metallic dragon instead. Imagine a gold dragon that's been put under a curse to be a black dragon. He's still good, but he can't convince anyone of it because of his appearance. So, he isn't interested in killing the party. I mean, he might by accident, but instead he tries to incapacitate them. Capture them. He needs their help to break the curse.
This could be an intro into a nice long story arc of them going to retrieve the 5 rare items he needs to break the curse and return him to his natural form.
That's a very clever and clean solution. I definitely wouldn't feel cheated by this, even if I *was* pumped to kill it (and I would be).
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I suggest a compromise, reduce the AC slightly...the guys who will be in decent hit range will probably be the only ones going melee. Lower the SR a little more than that but to offset wolfpack and novas for damage up the hitpoints and saves...lower the CR by one, then add a +1 CR modified version of the advanced template (+10 or +12 con, +6 dex, and +6 Wis only), with a flat hp bonus (or just a feat) plus CR 16 black dragons do not have toughness, give it that feat and you will squeeze out and extra 132 hp, you get around 429 hp with a dragon that gets: fort +25, ref +16, Wil +21 and more hit points (to fend off the horde)
Reducing the initial CR before the +1 template could get its AC down from 38 to 34-35 and its SR from 27 to 23.
Longer fight, more meat, spells and melee attacks actually have a greater chance of working, but it gets better chance to save from effects - gets reduced damage from some spells due to higher save chances, etc. Everyone has a chance of taking a piece.The dragons in the Bestiary are horrible underpowered in the hp dept but are up powered in AC and SR.
Just an idea
This is by far my favorite solution. The dragon is slightly nerfed, but no less difficult for it.
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Have the dragon that popped up be an illusion.
Alternately, the dragon himself *never* faces challengers one on one, without testing them first, having aquired a special magic item (or just found a cache of scrolls) that he uses to cast Simulacrum on himself.
If it's a special item, it could even be a property of this particular swamp itself, having a shadowy nexus near the center that is damaging and dangerous, but which functions like a place of power, creating a Simulacrum from the muck of the swamp that serves the person who taps it's power. Sadly it can only be used once per year, can only have one 'swamp Simulacrum' in existence at a time, and the Simulacra can never leave the swamp, making it something the party can't take with them (or readily use, unless they build a castle in said swamp, to take advantage of a single free Simulacrum of one of them).
If it's from a cache of scrolls, the Simulacrum itself may attempt to flee, since the Black Dragon will not regard them as disposable, and there might be a few more Simulacra lying around (and not all Black Dragons, perhaps the dragon defeated some other nasty critter in the area and made a half-strength version as a flunky, such as a Froghemoth or something).
I'd be most partial to the 'place of power' concept, because it allows the DM to use a half-strength Simulacrum, without later possibly placing that power into the hands of the party in any meaningful way. The place of power may have it's own dangers as well, as the 'Well of Shadow' subjects the user to strength drain or even the risk of a negative level, as life-force is siphoned off to the Plane of Shadow (some of which forming the shadowy muck-simulacrum). If the Simulacrum was recently formed, or the dragon blew a save to avoid a permanent negative level, there's yet another way that the dragon could be toned down, having sacrified something of itself to make that Simulacrum, and being a few Strength points down, or currently having the penalties of a negative level.
Yar!
My thought,
Run the dragon as expected, likely slaughtering the PCs. Once all are dead, they wake up in the dragon's lair. He is in need of a favor, but they are not strong enough yet, they proved that. If they wish to live, he will train them...
Once they are trained (and enspelled to not betray their dragon lord),
They are ordered to fight a gold dragon who the Black Dragon wants dead. The gold dragon can dispel the magics compelling the group to fight it and he offers his aid in a rematch against the Black Dragon!
I like this solution. No need to re-write the monster or fudge rolls, and it brings them into an epic power struggle.
And as other people have already mentioned... not every fight has to be faught & won. As best quoted by monty python; "RUN AWAY!!!!". perhaps this will lead to finding alternate routes to where they were headed in the first place?
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Why do you need a solution? It is an ancient black dragon. As adventurers, the party can CHOOSE to run or fight. It's their choice; you can forewarn them...legends about this particular dragon decimating cities etc. If they choose to fight, let loose and have fun; play the dragon to the full of it's abilities. If the party manages to win, be it by being creative (perhaps there is terrain that they can use to trap the dragon etc.)or through luck, they will appreciate the victory a lot more. If they loose, it happens; many adventurers have been eaten by dragons.
Dragons have feeling too...:P
10 PCs? Go for it. That's a pretty big party, they may surprise you. Also any party that level without an emergency exit strategy involving Dimension Doors, Teleports, etc. deserves what it gets.
What's the party make up, out of curiosity.
10 PCs? Go for it. That's a pretty big party, they may surprise you. Also any party that level without an emergency exit strategy involving Dimension Doors, Teleports, etc. deserves what it gets.
What's the party make up, out of curiosity.
Because there are 10 PCs, I would suggest "go with it."
Also, read up on - and remind the party of - the rules for Flanking and Aid Another. This would let them use their numbers to even up the fight.
10 PCs? Go for it. That's a pretty big party, they may surprise you. Also any party that level without an emergency exit strategy involving Dimension Doors, Teleports, etc. deserves what it gets.
I agree. Players can really surprise you. I didn't know the party was that large when I wrote my post above.
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I'd say this the the ideal opportunity to have a RP encounter with the dragon. Instead of fighting, they should try and talk it out. Start the dragon as unfriendly and give them a chance to use their diplomacy and RP chops to end the encounter. If they flub, then the dragon kills one or two of them and hauls their bodies off for lunch/reanimation as undead guardians.
Read up on black dragons in your campaign setting and it'll probably give you some ideas on how it would deal with these interlopers. Maybe it'll toy with them for a while. It might just wound them or carry off pack animals/animal companions for the first while, then harrass them when they're resting, finally going in for the kill when they're exhausted, terrified and out of resources.
The upside of this is that it allows the players opportunities to hurt the dragon, partially recover from its attacks, and maybe come up with a plan/chance to negotiate.
OTOH Your party is roughly 2.5 times the average size of a normal group, so they're gonna get a lot of actions in comparison to the dragon, so the dragon may actually be in trouble if it's played badly.
Of course, they could also run away...
This dragon doesn't need to waste its time fighting them, really.
Is this swamp its home, because then it might just be irritated at being intruded upon. Being evil and hungry, it might enjoy playing with its food. Have it eat just one would-be hero, and mire the rest in the muck by overturning the boardwalk.
Alternatively, could the PCs have been mistaken or tricked in believing what they see before them? Is it really as powerful? Is it really a dragon? It wouldn't be the first time some danger was exaggerated in its description. Perhaps there's even a magical element involved, such as illusion.
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Whoa whoa whoa.
Hold up.
"close to terminal" and "fresh"?
meaning the character just got done with some fights, and found out there's a dragon and it's right there and it's going to start eating their faces in less than one minute of in-game time?
meaning their characters aren't fully rested, haven't prepared specific spells, haven't been to town to stock up on acid resist potions and the like?
Now, everything in this thread is great and solid advice. I'm with the "let them have at it" crowd - a party of 10 10th level characters can take a CR 16 dragon if they've had time to prepare.
If they haven't had time, and especially if they are just coming off of some hard fights, they are all going to die unless you pull punches, and they have no shot at winning.
This is a very important bit of information, so maybe clarify, or at least let us know what happens? I for one am curious.
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A number of factors to consider:
1. How competent are the players tactically? A smart, well-coordinated batch of players will have a much better chance than your average hack-n-slash meatheads.
2. How optimized are the PCs, in general and vs. this encounter? If they had specific forewarning and a chance to prepare, they should in theory be in a much better position to take on the dragon. For example, they should all have acid resistance or protection pre-cast, at the very least. I would also expect to have pre-cast spells like flight on the melee warriors, possibly stoneskin and other buffs, and mirror image on the wizard/sorcerer. Ideally the spellcasters will have focused on buff spells, battlefield control spells, etc. that don't rely on overcoming SR or high saves to be effective.
Assuming we're dealing with your average bunch of PCs and players, here's what I'd do:
1. As Xuttah suggested, start the encounter off with roleplay by having the dragon speak with the PCs. This will negate any surprise it has and give at least one PC the chance to strike first.
2. Once combat erupts, if the dragon is having little trouble with the PCs, then once it has killed three characters, have it grab them (one per claw and one in its mouth) and retreat to its lair. This will be enough to give it a hearty meal and some swag to add to its horde, while allowing the surviving PCs a chance to regroup. Only do this once though--if the PCs return and face it again, go all out, up to a TPK if necessary.
3. On the flip side, if the PCs are doing surprisingly well against the dragon, don't be afraid to have it retreat itself. Dragons of that age should NEVER be pushovers!
Whoa whoa whoa.
Hold up.
"close to terminal" and "fresh"?
meaning the character just got done with some fights, and found out there's a dragon and it's right there and it's going to start eating their faces in less than one minute of in-game time?
meaning their characters aren't fully rested, haven't prepared specific spells, haven't been to town to stock up on acid resist potions and the like?
Now, everything in this thread is great and solid advice. I'm with the "let them have at it" crowd - a party of 10 10th level characters can take a CR 16 dragon if they've had time to prepare.
If they haven't had time, and especially if they are just coming off of some hard fights, they are all going to die unless you pull punches, and they have no shot at winning.
This is a very important bit of information, so maybe clarify, or at least let us know what happens? I for one am curious.
Hrm ...
A few points in favor of keeping them alive (i.e., if they are in supremely deep kimshee due to resource depletion prior to the encounter) is as simple as the dragon raising a wall of force between himself and the party, then commanding them to return 'when they are worthy'. If they then insist upon laying the smack down, slaughter them. Some characters will (presumably) escape... it will take the dragon a while to kill 10 player characters. Since the dragon is far from stupid, the paladin is likely to be the first to die - eating that kind of damage output is not something the dragon is going to take any longer than it absolutely has to.
Random Thoughts:
- An ancient black dragon is going to / should have a lot of reptilian mini-onions because of its charm reptiles and speak with reptiles spell-like abilities. Unfortunately, the Bestiary seems to have forgotten to subtype crocodiles, lizards and snakes as reptilian. Fortunately, this is very easy to remedy. Perhaps your group has already hacked their way through these mini-onions of the dragon's?
- The default DC of the dragon's Frightful Presence is 25 Will: rather steep for most of the characters save for the paladin (who is immune). This alone could be sufficient encourage them to leave and return. The clerics - if they have remove fear spells prepared - can quickly remedy this of course.
- Terrain works greatly to the dragon's advantage, and it knows. Very few characters are able - without freedom of movement - to deal with this dragon in his chosen terrain.
This should be interesting!
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]An ancient black dragon is going to / should have a lot of reptilian mini-onions because of its charm reptiles and speak with reptiles spell-like abilities.
I didn't know that onions were reptilian, or is it only just the mini ones? I'll be careful what I order in my martini from now on. ;)
But seriously, the charmed reptiles will provide some impediments, but I'd keep them out of the main fight unless things are going badly for the dragon too soon.
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I personally wouldn't go with the "dragon tells the PCs to return when they are a challenge" approach. To my mind, a black dragon doesn't reach ancient age by letting potential future threats escape so easily. Weak PCs should = easy snacks I would think.
On the other hand, I could see the dragon using them as cat's paws to undertake a task for it that it is unable to easily accomplish, probably due to its size (e.g., retrieve a MacGuffin from a dungeon full of 5' passages it cannot fit into). Extra points if while the PCs undertake this quest, the dragon goes off and destroys their base town/loved ones, to both weaken their future support mechanism and just to be an evil sumbich.
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You can always let them try to advance only to be hindered by guardian after guardian. They can still try and slog it through the guards, traps, etc and still see the dragon for a round or two. Maybe then they can decide to turn tail if they haven't already realized that they are not prepared (not in level but resources) at that time to take it out.
AKA harder than we thought approach, we need to find another/better way.
If you put them up against a hero wall (you must do this or the town will die, etc) then they are dead. At least the pally is.
Give them an honorable out - or even let the dragon mock them if they escape. Next time they meet it and finally kick its ass it will feel all the better. Works well story wise - heroes take on challenge, get beat down but live (at least most do), work on getting better then comes back and beats bad guy an satisfy honor and revenge.