Chief Technical Officer
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AGD's list only provides data on sales to hobby and specialty shops. Major chain bookstores (like Borders and Barnes & Noble) and online mega-retailers (like Amazon.com) are not included.
You are correct, sir. My point is that it shows that, even in the hobby market, D&D is still top dog when it comes to RPG sales, and that's verifiable from an independent source.
To me, Amazon rankings are generally non-meaningful, as I have firsthand experience of them not accurately reflecting even relative sales of popular products in our industry.
Contributor, RPG Superstar 2008 Top 6
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There seems to be a rather enormous amount of skepticism in this thread regarding any positive information on 4th Edition sales data, despite very little reason to believe that it isn't doing remarkably well.
What reason is there to believe it's doing remarkably well? I'd call that outselling 3E, and there's really no indication it's doing that. 4E brought in some players, but it lost enough that I doubt Wizards is appreciably ahead of where they already more. They may well have avoided a drop in sales from sourcebook saturation in 3E, though.
But again, with no hard data available, there's really just a lot of speculation. The long-term proof will be in what happens to the brand.
It's absolutely not surprising that D&D is selling more than everything else - it has largely unthreatened in that position for decades. What would be surprising would be if it reclaimed the sales of the 80s, or if it didn't sell well at all.
Edit: and as far as "wishing fail" goes - a collapse in D&D sales would likely do to the game industry what collapsing US sales have done for the world economy. A healthy 4E is good for gaming.
So AGD's results are questionable since they don't include all purchasing sources.
No, not questionable, just limited. They're useful for determining pretty much one thing - exactly what Vic was illustrating: how well hobby games are doing in relation to one another.
But Amazon's rankings shall be undisputed even though they exclude all other purchasing sources?
I didn't say this either. But a book product's overall popularity, I believe, is better judged by Amazon.com rankings than just about anything else.
Which makes a counterpoint to the enormous amount of skepticism in this thread regarding any negative information on 4th Edition sales data from other posters.
We don't really have any negative data on 4th Edition sales from other sources, which is what I've been saying all along. The only hard data we have points to 4th Edition selling well. Every example people have given of it not selling well has been woefully anecdotal (and almost invariably coming from those who don't like 4th Edition in the first place).
Vic mentioning that he's heard 4th Edition sales are similar to 3rd Edition sales from a year and a half ago is the closest thing we have, but it's certainly not anything resembling hard data.
AGD's list only provides data on sales to hobby and specialty shops. Major chain bookstores (like Borders and Barnes & Noble) and online mega-retailers (like Amazon.com) are not included.You are correct, sir. My point is that it shows that, even in the hobby market, D&D is still top dog when it comes to RPG sales, and that's verifiable from an independent source.
To me, Amazon rankings are generally non-meaningful, as I have firsthand experience of them not accurately reflecting even relative sales of popular products in our industry.
I wonder why that is. Almost everyone I know who buys RPG products buys them off Amazon.
What reason is there to believe it's doing remarkably well? I'd call that outselling 3E, and there's really no indication it's doing that.
There is absolutely indication that initial purchases of 4th Edition were dramatically higher than initial purchases of both 3rd Edition and 3.5.
4E brought in some players, but it lost enough that I doubt Wizards is appreciably ahead of where they already more.
You have no idea how many customers Wizards did or didn't lose. It strikes me as terribly hypocritical of you to attack me for not having any data (even though I did) when you make claims like this based on a complete lack of credible data yourself.
But again, with no hard data available, there's really just a lot of speculation. The long-term proof will be in what happens to the brand.
Please stop acting like there isn't hard data available. I've outlined it for you, and you've been exposed to it multiple times at this point. No, it's certainly not a complete set of hard data, but it's there. I'm not sure how long-term your proof needs to be; as has already been pointed out, sales (at least on Amazon.com, which is just about the only measurable benchmark available to us for overall popularity) are still quite high nearly a year after the game's release.
I wonder why that is. Almost everyone I know who buys RPG products buys them off Amazon.
I know a number of people who do that too, but I also know people who buy them from FLGS and likewise from Barnes & Noble.
But players buying them for themselves is only part of the picture. A number of younger gamers are going to be asking for them as presents, and the type of parents who want to look at something before they get it for their kids are most likely going to be checking them out in the major chain stores.
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Contributor, RPG Superstar 2008 Top 6
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Please stop acting like there isn't hard data available. I've outlined it for you, and you've been exposed to it multiple times at this point. No, it's certainly not a complete set of hard data, but it's there. I'm not sure how long-term your proof needs to be; as has already been pointed out, sales (at least on Amazon.com, which is just about the only measurable benchmark available to us for overall popularity) are still quite high nearly a year after the game's release.
Perhaps it is the science background in me, but sales ranks calculated from an unknown metric aren't "hard data" to me. Hard data is actual sales figures. Do you have some that you've been holding back? If not, please stop saying you have hard data that you do not in fact have.
In particular, amazon sales data is *absolutely useless* for any sort of trending analysis. #25 one month might represent more sales than #20 the next.
I've been exposed to no hard data at all in this thread, just second-hand and heavily processed metrics.
Which makes a counterpoint to the enormous amount of skepticism in this thread regarding any negative information on 4th Edition sales data from other posters.We don't really have any negative data on 4th Edition sales from other sources, which is what I've been saying all along. The only hard data we have points to 4th Edition selling well. Every example people have given of it not selling well has been woefully anecdotal (and almost invariably coming from those who don't like 4th Edition in the first place).
Vic mentioning that he's heard 4th Edition sales are similar to 3rd Edition sales from a year and a half ago is the closest thing we have, but it's certainly not anything resembling hard data.
I still stand by my statement. To me, several posters have been determining whether data is good or not, based on whether it supports their view. This is not a trait I've seen limited to people who have been saying 4th Edition has not been doing incredibly well.
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Contributor, RPG Superstar 2008 Top 6
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You have no idea how many customers Wizards did or didn't lose. It strikes me as terribly hypocritical of you to attack me for not having any data (even though I did) when you make claims like this based on a complete lack of credible data yourself.
Addressing this separately:
I've been very careful to phrase what I post in terms of opinion, and make it clear that I don't have any objective or hard data on what relative sales are - just my perceptions.
That's the difference, I'm not claiming any factual information about 4E vs. 3E sales, because right now the only people who have such information are (1) not sharing it and (2) not willing to post any concrete numbers to back up what vague claims they do make.
Not that they have to do that, mind you. But it does make any claims of knowing the truth dubious at best. It's all inference, and I've made no secret of that.
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Please stop acting like there isn't hard data available. I've outlined it for you, and you've been exposed to it multiple times at this point. No, it's certainly not a complete set of hard data, but it's there. I'm not sure how long-term your proof needs to be; as has already been pointed out, sales (at least on Amazon.com, which is just about the only measurable benchmark available to us for overall popularity) are still quite high nearly a year after the game's release.Perhaps it is the science background in me, but sales ranks calculated from an unknown metric aren't "hard data" to me. Hard data is actual sales figures. Do you have some that you've been holding back? If not, please stop saying you have hard data that you do not in fact have.
In particular, amazon sales data is *absolutely useless* for any sort of trending analysis. #25 one month might represent more sales than #20 the next.
I've been exposed to no hard data at all in this thread, just second-hand and heavily processed metrics.
And not only is there no hard data but with the fact that Amazon sells the books at a vastly reduced price compared to most other sources, thereby drawing in a large amount of buyers of the books, one can theorize that a large percentage of the books' overall sales are Amazon based making the rankings there an isolated incident in the overall market. Run-on sentence much?
Until actual sales figures are presented there is no clear indicator. That is a fact.
Honestly, apart from a few small data points, all we have going here is personal experience and personal perceptions. And if we're going to go with sales volume as the only litmus, we'd have to conclude that McDonalds sells the best hamburgers on the planet and no one has ever eaten a tastier burger. Ever!
Sold does not mean eaten, or for that matter, enjoyed.
My personal opinion is that 4E has fixed some thing that were broken but broke a great deal more in the process. And part of that breaking is also the Revised GSL, making far more difficult for writers and other publishers to patch shortcomings in the current edition.
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Chief Technical Officer
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To me, Amazon rankings are generally non-meaningful, as I have firsthand experience of them not accurately reflecting even relative sales of popular products in our industry.I wonder why that is. Almost everyone I know who buys RPG products buys them off Amazon.
Well, a while back, I did spend some time looking at Amazon rankings of some of our products, checking several SKUs of both new and "evergreen" products several times over the period of several weeks. Some of our best-selling products were consistently ranked substantially lower than some of our lesser-selling products. Amazon rankings, plain and simple, did not reflect what I knew the overall reality to be.
I'd hypothesize that Amazon sales rankings are a poor indicator for our industry because of three major factors:
1) Amazon's variable discounts combine with price sensitivity among internet purchasers (and especially those who shop at Amazon) to severely skew the results. That is, the more heavily Amazon discounts an item (as they did with the 4E Core Rulebook Gift Set last year), the more sales of that product worldwide go to Amazon. Imagine that a product priced at MSRP everywhere would normally attract 1000 buyers at Amazon and 4000 buyers elsewhere. If Amazon discounts it by 30%, maybe now it sells 1500 copies at Amazon, but only 3550 elsewhere (the low price brings some new people to the party, but even more of the sales are just moved from other channels). I'm making up the numbers here, but the point is, the more the discount, the more they sell.
2) Relatively small actual differences are exaggerated by the vast number of other items that these products are measured relative to. So if you compare their sales rankings of a product they're heavily discounting against a similar product that they're only lightly discounting, the discounted one will probably appear way higher in their rankings, partly because they're selling more copies, but also because there will be a lot more products from their vast library of offerings that sell in quantities between those two numbers. So a product that sells a few copies more than average can vastly outrank a product thats selling slightly behind average. Combine that with the notion that some weeks are better than others, even for Amazon, and the very same quantity sold might look great one week or terrible the next.
3) The portion of our industry's sales that go through Amazon is generally fairly low, and the portion of the market that Amazon appeals to has preferences that differ measurably from our overall customer base.
1) Amazon's variable discounts combine with price sensitivity among internet purchasers (and especially those who shop at Amazon) to severely skew the results. That is, the more heavily Amazon discounts an item (as they did with the 4E Core Rulebook Gift Set last year), the more sales of that product worldwide go to Amazon. Imagine that a product priced at MSRP everywhere would normally attract 1000 buyers at Amazon and 4000 buyers elsewhere. If Amazon discounts it by 30%, maybe now it sells 1500 copies at Amazon, but only 3550 elsewhere (the low price brings some new people to the party, but even more of the sales are just moved from other channels). I'm making up the numbers here, but the point is, the more the discount, the more they sell.
True in my case. I don't play 4E, but I did buy that gift set off of Amazon in order to give it a shot. The price was too good t resist.
If I wasn't able to get it that cheap I would have never have picked it up.
I'm glad the hate and bile is back. I really missed it!
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My friend's brother's mother works in a college canteen where she overheard a student talking about his older brother's girlfriend's niece's father (who works as a janitor in a coffe shop near the WoC headquarters) who heard two customers speaking (in low voice) about their friend's husband who works a WoC mentioning that 4th edition sales are either good, middle or bad (he did not get the last part).
What I mean is: WoC definitly sells these Books, somehow.
Another friend's father's brother's son once met someone in the train who spoke to someone else on the phone about his younger sister's elder brother having an affair with the housemate of the secretary of the firm who provides toilet paper for the Amazon headquarter. This secretary has a friend who once overheard someone in Amazon talking about 4th edition sales. They also definitly sell these books!
See, that is what I call hard facts.
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My friend's brother's mother works in a college canteen where she overheard a student talking about his older brother's girlfriend's niece's father (who works as a janitor in a coffe shop near the WoC headquarters) who heard two customers speaking (in low voice) about their friend's husband who works a WoC mentioning that 4th edition sales are either good, middle or bad (he did not get the last part).
What I mean is: WoC definitly sells these Books, somehow.Another friend's father's brother's son once met someone in the train who spoke to someone else on the phone about his younger sister's elder brother having an affair with the housemate of the secretary of the firm who provides toilet paper for the Amazon headquarter. This secretary has a friend who once overheard someone in Amazon talking about 4th edition sales. They also definitly sell these books!
See, that is what I call hard facts.
ok I said I wasn't gonna post in this thread again but....HAHAHAHAAHH!!!! good one.
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ok I said I wasn't gonna post in this thread again but....HAHAHAHAAHH!!!! good one.
I am currently trying to get the exact sales rumours from someone in the know.
But to get to this person I need to utilize a complex mathematical model based on a mix of chaos theory and shroedinger's cat.At the moment I am sitting here, staring at this box and can not decide if she is dead or alive. A dead cat is on no use to me. I need a living speciemen. But only if I open the box I will know for sure. I also have cat allergy.
Give me a few days and I might be able to use a d20 instead of math and cat.
I am currently trying to get the exact sales rumours from someone in the know.
But to get to this person I need to utilize a complex mathematical model based on a mix of chaos theory and shroedinger's cat.
At the moment I am sitting here, staring at this box and can not decide if she is dead or alive. A dead cat is on no use to me. I need a living speciemen. But only if I open the box I will know for sure. I also have cat allergy.
Give me a few days and I might be able to use a d20 instead of math and cat.
Shake the box. If you hear loud feline complaints, the cat is alive. If you feel a presence in your mind, the cat is alive and is about to reveal her overwhelming psychic powers. If you hear nothing, and the box is not air-tight and sound-proofed, the cat is dead. If you hear nothing, and the box IS air-tight and sound-proofed, go ahead and start working on the d20 version, because when it's ready in a few days, the cat will be dead.
Here, let me boil this down for you all. Every argument that has been offered essentially equals:
My edition of choice is better because I chose it.
Release the flames.
Allow me an intelligent and fact-based retort, Na Uh!
and allow me to craft an innane and utterly useless retort to your retort:
I would expect nothing less from you. :P
Are you suggesting my estimation of your abilities is flawed? Seriously. Why don't you just call me stupid? At least it would be honest instead of all this edition double-speak. It is obvious you are not interested in reason. It is sad how you have wrapped yourself in fan-boism.
:P
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Are you suggesting my estimation of your abilities is flawed? Seriously. Why don't you just call me stupid?
Because I would much rather call you pudding, or chinchilla, or even greg, you strike me as a good greg.
At least it would be honest instead of all this edition double-speak. It is obvious you are not interested in reason.
Now that's definitely not true, I've shown lots of interest in reason, it just has yet to show any interest back.
Now that's definitely not true, I've shown lots of interest in reason, it just has yet to show any interest back. (is this the double speak you are refering too?)
It is sad how you have wrapped yourself in fan-boism.
:P
That is not true either, I've wrapped myself in bacon.
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I am unsure why (unless you have shares) anyone cares how well sales are doing?*
If WotC decide that D&D is a white elephant some other company will buy the IP I'm sure. RPG's and specifically D&D (I am including all current variations of "D&D") will survive in one form or another for the foreseeable future. Play the one you like and try not to be annoyed by other people liking another system - oh, unless it's those who like "combat options" in 2nd ed AD&D in which case stone them...
2 cents.
*Please note I am not a suppliment junkie - in fact until Paizo started AP's I didn't even buy "adventures"**. So for me if a company produces an RPG I like with the equivalent of a PHB and MM I'm not really that worried if they then go "toes up". So for the record WotC D&D once PHB2*** is released and in my hands can file for bankruptcy, but Paizo must continue as they produce AP's. Fair enuff? [DISCLAIMER: this opinion may not reflect that of the gaming population at large - then again it might (no hard data will be supplied either way)]
**Sight lie, I have the every edition of the Ravenloft adventure.
***Please note I am annoyed I need another book to have "all" the D&D classes... grrrr WotC marketing.
That Alliance list would seem to show that Magic: The Gathering is still a major player in the hobby industry. I find it amazing that the game still has such popularity.
That is not true either, I've wrapped myself in bacon.
Mmmm...bacon.
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That is not true either, I've wrapped myself in bacon.Mmmm...bacon.
I thought dogs did that this way.
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Contributor, RPG Superstar 2008 Top 6
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That Alliance list would seem to show that Magic: The Gathering is still a major player in the hobby industry. I find it amazing that the game still has such popularity.
Yep. Supposedly one of the major WotC profit centers, along with novels. At one point miniatures were up there, too.
And that's just hearsay, I don't have any sales numbers :)
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Xaaon of Xen'Drik was an example of the echo. The idea that corporate drones are trying to tell you how to roll your dice has been bandied about for a few months now, here and elsewhere - to say nothing of calling every new development a "death knell" when all actual data supports the notion that 4th Edition is not only selling well, but satisfying customers enough to generate that kind of enthusiasm for supplements (It's now #39 on the bestsellers list, and #22 on their hot new items list).
See...this is my problem...I think that your argument goes both ways. 4e supporters get trapped in their own "Echo Chamber" or whatever you call it. That 4e is the end all be all. 4e supporters constantly point to "DATA" that shows that it's flying of the shelves and doing HUGE numbers. I wouldn't call Amazon's "Best Seller" list proof of 4e uber success. There are many other retail outlets you have to look at. Barnes and Noble, Borders, Gaming stores etc. 4e books aren't exactly flying off the shelves round here...granted they are selling. I don't have numbers so I won't go quoting any data etc. Just my observations.
I have noticed increased interest in older games like Rifts, Shadow Run etc. I don't know how well they are selling but I know that folks are asking about them.
As far as 3pp's. I would think that Notable 3pp's choosing NOT to go with 4e IS damaging to 4e. New up and coming publishers are looking to the notable ones for guidance of a sort. If they see successful 3pp's like GR and Paizo jumping ship on the GSL...it's going to make them think twice.
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If WotC decide that D&D is a white elephant some other company will buy the IP I'm sure. RPG's and specifically D&D (I am including all current variations of "D&D") will survive in one form or another for the foreseeable future. Play the one you like and try not to be annoyed by other people liking another system - oh, unless it's those who like "combat options" in 2nd ed AD&D in which case stone them...
I agree...although there is NO WAY IN HELL Hasbro is ever going to let that IP go. That would be like letting Transformers or G.I. Joe go to Matel. That's just crazy talk! 8)
See...this is my problem...I think that your argument goes both ways. 4e supporters get trapped in their own "Echo Chamber" or whatever you call it. That 4e is the end all be all. 4e supporters constantly point to "DATA" that shows that it's flying of the shelves and doing HUGE numbers. I wouldn't call Amazon's "Best Seller" list proof of 4e uber success. There are many other retail outlets you have to look at. Barnes and Noble, Borders, Gaming stores etc. 4e books aren't exactly flying off the shelves round here...granted they are selling. I don't have numbers so I won't go quoting any data etc. Just my observations.
I have noticed increased interest in older games like Rifts, Shadow Run etc. I don't know how well they are selling but I know that folks are asking about them.
As far as 3pp's. I would think that Notable 3pp's choosing NOT to go with 4e IS damaging to 4e. New up and coming publishers are looking to the notable ones for guidance of a sort. If they see successful 3pp's like GR and Paizo jumping ship on the GSL...it's going to make them think twice.
That's certainly a way of looking at it.
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I would think that Notable 3pp's choosing NOT to go with 4e IS damaging to 4e.Why do you believe the lack of 3PP support for 4E is hurting Wizard of the Coast?
Well in the long run it could cause some issues. 3pp's kinda pick up the slack in the suppliment arena...seems to me at least. Kinda takes the pressure off of WotC. No 3pp's doing those books could cause some problems for WotC in the end. If they are counting on 3pp's to pick up the slack.
I mean if their plan is to get 3pp's on board..and they don't want to...they could always just say "Screw you guys!" and get rid of the GSL all together. I would almost rather they do that. Then there wouldn't be any argument.
Then there wouldn't be any argument.
This is the Internet. If they terminated the GSL (or never made one) there would still be people arguing over how WotC should allow it against people saying that they know WotC did a great thing by eliminating the GSL.
But don't believe it is the case that I'm missing out on 3pp support for 4th edition, as I have four different 3rd party products from four different companies for the system. With the modifications to the GSL, I'm reasonably certain to see more start showing up. I rather not say their might be enough 3rd parties (since I always like more options), I think that I'm happy with the options that I do have.
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Contributor, RPG Superstar 2008 Top 6
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Yep. Supposedly one of the major WotC profit centers, along with novels. At one point miniatures were up there, too.They are, it's the star wars minis that sell.. but then again any star wars toy sells.
At one point, the D&D mini sales were verging on spectacular. Wouldn't be shocked if Star Wars has gotten ahead of them, what with so many heavy DDM buyers dropping out or cutting back. The traffic on the DDM boards is maybe a quarter of what it was 2 years ago.
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Well in the long run it could cause some issues. 3pp's kinda pick up the slack in the suppliment arena...seems to me at least.
That's if you want to believe EVERY D&D player buys more then the PH.
I know many D&D players that only own the 3e PHB.
I know even more D&D players that own less then 10 books, the majority being WOTC books.
I know very few people (excluding the internet) that have more then 10 3e D&D books. <- Fewest category right here.
Kinda takes the pressure off of WotC.
The financial pressure you mean. WOTC abandoned making adventures for a time in 3e because they weren't selling. They only came back to it because companies like Green Ronin showed THEM what it takes to make a good adventure.. and what did WOTC do? They hired freelancers like James Jacobs to do the work for them.
No 3pp's doing those books could cause some problems for WotC in the end. If they are counting on 3pp's to pick up the slack.
But they're not counting on them. The GSL is written to discourage third parties from making products that might compete with their Core products. WOTC only wants you to buy a 4e book about elves from them.
I mean if their plan is to get 3pp's on board..and they don't want to...they could always just say "Screw you guys!" and get rid of the GSL all together. I would almost rather they do that. Then there wouldn't be any argument.
Their plan is to make it look like they're not saying "Screw you guys!" even though that's exactly what they're doing.
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At one point, the D&D mini sales were verging on spectacular. Wouldn't be shocked if Star Wars has gotten ahead of them, what with so many heavy DDM buyers dropping out or cutting back. The traffic on the DDM boards is maybe a quarter of what it was 2 years ago.
I believe this has to do with the continuous downhill quality of their miniatures and I'm sure the new DDM line that's basically preconstructed has a lot to do with lack of interest.
If they terminated the GSL (or never made one) there would still be people arguing over how WotC should allow it against people saying that they know WotC did a great thing by eliminating the GSL.
Even if they terminated the GSL, 3PP could still product 4e compatible products using current copyright law. What they couldn't use is WotC logos to promote its compatibility. The same goes with Paizo's PFRPG compatibility logo, you don't need it, especially since Paizo's system is based on the OGL, but you can't claim compatibility either.
That's if you want to believe EVERY D&D player buys more then the PH.
I know many D&D players that only own the 3e PHB.
I know even more D&D players that own less then 10 books, the majority being WOTC books.
I know very few people (excluding the internet) that have more then 10 3e D&D books. <- Fewest category right here.
Yup, in one of my games we have:
Me, the DM, with large stock of WotC books, 3PP products.My wife, with a PHB.
Guy gamer 1, occasional DM, with moderate stock of WotC books (probably less than 10).
Gal gamer 1, wife of guy gamer 1, PHB only.
Gal gamer 2, PHB only.
Guy gamer 2, Spell Compendemium, uses printed out SRD for PHB
Gal gamer 3, nothing, bums off of guy gamer 2.
Gal gamer 4, occasional gamer, PHB only.
Yep. Supposedly one of the major WotC profit centers, along with novels. At one point miniatures were up there, too.They are, it's the star wars minis that sell.. but then again any star wars toy sells.
That's because Vic Wertz hoards them. ;)
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My edition of choice is better because I chose it.
A True believer knows that what he believes is true. If it was not true he would not believe it.
Look at M.L. and his new edition of a popular belief back in 1517.
Almost 500 years later the edition shism still exists.
So I guess it will take a few more years for the rage to calm down.