
P.H. Dungeon |

Despite what a lot of people say. I think that many of the people who say they won't be giving 4E a shot will cave when the goods come out. I have a feeling that even though WotC isn't winning over many people with their marketing these days the actual goods will be solid when they hit the shelves. I think the new game mechanics will in all likelihood be an improvement, and from the sounds of it they will be different enough that straight conversion of 3E mods won't be all that easy. Therefore, paizo needs to take a look at history. After the release of second edition, most people did switch, and anyone new to the game (like myself) picked up second edition not first edition rules (for the most part). The same thing happened with the third edition, and in all probability will happen with 4th. Furthermore, the people who don't switch tend to be the type of consumer who don't buy all that much anyhow, and even though they may make a big fuss on the internet they aren't making any big contributions to the gaming economy. People who spend money on rpgs want a steady flow of cool new products to buy, and they won't be able to resist buying 4th edition. New comers to the game will also gravitate to the newest edition.
My prediction is that there will some resistance at first, but I think that the quality of the product will be solid and win over many sceptics. The ones who resist will be nostalgic whiners who only buy a handful of books anyhow. The people who spend money month to month on books will convert, and those are your most valuable customers. For paizo to be successful I think they will need to assimilate. I suggest sooner rather than later.

P.H. Dungeon |

As a further rant I have seen a lot of people on these boards talk about how they love the game and have been playing for 20 odd years, and don't like the corporate direction it has gone, and the proliferation of supplements etc.. They complain that wizards doesn't care about them blah, blah, blah. Well why should they. Just because you love the game and play on a regular basis doesn't make you a customer. If you don't actually buy books for the game on a regular basis the only thing they will want to know from you is why you aren't buying new books. If the reason is because you aren't interested in new books and supplements, then your opinion means nothing to them because you aren't really a customer.

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Shall we take this to mean that Paizo has made a decision to convert to 4E, the only question being how soon you can do so logistically?
No. We haven't made a decision yet. Honestly, I think our final decision will be made based on whether the terms of the OGL are acceptable or not more than they will on the mechanics of the new rules. My _assumption_ is that the rules will be able to work with a variety of settings, but honestly I've stopped reading every snippet posted on EN World every day because I keep assuming we'll get the actual rules "any day now."
I find it difficult to imagine, as I said, that the new rules won't be able to model just about anything. Perhaps it is overly optimistic of me to assume that this version of D&D will have the same design goals as the three that preceeded it. I dunno. I've been disappointed before.
I'd be very disappointed if the rules forced us to make all kinds of changes to our world, because that would, in my view, mean that the rules are sub-standard. If I can't pull off Golarion, a very standard (albeit as awesome as we can make it) fantasy world with the new D&D rules, then the new D&D rules are flawed and we won't be using them.
The thing is, if I can't make Golarion work with the rules, a LOT of D&D players out there aren't going to be able to make their worlds work either. And THAT would be a huge mistake by WotC, in my view.
I do not expect WotC to make a huge mistake.

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This has led some to see a glimmer of hope Paizo wouldn't get on the 4E train -- a misplaced hope, I might add.
I don't think that hope is misplaced at all.
We basically have two options, and haven't made a decision yet (because we _can't_ make the decision yet). I don't think it's unreasonable to hold out hope for the option that you prefer, and I encourage everyone on either side of this thing to keep hoping until the day I say definitively which way we're going.
I trust Wizards to create a streamlined and more fun rules system for the new game. Some folks tell me I am being too optimistic, and perhaps foolishly so given the events of the last year, but I remain hopeful.
I will remain hopeful until we start buring deadlines for the Gen Con products (including the third Adventure Path), at which point I'm going to have to make a decision one way or another. And I'm not going to make a decision to publish under a system and an OGL that I have never seen.
I'm not saying that to call out WotC or tell them to speed up or whatever. They are on their own schedule and I respect that. I'm just saying that sticking with 3.5 remains just as viable an option here on post #954 than it was on post #1, and it will remain so until I have enough information to make an informed decision.
That hasn't happened yet, and you'll know when it does.

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As a further rant I have seen a lot of people on these boards talk about how they love the game and have been playing for 20 odd years, and don't like the corporate direction it has gone, and the proliferation of supplements etc.. They complain that wizards doesn't care about them blah, blah, blah. Well why should they. Just because you love the game and play on a regular basis doesn't make you a customer. If you don't actually buy books for the game on a regular basis the only thing they will want to know from you is why you aren't buying new books. If the reason is because you aren't interested in new books and supplements, then your opinion means nothing to them because you aren't really a customer.
As long as these people are buying Paizo products they are _MY_ customers, and I certainly care about the opinions of people who put food on my table and the table of Paizo's employees.
So, carry on, all!

Sharoth |

P.H. Dungeon wrote:As a further rant I have seen a lot of people on these boards talk about how they love the game and have been playing for 20 odd years, and don't like the corporate direction it has gone, and the proliferation of supplements etc.. They complain that wizards doesn't care about them blah, blah, blah. Well why should they. Just because you love the game and play on a regular basis doesn't make you a customer. If you don't actually buy books for the game on a regular basis the only thing they will want to know from you is why you aren't buying new books. If the reason is because you aren't interested in new books and supplements, then your opinion means nothing to them because you aren't really a customer.As long as these people are buying Paizo products they are _MY_ customers, and I certainly care about the opinions of people who put food on my table and the table of Paizo's employees.
So, carry on, all!
~grins~ Damn straight we are. And if you all at Paizo keep up the good work, we will remain your customers.

The unscrupulous Dr. Pweent |

I don't think the Points of Light concept is going to be as hard-wired into the rules as you seem to.
Furthermore, I don't think the "Points of Light" philosophy is as sweeping a change as many people take it as. It just comes across to me as positing: civilization is the exception, not the rule. Travel is inherently risky; don't count on being protected by anyone but yourself once you leave its confines. If you're going overland, expect to roll on a wandering monster table or three.
The funny thing to me is that for all the PoL apprehension, Varisia seems like a quintessential Points of Light setting. No doubt that's not true for the whole of Golarion, but Varisia seems exactly that: settlers moving back into and building up communities amongst the remains of an ancient, once-great empire.
That said, I do also agree that they are more talking about the default philosophy of the game, and you'll be able to work in different styles. What I find most interesting about it is that the setting that to me most diverges from the Points of Light concept is Wizards' own new baby, Eberron. Between lightning rails and airships, and the magic-industrial complex feel they have going, Khorvaire seems like it's pushed hard at the far side of the scale away from PoL. (Now Xen'drik on the other hand is a fine site for PoL style adventures.)

das schwarze Auge |

As a further rant I have seen a lot of people on these boards talk about how they love the game and have been playing for 20 odd years, and don't like the corporate direction it has gone, and the proliferation of supplements etc.. They complain that wizards doesn't care about them blah, blah, blah. Well why should they. Just because you love the game and play on a regular basis doesn't make you a customer. If you don't actually buy books for the game on a regular basis the only thing they will want to know from you is why you aren't buying new books. If the reason is because you aren't interested in new books and supplements, then your opinion means nothing to them because you aren't really a customer.
It's a safe bet that I've spent more than $1,000 a year since 3.0 came buying D&D 3.x products (I know this because my game store gives me a discount based on how much I buy every year, and that discount has been pegged for many years now). I also have almost every 2E Greyhawk, Planescape, and FR supplement every printed for 2E, a fair chunk of Dark Sun, Ravenloft, etc., as well as a great many supplements that were not campaign specific. I have pretty much everything ever made for core 1E. Does that make me a customer? No. Does that give me the right to opine? No. Am I allowed to voice my opinion of the direction the company is taking their new product because of past purchases? Not even close. I'm a customer if they want me to buy even one single product from their new line and that gives me the right to voice my opinion.
Bloody 'ell, but you're one arrogant chit.

P.H. Dungeon |

If you've spent over a grand in 3E products I'd say you are pretty good customer, and yes everyone has right to an opinion. I'm just saying that if you don't buy books but play the game, you don't normally consume their product, and your opinion won't matter as much to them- though they will be looking to find ways to get you buy more books.
P.H. Dungeon wrote:As a further rant I have seen a lot of people on these boards talk about how they love the game and have been playing for 20 odd years, and don't like the corporate direction it has gone, and the proliferation of supplements etc.. They complain that wizards doesn't care about them blah, blah, blah. Well why should they. Just because you love the game and play on a regular basis doesn't make you a customer. If you don't actually buy books for the game on a regular basis the only thing they will want to know from you is why you aren't buying new books. If the reason is because you aren't interested in new books and supplements, then your opinion means nothing to them because you aren't really a customer.It's a safe bet that I've spent more than $1,000 a year since 3.0 came buying D&D 3.x products (I know this because my game store gives me a discount based on how much I buy every year, and that discount has been pegged for many years now). I also have almost every 2E Greyhawk, Planescape, and FR supplement every printed for 2E, a fair chunk of Dark Sun, Ravenloft, etc., as well as a great many supplements that were not campaign specific. I have pretty much everything ever made for core 1E. Does that make me a customer? No. Does that give me the right to opine? No. Am I allowed to voice my opinion of the direction the company is taking their new product because of past purchases? Not even close. I'm a customer if they want me to buy even one single product from their new line and that gives me the right to voice my opinion.
Bloody 'ell, but you're one arrogant chit.

Dungeon Grrrl |

Despite what a lot of people say. I think that many of the people who say they won't be giving 4E a shot will cave when the goods come out.
After the release of second edition, most people did switch, and anyone new to the game (like myself) picked up second edition not first edition rules (for the most part).
Therres a huge difference though between any other edition change and this one. The old rules werren't still being sold amnd supported. when Wotc went to 3e, 2nd ed hadn't been supported in a while.
But not there is the OGL. If Paizo wants to, they can put out their own PHB with 3.5 rules. If they think they need to amke a few tweaks (so graping a troll doesn;t stop all game mommentum) they can do that. And then paizo can say "Yeah, you can change eiditons -- or you can keep on playing what you have and wee'll make new adventures, new ruiles and new ideads for your EXISTING games.
Pathfinder and Kobold Qurterly can easily replace Dungeon and dragon. They'll do a better job than the onoine heresies currently called Dungeon and Dragon, in fact.
I beleive the reason people switchec every other time, after initial resistence, is that they felt there were no alternatives. If Paizo and necormancer and Goodman Games and a hundred basement games pdf companines give people a way to play their owld games, I think a lot fewer people will switch.
And erik already knows the OGL rules for those older games. And, of course, if he doesn't sweitch, and 4e isn;t a huge hit, WotC might well make their new OGL friendlier in a year or two, and then erik could ask people if they want to switch or not.
Of, Gammastry could switch, but not Pathfinder. Or whatever, erik's got choices.
Beleiving exactly the same thing that has always happened in a new environment is a bad call.

P.H. Dungeon |

Good points. However, there was always competition against dnd. After playing 2E for several years I switched to shadowrun and didn't really look at dnd again for several years. However, when 3E came out I went back to dnd because I really liked the changes they made to the game. These days there is more competition than ever, so their products need to be better than ever if they want to make money.
Another problem, and I don't know how prolific it is, is that a lot of people buy a few core books and then get all their supplements through illegal downloading of PDFs. I know a lot of gamers that only own a handful of books and have access to every other book because of illegal downloading. However, even these players like to own a physical copy of the core books, so it pays to release new core rules from time to time. The key is to make sure that they are actually significantly better than the previous rules.
P.H. Dungeon wrote:Despite what a lot of people say. I think that many of the people who say they won't be giving 4E a shot will cave when the goods come out.
After the release of second edition, most people did switch, and anyone new to the game (like myself) picked up second edition not first edition rules (for the most part).
Therres a huge difference though between any other edition change and this one. The old rules werren't still being sold amnd supported. when Wotc went to 3e, 2nd ed hadn't been supported in a while.
But not there is the OGL. If Paizo wants to, they can put out their own PHB with 3.5 rules. If they think they need to amke a few tweaks (so graping a troll doesn;t stop all game mommentum) they can do that. And then paizo can say "Yeah, you can change eiditons -- or you can keep on playing what you have and wee'll make new adventures, new ruiles and new ideads for your EXISTING games.
Pathfinder and Kobold Qurterly can easily replace Dungeon and dragon. They'll do a better job than the onoine heresies currently called Dungeon and Dragon, in fact.
I beleive the reason people switchec every other time, after initial resistence, is that they felt there were no alternatives. If Paizo and necormancer and Goodman Games and a hundred basement games pdf companines give people a way to play their owld games, I think a lot fewer people will switch.
And erik already knows the OGL rules for those older games. And, of course, if he doesn't sweitch, and 4e isn;t a huge hit, WotC might well make their new OGL friendlier in a year or two, and then erik could ask people if they want to switch or not.
Of, Gammastry could switch, but not Pathfinder. Or whatever, erik's got choices.
Beleiving exactly the same thing that has always happened in a new environment is a bad call.

Dungeon Grrrl |

Bit this is the first time the competition against DnD is... DnD! I'm not talking about other rpgs that might attract your attention, or might not. I am talking about the existing DnD consumer, who wants to play DnD, now can keep playing what he has, or learn a new game.
Sure, new customers may pick up the new, flashy core crules. But how many tiems have people said the best way to learn DnD is from existing DnD players? And if those players decide to stick with what they ALREADY know and like, I see no reason for them to pay out $120 for the core rules of a different version of their game when, unlike EVERY other time this has happened, there can be quality companies putting out new stuff for what they aready have.
You are, of course, right about downlaods. So i suspect most DnD players will get an illegal pdf and look at it to decide if they want to change or not, just like they do with music. And, I suspect, most won't see a need to change if Paizo has good stuff for their existing rules.
If Paizo goes 4e I'm not sure what I'll do. But if they don't, they get as many gaming dollars as I have to spend.

maliszew |

We haven't made a decision yet.
See, from my perspective -- and I'll admit it's an eccentric one -- I have some difficulty reconciling "we haven't made a decision whether to use 4E or not" and "I can't imagine WotC will screw up so badly that we wouldn't use 4E." I understand the point you are making: you don't yet have the rules so you can't be 100% certain that your expectations regarding them will be fulfilled. However, what you are saying at bottom (and, to be fair, you have always said this) is that you would vastly prefer to go 4E and see no reason why you won't go 4E but, ultimately, whether Paizo does or not depends on WotC's delivery of solid rules to you in a timely fashion. Is that correct?
I'm only asking for this clarification because I think a lot of people are working under the assumption that you have no preferences one way or the other and that there's thus a reasonable chance you won't adopt 4E.

maliszew |

We basically have two options, and haven't made a decision yet (because we _can't_ make the decision yet). I don't think it's unreasonable to hold out hope for the option that you prefer, and I encourage everyone on either side of this thing to keep hoping until the day I say definitively which way we're going.
Fair enough. I think that's a recipe for some major disappointment, though. As I'm sure you know, a lot of D&D players, for reasons both rational and not, see 4E as a "betrayal" (to use a very loaded word) of both them personally as customers and of the things they love about the game. For some it's meta-setting elements like making succubi devils or calling high elves eladrin. For others, it's the shift in emphasis toward per encounter abilities and making even low level adventurers uber-competent within their spheres. Consequently, these people are looking for someone, anyone to whom they can turn for the vision of D&D they love.
Right now, that's Paizo, because you guys have always shown great respect for the game, its traditions, and its players. That love isn't marketing hype or false friendship designed solely to sell more product. Consequently, a lot of gamers think of Paizo as "gamers like us" in a way they don't think of WotC's R&D team (rightly or wrongly is immaterial). And of course "gamers like us" will be just as incensed about 4E as they are. I personally think they're going to be in for a rude awakening when you announce you're going 4E, because the odds of your not converting are slim.
I say this mostly from an academic standpoint, so take my words with many grains of salt. The advent of 4E has clarified a lot of things in my mind regarding what I want out of D&D and how I plan to proceed. While I'd certainly prefer if Paizo stayed with v.3.5 or developed their own game from that edition, I won't be heartbroken either way. Maybe that's true for most gamers, despite their emotional responses nowadays, but I wouldn't bet on it.

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I weighed in early on this and as time has passed it has solidified my thoughts on the whole subject. I have now DMed the first two Chapters of Pathfinder with my group and will be starting Chapter 3 in the next session. I find that Pathfinder is some of the best adventures I have ever used (and I have used many). I do not have time to create something from scratch these days and frankly when there is so much published material out there I cannot justify the time or energy that it takes. Even if I am using an existing world like the Forgotten Realms. And Frankly I will never be as good at it as Doctor James and crew are.
I am more interested in Pathfinder than I am in the structure in which it is created. I will follow Paizo in which ever direction they go. And at this point I may jump back and forth between systems depending what I am playing so I do not have to convert everything.
I do have to say that I am not excited that my shelves of books will become obsolete. I also find that using Pathfinder I will probably never use all the Monster Manuals I own being most of the creatures are not OGL and will not make an appearance in all likihood - although I could always substitute, but then who wants to mess with someting so well done.

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As I'm sure you know, a lot of D&D players, for reasons both rational and not, see 4E as a "betrayal" (to use a very loaded word) of both them personally as customers and of the things they love about the game.
I loved Dungeon magazine. When wotc killed that, they lost me to 4E. So, yes, for what its worth, I see 4E as a betrayal. But I will continue to support Paizo.

Chris Perkins 88 |

As long as these people are buying Paizo products they are _MY_ customers, and I certainly care about the opinions of people who put food on my table and the table of Paizo's employees.So, carry on, all!
You are the man! I hope to be a Paizo customer for a long time.
BTW: Even if you do go to 4th edition, and I hope you don't, do you think you could produce a line of 3rd edition compatible adventures as part of your Gamemastery line? Just wondering if that's feasible...

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maliszew wrote:As I'm sure you know, a lot of D&D players, for reasons both rational and not, see 4E as a "betrayal" (to use a very loaded word) of both them personally as customers and of the things they love about the game.I loved Dungeon magazine. When wotc killed that, they lost me to 4E. So, yes, for what its worth, I see 4E as a betrayal. But I will continue to support Paizo.
Agreed. OF course, the more I hear about 4th edition fluff and mechanics, the more I feel that I won't support any company that makes the switch.

Dungeon Grrrl |

Erik Mona wrote:We haven't made a decision yet.See, from my perspective -- and I'll admit it's an eccentric one -- I have some difficulty reconciling "we haven't made a decision whether to use 4E or not" and "I can't imagine WotC will screw up so badly that we wouldn't use 4E."
How about "I think the rules are going to be good enough, but I think the OGL is going to blow, but I don't want to say that and tick off WotC, so I'm just not talking about it." ?
We get 3.5 forever under the OGL rules they've given us. there is no way they can ever take that away. I suspect they (WotC0 regret that a lot. So what if 4e is fine, but they are relased under a new OGL that lets WotC pull them at any time. Is Erik going to want to let WotC (the people who were so afraid of his success with Dungeon and Dragon they killed them at the height of their popularity, with no plan for dealing with customer anger), decide what he gets to [publish?
I don't think so.
I also suspect WotC is never going to give him the new rules as a preview. Even if he'd *rather* convert, I don't think they'll let him. He'll buy them off the rack like the rest of us. And I think they figure he doesn't have a viable alternative.
And I think they're wrong.
But until Erik sees the legal conditipons and has rules he *could* work with, he can't make a clear decision.
And, by the way, is there *anyone* on this board who'd *rather* see paizo go to 4e? I repsct that opinion if you have it (really`1), but I haven't noticed anyone makle that claim.
People who will go 4e if Paizo does, sure. Lots of them. But none who will ditch paizo if it stays 3.5-ish.

Aaron Whitley |

Despite what a lot of people say. I think that many of the people who say they won't be giving 4E a shot will cave when the goods come out. I have a feeling that even though WotC isn't winning over many people with their marketing these days the actual goods will be solid when they hit the shelves. I think the new game mechanics will in all likelihood be an improvement, and from the sounds of it they will be different enough that straight conversion of 3E mods won't be all that easy. Therefore, paizo needs to take a look at history. After the release of second edition, most people did switch, and anyone new to the game (like myself) picked up second edition not first edition rules (for the most part). The same thing happened with the third edition, and in all probability will happen with 4th.
Hey, you are welcome to your personal opinion of the game but so is everyone else and just as a matter of note, it is probably not a good idea to assume that one's opinions are fact, true, or reality.
Furthermore, the people who don't switch tend to be the type of consumer who don't buy all that much anyhow, and even though they may make a big fuss on the internet they aren't making any big contributions to the gaming economy. People who spend money on rpgs want a steady flow of cool new products to buy, and they won't be able to resist buying 4th edition. New comers to the game will also gravitate to the newest edition.
Talk about some BS assumptions and stereotyping. Where's your proof to back up those statements? Who says that all new products are cool? What makes you think we all agree on what is cool? Why would you assume that those who spend money on RPGs won't be able to resist buying 4E? Yes, new-comers to the game probably will gravitate to the newest edition, or to whatever edition the people who introduced them to the game happen to be playing. I know you're ranting, but give me a break.
My prediction is that there will some resistance at first, but I think that the quality of the product will be solid and win over many sceptics. The ones who resist will be nostalgic whiners who only buy a handful of books anyhow. The people who spend money month to month on books will convert, and those are your most valuable customers. For paizo to be successful I think they will need to assimilate. I suggest sooner rather than later.
Ahhh, more stereotyping and assumptions. So if you don't buy 4E you are a whiner (a nostalgic one to boot) and only buy a handful of books (how many is a handful because I'm a pretty large guy and have pretty big hands). If you spend money each month on books then you will convert (you have no choice! you must buy books!).
Hahahahahahaha, this has been a hilarious post. Thanks for the laugh.

maliszew |

I also suspect WotC is never going to give him the new rules as a preview. Even if he'd *rather* convert, I don't think they'll let him. He'll buy them off the rack like the rest of us. And I think they figure he doesn't have a viable alternative.
I don't think WotC is that Machiavellian. More likely than not, they're simply in over their heads and getting a draft rules document and OGL ready to help other companies is probably very, very low on their to-do list. I have little doubt WotC will get around to both, but not until their bigger fish are fried. I simply don't believe WotC is purposefully withholding information to screw over other companies.
And, by the way, is there *anyone* on this board who'd *rather* see paizo go to 4e? I repsct that opinion if you have it (really`1), but I haven't noticed anyone makle that claim.
People who will go 4e if Paizo does, sure. Lots of them. But none who will ditch paizo if it stays 3.5-ish.
I think very few of the pro-4E folks post here, for the same reason I no longer hang out at ENWorld: the vast majority of people who do post here are anti-4E (or at least strongly skeptical of it). But how many of the "3E forever" guys are there? Is it enough to support Paizo's business model? No one knows, not even Paizo, which is why there's this angst about the future.
My gut feeling is that Paizo could survive and do so quite well if they chose to make themselves the home for disaffected 3E players. However, could they do even better if they supported 4E? Almost certainly. The only real questions are: will 4E mesh well with the feel already established for Golarion? Will the new OGL be sufficiently liberal that Paizo can continue to operate as it has until now? Will Paizo capture a larger segment of the D&D market by going to 4E than they would be serving the remnant 3E community? Tough questions all and no easy answers to any of them.

CEBrown |
Despite what a lot of people say. I think that many of the people who say they won't be giving 4E a shot will cave when the goods come out. I have a feeling that even though WotC isn't winning over many people with their marketing these days the actual goods will be solid when they hit the shelves. I think the new game mechanics will in all likelihood be an improvement, and from the sounds of it they will be different enough that straight conversion of 3E mods won't be all that easy. Therefore, paizo needs to take a look at history. After the release of second edition, most people did switch, and anyone new to the game (like myself) picked up second edition not first edition rules (for the most part). The same thing happened with the third edition, and in all probability will happen with 4th. Furthermore, the people who don't switch tend to be the type of consumer who don't buy all that much anyhow, and even though they may make a big fuss on the internet they aren't making any big contributions to the gaming economy. People who spend money on rpgs want a steady flow of cool new products to buy, and they won't be able to resist buying 4th edition. New comers to the game will also gravitate to the newest edition.
I think you're overlooking some other aspects of history:
1) There are still groups that play the original books (1e and OD&D) and 2e out there.2) Some games put out editions that sucked so badly, people went BACK (Shadowrun 3e, one version of Cyberpunk), etc.
It's too early to judge both the adoption rate and the success of 4e based on the past (which is mostly positive) or on the hints they've dropped (neutral tending to negative).

Andrew Crossett |

Dungeon Grrrl wrote:I also suspect WotC is never going to give him the new rules as a preview. Even if he'd *rather* convert, I don't think they'll let him. He'll buy them off the rack like the rest of us. And I think they figure he doesn't have a viable alternative.I don't think WotC is that Machiavellian. More likely than not, they're simply in over their heads and getting a draft rules document and OGL ready to help other companies is probably very, very low on their to-do list. I have little doubt WotC will get around to both, but not until their bigger fish are fried. I simply don't believe WotC is purposefully withholding information to screw over other companies.
The thing is, I don't think it's just our good old gaming buddies at WotC calling the shots anymore.
4e will be the first full-scale edition of D&D ever produced under a company that is publicly traded, rather than privately held.
This means that WotC will be required to come out with a product that will please shareholders...not a product that will please customers. That's the sad reality of working for a public corporation.
It used to be considered a truism that what makes the customers happy will also make the shareholders happy. But that's no longer necessarily true.
I think WotC is working under two basic mandates from Hasbro regarding 4e: make it sell better than 3e/3.5 ("as good as 3e" isn't good enough...products that merely tread water get punished by the shareholders), and make it sell to a younger audience. Hasbro is a toy and game company...40-year-old grognards are not part of their target demographic. They want the 15-year-olds with their disposable cash, their control of the definition of "cool", and their longer lifespans. (They'll still be buying game products when we old-schoolers are beginning to die off).
So, relying on WotC's competence, good intentions, or even good judgment doesn't necessarily mean we'll end up with a game we veterans like, or even one that fits in with the type of game we want to play. Perceptions will, of course, vary widely.
I think their push to bring in the kids at all costs is not likely to succeed. There's been a generational shift in the approach to gaming. Kids do it online. They see it as cheaper, easier, faster, less work, more fun. If I were 15 years old and didn't have 30 years of gaming history behind me, I'd probably think the same way. It's like trying to get kids to give up hip-hop and start listening to jazz instead.
WotC isn't Machiavellian, but Hasbro certainly is. As a corporation, they are practically required by law to be.
My guess (and this is really only a guess) is that the OGL will be more restrictive than before and may require actual approval by WotC, rather than the "publish what you want as long as you include a copy of the OGL" rule that has been in force. (Not that they'll vet every product published under the OGL, but they will vet which companies they give the license to). I would also think the new OGL will be terminable at WotC/Hasbro's discretion.

CEBrown |
Dungeon Grrrl wrote:I also suspect WotC is never going to give him the new rules as a preview. Even if he'd *rather* convert, I don't think they'll let him. He'll buy them off the rack like the rest of us. And I think they figure he doesn't have a viable alternative.I don't think WotC is that Machiavellian. More likely than not, they're simply in over their heads and getting a draft rules document and OGL ready to help other companies is probably very, very low on their to-do list. I have little doubt WotC will get around to both, but not until their bigger fish are fried. I simply don't believe WotC is purposefully withholding information to screw over other companies.
You also have to realize that they've had major personnel cuts and reassignments over the past few years (heck, many of the staffers who insisted there was no 4e on the "near horizon" may have BELIEVED it at the time and be working elsewhere now!)... When they started shuffling personnel around three years ago, they also stopped "playing well with others" from some of what I've heard from other companies that HAD worked with them in the past.
Helping anyone else is at the very bottom of their priority list, I can pretty much guarantee.
Darrell |
Hmmm...well, I'm a bit late to this party, but...
The fact of the matter is, I am, and will continue to be, a WotC customer...simply by virtue of the fact that I buy D&D Miniatures. On the 'book' end of the deal, however, I own the PHB, DMG, and MM, and that's it. I bought a metric ton of 3.X product, but found that I never used it. In fact, most of my 'non-mini' gaming cash went to Dungeon and Dragon.
Currently, my purchases are entirely Paizo (Pathfinder and GameMastery product) and WotC (D&D Miniatures). I purchase Pathfinder primarily because it's quality material--as I expected from the word "go." Paizo gained my trust with high quality work on Dungeon and Dragon magazines, and continues to hold it through the quality of their current material. Therefore: wherever goes Paizo, I follow.
If the Paizo-folk decide to switch over, I probably will, too. If not, I'll stay right where I am. My personal preference would be a Pathfinder "3.75" RPG; because then more of my 'gaming' money would be going to a company who has consistently worked to gain and keep my respect.
Well, that's about enough outta me.
Regards,
Darrell King

Aaron Whitley |

I don't think WotC is that Machiavellian. More likely than not, they're simply in over their heads and getting a draft rules document and OGL ready to help other companies is probably very, very low on their to-do list. I have little doubt WotC will get around to both, but not until their bigger fish are fried. I simply don't believe WotC is purposefully withholding information to screw over other companies.
I think very few of the pro-4E folks post here, for the same reason I no longer hang out at ENWorld: the vast majority of people who do post here are anti-4E (or at least strongly skeptical of it). But how many of the "3E forever" guys are there? Is it enough to support Paizo's business model? No one knows, not even Paizo, which is why there's this angst about the future.
My gut feeling is that Paizo could survive and do so quite well if they chose to make themselves the home for disaffected 3E players. However, could they do even better if they supported 4E? Almost certainly. The only real questions are: will 4E mesh well with the feel already established for Golarion? Will the new OGL be sufficiently liberal that Paizo can continue to operate as it has until now? Will Paizo capture a larger segment of the D&D market by going to 4E than they would be serving the remnant 3E community? Tough questions all and no easy answers to any of them.
I also get the impression that WoTC is a little in over their heads. It seems to me that they have too many people working on too many different products instead of having one person direct the show and everyone else focused on individual products. Dungeon and Dragon certainly seemed to come across that way.

Dorje Sylas |

I think more people are on that 3.75 page Darrell. I don't think "Cave" is the correct word to describe what's going to happen with the current nay-sayers. Clubbing 4e over the head making off with platinum while leaving the tons of useless copper coinage seems the most likely outcome. I am actually expecting one or more 3rd party publishers or groups to write such an "edition" if the new OGL/d20 allows for that.

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I am going to give 4.0 a chance and at least look at the PHB, beyond that I doubt I'll switch. I have actually been thinking that if Paizo switched I would probably cancel my subscription to Pathfinder. I love your company, don't get me wrong, I just like 3.5 and am very comfortable with the rules. I also have about a hundred Dungeon magazines that need exploring. For my sake i hope that you at least finish the current adventure path "Rise of the Rune Lords" before switching to 4.0.
I was sad when Dungeon and Dragon went out of print and havent even looked at the WOTC site to check them out since. I like having the books in my hand and sitting down at the table with pen, paper, and dice. I don't play computer games as a rule and am not excited about everything going digital. I know its the way of the future and if its really really great I'll switch.
Keep up the good work.

Mace Hammerhand |

maliszew wrote:
Shall we take this to mean that Paizo has made a decision to convert to 4E, the only question being how soon you can do so logistically?No. We haven't made a decision yet. Honestly, I think our final decision will be made based on whether the terms of the OGL are acceptable or not more than they will on the mechanics of the new rules. My _assumption_ is that the rules will be able to work with a variety of settings, but honestly I've stopped reading every snippet posted on EN World every day because I keep assuming we'll get the actual rules "any day now."
I find it difficult to imagine, as I said, that the new rules won't be able to model just about anything. Perhaps it is overly optimistic of me to assume that this version of D&D will have the same design goals as the three that preceeded it. I dunno. I've been disappointed before.
I'd be very disappointed if the rules forced us to make all kinds of changes to our world, because that would, in my view, mean that the rules are sub-standard. If I can't pull off Golarion, a very standard (albeit as awesome as we can make it) fantasy world with the new D&D rules, then the new D&D rules are flawed and we won't be using them.
The thing is, if I can't make Golarion work with the rules, a LOT of D&D players out there aren't going to be able to make their worlds work either. And THAT would be a huge mistake by WotC, in my view.
I do not expect WotC to make a huge mistake.
Erik, that there are no major changes to other settings is a wrong assumption, at least I think it is.
From what I've read on the new classes the "New" D&D will be vastly different to the old(er) ones. Take the power-sources as an example. As for Wizards not doing it already...well, look at how Forgotten Realms is steam-rolled to adjust to the new system. If those changes weren't necessary from a game designer's point of view, why make them at all?
Powers per encounter, the pace will speed up, to the point where it's basically blood bowl or some such thing... If that's what you're aiming for, then what I've read in the first 3 Pathfinder adventures is not on par with 4e

Andrew Crossett |

I know I've already decided I'm not switching to 4e for any non-Paizo gaming I do. If Paizo switches I will probably reluctantly buy the core books just so I can continue with Pathfinder and GameMastery...in the hopes that Paizo will make liberal use of setting-specific rules to correct the glaring problems. (Maybe "Resurrect Sacred Cow" should be added to the Golarion spell list.)
But I won't be buying any 4e books beyond the core ones unless the final product turns out to be all kinds of wonderful for me...and just the previews I've seen already preclude that with 99% certainty.
I've been happily D&Ding since that day in 1978 when I bought the brand-new 1e Monster Manual, took it home and read it about 10 times not knowing what any of those numbers meant, but knowing that it was cool as hell. I gladly welcomed 2e and 3e, since there was still so much perfecting of the game left to do. 4e is the first edition I've seen (not counting 2e Players Options or 3.5) that seems to exist not to fix the game but to fix the bottom line.
The D&D train has pulled into the junction. Time for some of us to get off and others to get on.

maliszew |

The thing is, I don't think it's just our good old gaming buddies at WotC calling the shots anymore.
4e will be the first full-scale edition of D&D ever produced under a company that is publicly traded, rather than privately held.
This means that WotC will be required to come out with a product that will please shareholders...not a product that will please customers. That's the sad reality of working for a public corporation.
I don't think Hasbro is (currently) micro-managing WotC and giving them explicit marching orders. What seems far more likely is this: somebody in Hasbro notices that WotC did a survey a few years ago that indicated that the brand "Dungeons & Dragons" has a ridiculously high name recognition, on par with stuff like Star Wars or Kleenex. Granted, not many people can accurately describe what D&D is, but that's beside the point; it's a household name (or close to it). So Hasbro guy asks some pointed questions of WotC: why isn't D&D selling like hotcakes? Why isn't WotC licensing the hell out of it? Why is such a broadly recognized brand underperforming?
4E, I'll bet good money, is a calculated attempt not merely to correct the flaws and infelicities of v.3.5. It is also an attempt to make the D&D brand live up to its full earning potential. There is probably enormous pressure from Hasbro on WotC, some overt but mostly not, to make D&D BIG. To do that, they need to rework a lot of stuff, including the creation of new specifically D&D-branded IP. Thus we get all the breaks from the past, both rules-wise and lore-wise.
There's a lot riding on 4E's success. Little wonder WotC shows all the signs of cracking under the pressure. I probably would too.

maliszew |

As for Wizards not doing it already...well, look at how Forgotten Realms is steam-rolled to adjust to the new system. If those changes weren't necessary from a game designer's point of view, why make them at all?
While wholeheartedly agree with you that Erik is being naive to think 4E will not trash most existing D&D settings, I must point out that, so far as I know, Eberron is not getting a drastic overhaul to coincide with 4E. Granted, I personally think Eberron, as a native v.3.5 setting, was intended as a test bed for 4E concepts from the get-go, so maybe this isn't so surprising, but the argument could still be made that 4E won't necessarily demand much change from pre-existing settings.
Of course, if that's so, why trash the Realms in this way? Wouldn't it have been a great way to alleviate fears and allay concerns if the Realms had been kept as it was and the 4E rules were used to "make the Realms more like the Realms than it's ever been?" That is, show that 4E makes it easier to infuse the unique flavor of the Realms into your games than previous editions could? But then it'd be a lot tougher to sell new products, since how many times can you do a Waterdeep book and expect long-time fans to buy, rules changes or no? Much better that we change the Realms so radically that new source material is utterly new.
As I've said elsewhere, WotC doesn't make decisions in a vacuum and there are almost certainly non-game design explanations for many of the changes we're seeing. Gone are the days when companies designed products simply because they were cool.

Watcher |

Watcher! wrote:I've said I'd switch of Paizo does, and I haven't changed my mind. Though ya know? I'd happily stay if they didn't.This has been my position over the last month or so. And I think its still my position.
But it struck me today that on the budget I have, if I end up switching to 4.0, I'm going to have to put the Pathfinder subscription on hold for about 6 months, basically 1 AP in order to afford the rulebooks. (3x$40 =$120)
I wonder how many others will find themselves doing the same?
It will be an expense, very true. I think that's why I don't actually cheer for 4th edition, I merely don't contest it.
Personally I haven't worked with 3.5 long enough to see the shortcomings of it (yet).

Mace Hammerhand |

While wholeheartedly agree with you that Erik is being naive to think 4E will not trash most existing D&D settings, I must point out that, so far as I know, Eberron is not getting a drastic overhaul to coincide with 4E. Granted, I personally think Eberron, as a native v.3.5 setting, was intended as a test bed for 4E concepts from the get-go, so maybe this isn't so surprising, but the argument could still be made that 4E won't necessarily demand much change from pre-existing settings.Of course, if that's so, why trash the Realms in this way? Wouldn't it have been a great way to alleviate fears and allay concerns if the Realms had been kept as it was and the 4E rules were used to "make the Realms more like the Realms than it's ever been?" That is, show that 4E makes it easier to infuse the unique flavor of the Realms into your games than previous editions could? But then it'd be a lot tougher to sell new products, since how many times can you do a Waterdeep book and expect long-time fans to buy, rules changes or no? Much better that we change the Realms so radically that new source material is utterly new.
As I've said elsewhere, WotC doesn't make decisions in a vacuum and there are almost certainly non-game design explanations for many of the changes we're seeing. Gone are the days when companies designed products simply because they were cool.
It didn't work with Dragonlance Saga RPG, and Eberron... they claim they listened to the fans. My take on that is that Eberron is far too young to suffer from X-Men syndrome. Many of the things that may have forced this change were due to the amount of RSEs in the last couple of years.
Be that as it may, Wizards brought all their horses back to the stables: Dragonlance is back where the RPG-setting didn't flourish, Ravenloft is back to zero (basically), and the rest...well they did not live long enough to see 3e.
Makes one wonder what will happen to Krynn now?
I dare say that the OGL, if there is such a beast with 4e, will be in some ways similar than what Dungeon and Dragon magazines had to go through to see release. The way Wizards have reined in everything that was licensed to people who could make things work (Paizo, Margaret Weis, White Wolf), I suspect that this (at least for MW and WW) was also tied to the new (if any) OGL.
Hell, it might even be an LOGL...a limited OGL in terms that everything has to follow WOTC's rules etc.
Personally, I'm happy with 3.x and won't change. If Paizo switches to 4e I'll cancel my Pathfinder subscription as the material will be kinda sorta useless to me, and ever since Episode 1 I refuse to support a product I disagree with merely to hope for a better end.

Aaron Whitley |

maliszew wrote:Aw man, not ANOTHER one!?!?Archgamer wrote:Makes one wonder what will happen to Krynn now?It's about overdue for a reality warping apocalypse, isn't it?
There are still people left alive on that planet? After all the calamities that planet suffered I figured it would have fallen apart, collapsed, blown-up, slit its wrists or something.

Mace Hammerhand |

CEBrown wrote:There are still people left alive on that planet? After all the calamities that planet suffered I figured it would have fallen apart, collapsed, blown-up, slit its wrists or something.maliszew wrote:Aw man, not ANOTHER one!?!?Archgamer wrote:Makes one wonder what will happen to Krynn now?It's about overdue for a reality warping apocalypse, isn't it?
*hums* Another one bites the dust...

CEBrown |
CEBrown wrote:There are still people left alive on that planet? After all the calamities that planet suffered I figured it would have fallen apart, collapsed, blown-up, slit its wrists or something.maliszew wrote:Aw man, not ANOTHER one!?!?Archgamer wrote:Makes one wonder what will happen to Krynn now?It's about overdue for a reality warping apocalypse, isn't it?
It's becomming the Kenny of campaign settings.
Or maybe the Mystra...

P.H. Dungeon |

Sorry if it seemed I was trying to pass this stuff off as facts. It's my prediction of what I think will happen. We shall see.
P.H. Dungeon wrote:Despite what a lot of people say. I think that many of the people who say they won't be giving 4E a shot will cave when the goods come out. I have a feeling that even though WotC isn't winning over many people with their marketing these days the actual goods will be solid when they hit the shelves. I think the new game mechanics will in all likelihood be an improvement, and from the sounds of it they will be different enough that straight conversion of 3E mods won't be all that easy. Therefore, paizo needs to take a look at history. After the release of second edition, most people did switch, and anyone new to the game (like myself) picked up second edition not first edition rules (for the most part). The same thing happened with the third edition, and in all probability will happen with 4th.Hey, you are welcome to your personal opinion of the game but so is everyone else and just as a matter of note, it is probably not a good idea to assume that one's opinions are fact, true, or reality.
P.H. Dungeon wrote:
Furthermore, the people who don't switch tend to be the type of consumer who don't buy all that much anyhow, and even though they may make a big fuss on the internet they aren't making any big contributions to the gaming economy. People who spend money on rpgs want a steady flow of cool new products to buy, and they won't be able to resist buying 4th edition. New comers to the game will also gravitate to the newest edition.Talk about some BS assumptions and stereotyping. Where's your proof to back up those statements? Who says that all new products are cool? What makes you think we all agree on what is cool? Why would you assume that those who spend money on RPGs won't be able to resist buying 4E? Yes, new-comers to the game probably will gravitate to the newest edition, or to whatever edition the people who introduced them to the game happen to be playing. I know you're ranting, but give me a break.
P.H. Dungeon wrote:
My prediction is...

Darrell |
I think more people are on that 3.75 page Darrell. I don't think "Cave" is the correct word to describe what's going to happen with the current nay-sayers. Clubbing 4e over the head making off with platinum while leaving the tons of useless copper coinage seems the most likely outcome. I am actually expecting one or more 3rd party publishers or groups to write such an "edition" if the new OGL/d20 allows for that.
Even if the new OGL doesn't allow for it, I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of "3.75" product released under the current OGL. (I can't be revoked, after all; that clause is part of the OGL itself.) My own preference would be that Paizo release a "Pathfinder" or "GameMastery" RPG which fixes some of the current problem areas (grappling, Turn Undead, etc., etc.) with 3.5, but continues with about 90% of the current edition's mechanics and conventions.
At this point, I'd buy such a product sight unseen, simply by virtue of the quality the Paizo-folk put into their work. In fact, I did pick up the first issue of Pathfinder based solely on the Paizo run of Dungeon and Dragon. The strength of that first issue led me to have my FLGS add it to my "pull" file on an ongoing basis.
However, as I said previously, I'll wait to see the direction Paizo takes with 4e. If they switch, I probably will, too; but if they don't, then neither will I. I'll still be a WotC customer, however, because I happen to like the miniatures line (problematic though the random packaging issue may be).
Regards,
Darrell

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Ok, my turn to way in.
Three months ago the last AD&D campaign I was playing in wrapped up. It's not that we didn't want to keep playing, it's that the DM doesn't have time to put into it and would just rather play.
Another DM I play with, once every other week we play, is still going strong with 3.0. He lets us use the new books, spells, prestige classes, and such. But 3.0 rules remain the same. Where new stuff gets introduced, like immediate actions, he's incorporated those when they're needed, but they're only there for when they're needed. If it's in 3.0 it's the 3.0 version.
Just finished playing a 3.5 adventure and have taken over as DM, starting a Pathfinder adventure. I like 3/3.5 and the "problems" in it, if you can call them that, have never bothered me.
I know I'll be going 4.0. At least with the core books and anything that catches my interest. I can tell you now, that I'll probably being downloading most of the 4.0 books to "preview" them before I consider buying them (like I've done with 3.5.) I'm not getting suckered into buying books that I'll never use or will be compiled into more annoyingly expensive books in 4.5.
So that brings us to 3.75. Sorry, but I won't be buying it. Only 1 friend I have is interested in Pathfinder, he gets the books from the local game store. But none of the other people I play with plan on buying pathfinder stuff, so if I had to choose between 3.75 and 4.0, I choose 4.0 only because I KNOW that the people I play with will go 3/3.5 or 4.0. There's no way they'll consider a 3.75 published by a third party that may or may not be compatible with 3.0/3.5 stuff out of the book.

tdewitt274 |

I will remain hopeful until we start buring deadlines for the Gen Con products (including the third Adventure Path), at which point I'm going to have to make a decision one way or another. And I'm not going to make a decision to publish under a system and an OGL that I have never seen.
Alright, I'm going to apologize right now. I haven't read the 20 pages before this. Flay me now or later...
Back to the quote. Why not do something like what Green Ronin is doing for their Freeport campaign setting? Rules independant. That's the best kind of option, IMHO.
With a Player's Guide in the works, it can be adjusted to integrate the rules system. Better yet (if the new OGL allows it), dual stat it! 3.5 and 4.0 in the same book (if possible) would make lots of people happy.
Again, flay me alive if this has already been said.

P.H. Dungeon |

Several interesting suggestions in the last couple of posts, but not likely feasible. Paizo has already built a reputation for designing strong adventures. I would think that for Paizo to design a 3.75 would be a major undertaking with significant risk. I don't think they have the staff to keep up publishing the stuff the do and work on designing a new game system. Furthermore, competing with wizards on that level is likely a recipe of disaster. The loyal posters on these boards only make up a small fraction of the gaming community, so even if it sounds like they would get lots of support from us, that wouldn't necessarily translate to a successful product. I don't have any facts to support this, but I would imagine that the R&D budget for 4E is the biggest budget for an rpg in history, which hopefully will result in a superior game system to the current one. If it takes off paizo will be left behind if they try to go 3.75 or stick with 3.5- most people can't be bothered to take the time to do conversion. When I make adventures, generating stat blocks is one of the most time consuming parts of the job, so if those aren't part of the adventure I'm buying then I'm not interested in picking it up.
I can't see there being room in the adventures for both 3E and 4E stats, so I don't see it as a viable option. Furthermore, the pacing in 4E sounds like it will be quite a bit different, given that it now runs from 1st-30th level (I don't really know how that will translate when it comes to adventure and campaign design, but it will have a big impact I think), which means that they will need to revise how they plan out their adventure paths, and may be one of the biggest issue when it comes to 3E and 4E compatibility. For instance if you are now spacing monsters out much differently, so that a 3E CR 10 monster is now a 4E CR 15 monster, well that will make a big difference to adventure and encounter design.
Erik Mona wrote:I will remain hopeful until we start buring deadlines for the Gen Con products (including the third Adventure Path), at which point I'm going to have to make a decision one way or another. And I'm not going to make a decision to publish under a system and an OGL that I have never seen.
Alright, I'm going to apologize right now. I haven't read the 20 pages before this. Flay me now or later...
Back to the quote. Why not do something like what Green Ronin is doing for their Freeport campaign setting? Rules independant. That's the best kind of option, IMHO.
With a Player's Guide in the works, it can be adjusted to integrate the rules system. Better yet (if the new OGL allows it), dual stat it! 3.5 and 4.0 in the same book (if possible) would make lots of people happy.
Again, flay me alive if this has already been said.

Kata. the ..... |

Alright, I'm going to apologize right now. I haven't read the 20 pages before this. Flay me now or later...
Please flay tdewitt274, oh wait I did the same thing reading only pages 1 and 20. I agree with a lot of the posters from page 1 (the lords of the board) and will stay with Paizo. I will probably buy the 4e Players, DMG and Monster Manual, although only after talking with the owner of my FLGS. I have almost always ran bastardized campaigns. The moment I discovered Judges Guild, Arduin, etc. I learned that one only needs steal the needed rules. I added the Arduin crits to the 3e crits almost immediately, although this has been largely supplanted by the Critical Hit Deck. Now my gaming uses Lilith's DM Tools. Most players are happy with a game that moves well and they feel like they contribute to the outcome. Everyone loves it when the DM hands them a sheet of paper, with info for them to use as they see fit.
Considering online, paper and personally designed adventures, I have about 300 for 1-2e and a similar number for 3e (not counting the dozen or so that will ship when my GR number comes up). I could run in either system for decades. I don't need 4e but will continue to steal^H^H^H^H^Hborrow whatever works better from their system.

Heaven's Agent |

And, by the way, is there *anyone* on this board who'd *rather* see paizo go to 4e? I repsct that opinion if you have it (really`1), but I haven't noticed anyone makle that claim.
I would prefer to see this change, but this is primarily due to the fact that we all know Paizo will only make such a switch if 4E proves to be a worthy addition to the D&D game. As we have no idea how 4E will turn out, my opinion doesn't serve much purpose in this conversation at the moment. Hence, I hadn't posted on the matter.

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However, what you are saying at bottom (and, to be fair, you have always said this) is that you would vastly prefer to go 4E and see no reason why you won't go 4E but, ultimately, whether Paizo does or not depends on WotC's delivery of solid rules to you in a timely fashion. Is that correct?
I'm only asking for this clarification because I think a lot of people are working under the assumption that you have no preferences one way or the other and that there's thus a reasonable chance you won't adopt 4E.
I have not spoken of my "personal preference" on the matter and don't plan to. I have to view this as a business decision, which doesn't always line up with my personal preferences.
From a business perspective, I believe the path of least resistance and (probably) highest sales is to go along with the flow and support the new edition. I am reasonably certain that the customers will be there for continued 3.5 support for at least a year or two after the launch of the new edition, but I am unconvinced that distributors and retailers feel the same way.
Whether or not we go with 4e "right away" is an issue of when we get the core rules and a draft of the SRD, but I wouldn't put too much emphasis on that point. When we get the material affects _when_ we might convert to the new edition, but there remains the question of "if," and that has everything to do with whether we think the game is cool, whether we think the audience (specifically "our" audience) will go for it, and whether it allows us to create the sorts of products we want to create.
None of that stuff has anything to do with when we get the rules.