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Even with absolute accuracy, the doom and gloom seems justified if not a bit understated.
I can add the anecdote that the barbarian in my DD Pale Mountain game managed to hit three times over the course of three combats. There was obviously bad luck involved, but the relatively low accuracy of PC vs. Monster makes it so that luck is a bit too dominant.
Really, the thing that matters is PC vs. Monster. The problem is that the "PC" that's currently built around is the most optimized possible PC (usually a fighter using their most accurate, magical weapon). Which means that anyone that isn't that guy is going to suffer.
I can add the anecdote that the barbarian in my DD Pale Mountain game managed to hit three times over the course of three combats. There was obviously bad luck involved, but the relatively low accuracy of PC vs. Monster makes it so that luck is a bit too dominant.
My pale mountain sorcerer cast a spell that came very very close to dealing zero damage: My spiritual weapon's 4 out of 5 attack rolls came up below ten (I needed around a 13 or 14 to hit).
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I once spent an entire 10+ hour session unable to roll higher than a 10 on my d20 for any of the countless skill checks in a PF1 home game. As unlucky as it was, that anecdote doesn't say much about the game itself - I rolled poorly and as a result I underperformed that night.
And again, these numbers are optimized to the extent that a given PC has the highest possible modifier on their attack stat and purchases items that improve their accuracy. It does not include bonuses or penalties from things like spells, positioning, buffs and debuffs, etc (aside from Barbarian Rage and Bard Inspire Courage, which are not limited in uses/day). Based on my DPS math I think the intent is to use the base accuracy and damage to separate character roles by class so that martial characters are more damaging, then use abilities and strategy in combat to further improve the odds. Melee characters can usually expect to add anywhere from +2 to +3 to their attack rolls just from low-level buffs and Flanking, which greatly increases damage. For instance, based on math comparing DPS with and without bonuses, a +2 to hit is worth anywhere from a 20% to a 33% damage increase.
Your anecdote speaks to something that is missing from 2nd edition, and something that people complain about often. In previous generations of the D&D system, as you leveled up, you managed to get more regular in your characters best stuff. Your skills reached a point where the die mattered less and less, barring a very difficult challenge or strong opponent. This no longer occurs in 2nd edition Pathfinder. We're stuck with having that "near coin flip" success rate from level 1 to level 20. While your anecdote is obviously a run of bum luck, it's a very real potential outcome and one that isn't terribly unlikely. In previous iterations, you could build a martial character to rely less on the die being 11+ and mitigate the "bad luck" of the die. In this system, you cannot and this is the result of it.I once spent an entire 10+ hour session unable to roll higher than a 10 on my d20 for any of the countless skill checks in a PF1 home game. As unlucky as it was, that anecdote doesn't say much about the game itself - I rolled poorly and as a result I underperformed that night.
And again, these numbers are optimized to the extent that a given PC has the highest possible modifier on their attack stat and purchases items that improve their accuracy. It does not include bonuses or penalties from things like spells, positioning, buffs and debuffs, etc (aside from Barbarian Rage and Bard Inspire Courage, which are not limited in uses/day). Based on my DPS math I think the intent is to use the base accuracy and damage to separate character roles by class so that martial characters are more damaging, then use abilities and strategy in combat to further improve the odds. Melee characters can usually expect to add anywhere from +2 to +3 to their attack rolls just from low-level buffs and Flanking, which greatly increases damage. For instance, based on math comparing DPS with and without bonuses, a +2 to hit is worth anywhere from a 20% to a 33% damage increase.
I've silently mused if the system could support a modest gain in success over 20 levels instead of the proverbial "coin toss" that many players feel it is. For example, maybe on levels 1-5 the math is 45-50% success, level 6-10 it is 50-55%, level 11-15 it becomes 55-60%, and level 16-20 it could be 60-65%. Note that these success rates are before buffing, circumstances, aid actions, etc.
I should clarify that I am not necessarily saying it has to be these percentages, just using them as an example and it doesn't have to be uniform across all skills/saves/attacks, just that there is a slight gain. This seems to reach middle ground between those decrying treadmill vs those seeking a well balanced game. In combat, the higher success rate can be offset with monsters having higher HP's which should ultimately end with creatures dying at similar speeds.
so this chart is saying that a fighter does on average 16.5 damage at lv9 right? wow, let me tell you about this super OP damage build. It's magic missile. Like the full round action version does 10.5 average damage per heightening, and heightening happens at the same level that people are expected to have a magic weapon upgrade. So at lv9 MM is averaging 31.5 damage from your top tier spells and 21 damage from your second best slots.
These two tiers, lv5 and lv9 seem to be competitive and great for all levels. And the spell gets better from there. Super OP damage
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so this chart is saying that a fighter does on average 16.5 damage at lv9 right? wow, let me tell you about this super OP damage build. It's magic missile. Like the full round action version does 10.5 average damage per heightening, and heightening happens at the same level that people are expected to have a magic weapon upgrade. So at lv9 MM is averaging 31.5 damage from your top tier spells and 21 damage from your second best slots.
These two tiers, lv5 and lv9 seem to be competitive and great for all levels. And the spell gets better from there. Super OP damage
If you're asking if a caster's highest-level Magic Missile spell cast as 3 actions can outdamage a single attack from an optimized Fighter with no buffs, the answer is of course "Yes". However factor in Strike 2 damage (which is now included as a -5 attack sheet) and you'll find it gets a lot closer - 26 damage over 2 actions done at-will versus 31.5 damage over three actions done at most 4 times a day. Of course, this is without buffs or other attack bonuses - if the Fighter is Flanking their target then they deal 33 damage with two strikes, out-damaging the Wizard's limited spell slots with an action to spare. With a +3 bonus, such as from Flanking and Bless, they deal 36.4 damage over two Strikes.
So yes, Magic Missile cast with your highest-level spell slot using an entire turn can outdamage an optimized Fighter as long as the Fighter is also not buffed and attacking more than once.
That said, Magic Missile should probably not be anybody's go-to damage spell - it can't crit, won't trigger Weakness, and is generally less valuable against equal-level enemies than just supporting your melee damage dealers. Magic Missile is best used against enemies that are actually hard to hit or have strong saves vs Magic and against enemies that are close to being KOd. The benefit of Magic Missile is the reliability of the damage it puts out, not the sheer amount of damage.
This update includes a Fighter Multiclass tab, which gives said multiclass to the Alchemist, Bard, Cleric, Druid, Sorcerer, and Wizard builds to see how the larger damage die and increased attack bonus later on impacts overall damage. All 2H builds use a d12 weapon starting at Level 2 when they get Fighter Dedication, and all 1H builds use a d8 weapon. Each class also takes Weapon Expert - Alchemists at Level 12 and all others at Level 14 (since they don't get a class feat at Level 12 to take it on time).
My observation is that this makes spellcasters much more competitive with materials, especially the Bard. Magical Striker runs about even with the 2H builds up until Level 20 when the feat stops being beneficial. In theory the 2H Rogue could use this as well, but I'd like to wait to run math on that until Monday since we're getting additional options for Rogues then. The Barbarian Multiclass may also impact damage numbers as well.
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This next update is a little different from my usual, as it isn't a new spreadsheet tab... technically. However, I have a pretty good feeling that this is going to be quite possibly the most useful addition to my ongoing project.
Presenting, the DPS Calculator.
To use this spreadsheet you'll need to Make a Copy so you can edit it yourself. From there, you can follow the instructions at the bottom to calculate DPS by entering the right numbers into the yellow cells and selecting the correct value from the dropdown menus in orange cells. I've tried to make the process as simple as possible for the end user, so hopefully you all find it simple.
The main benefit of the DPS Calculator is to find DPS numbers for a wide variety of situations relatively quickly. With this tool, you can find the damage of attacks against monsters of any level, using weapons of any die size, with variable modifiers to account for any situational bonuses and penalties. I've included two separate areas for AC / TAC calculation in Step 3 - the top box pulls Average AC and TAC from my previous "Creature Stats by Level: Averages by Level (Minus Outliers)" sheet, allowing you to estimate damage against creatures of a known level but with an unknown AC / TAC, while the bottom box allows the user to enter a specific AC / TAC for more specific data. You can also determine how much your expected damage changes with various ability scores, weapons, and proficiency levels between builds within the same class!
Coming soon, I will be working on a new spreadsheet for Spell Damage. Compiling the damage of every spell in the game is going to take a lot of work, but it's certainly going to be valuable information. And since I have the Saves listed of every creature, I can actually calculate expected spell damage with saving throws factored in!
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I have a spreadsheet for average damage on spells now, but it needs some cleaning up before I release it. For those of you wondering, the highest-damagevspells in each category are:
vs Fort: Disintegrate, Heal/Harm is a close second.
vs Reflex: Meteor Swarm, Cone of Cold a close second. Sunburst is far and away superior when used vs Undead.
vs Will; Phantasmal Killer. Crisis of Faith is equal when used vs Divine spellcasters.
vs AC: Hurtling Stone (Power). Of course, the only other spell in this category is Telekinetic Projectile. Overall the damage is very low.
vs TAC: Surprisingly, Shocking Grasp. Yes, even if the enemy isn't wearing metal. Searing Light is better vs Fiends and Undead.
No Save: This one's tricky. 3-Act Magic Missile is the best spell damage, but the Elemental Tempest power hits harder if you activate it off a Level 7 or higher spell, and it's only a Reaction to use. Of the spells that damage attackers automatically, the Thunder Shield power easily doubles the damage of the next-best spell at al) levels.
To absolutely nobody's surprise, Disintegrate hits for the highest damage. I'm working on a final version of the sheet today and tomorrow, hopefully to release tomorrow night.
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As promised, I've been working on my Average Spell Damage sheet for what feels like 10 minutes but is closer to... maybe 6 hours? More? I'm not certain. Time is an illusion.
I spreadsheet, therefore I am.
This is an entirely new spreadsheet (the Hit Rate spreadsheet was getting too crowded anyway). Make sure to Make a Copy so you can make use of the new Spell Damage Calculator - this allows you to select a Spell, a Spell Level to cast it from, target either the Average Stats by Level numbers or a customized number, and fill out some character- and situation-specific information to pull the average damage a given spell should deal to the target creature. You can even set how many rounds you want Persistent Damage to tick for the whopping 7 spells, cantrips, and powers that actually apply it!
As far as damage is concerned, there are a few lower-level spells that are actually very competitive in damage with some higher-level ones when heightened. Shocking Grasp and Heal/Harm are the big standouts in single-target damage from lower-level spells, and any spells that deal higher damage against certain creature types are guaranteed to deal more damage than just about any other spell.
At the moment I haven't included spells that rely on enemy actions to trigger damage, such as Wall spells. They're too unpredictable to try DPS calculations on anyway. Nonetheless, if you're interested in such things I have a tab labeled Damage vs No Save / AC that lists all that good stuff. I also know for a fact that Disintegrate's numbers are wrong, since it has an obnoxious two-step verification on damage where you need an attack roll and a saving throw (which is also why the various poison spells aren't included). Rest assured I'll get a calculator for Disintegrate up and running soon.
Have fun!
Lunias- This has been an absolutely awesome read. The amount of work you put into this is staggering.
Quick question for you - What're your thoughts on the *reverse* aka- how monsters hit players?
Doing some napkin math on it and running some lower sessions in the playtest I've found it extremely easy to hit players, and often times have crits fly off from 17-18-19s on the dice , creating dire circumstances very quickly.
Looking at high level play it seems that this trend continues. Do you find similarly?
To be quite honest, I haven't done a lot of work on determining the reverse. It's a project I've had stewing on the back-burner for a while, but I left it on while going about my business preparing the main course and now it's boiling over, making a huge mess of a metaphor that's gone on too long.
I'm planning on finding AC numbers, but optimizing AC can be tricky given the number of possible armor and shield combinations usable. It'll require some time, so I likely won't have anything too definitive until next week. That said, I'm aware that a lot of people are seeing high attack bonuses from monsters, and it's something I'm going to be paying very close attention to while I get that spreadsheet typed up. The bulk of my legwork is done already, since I have my Average Stats by Level spreadsheet already completed, so if I can get a calculator running for Enemy Damage as well that'd just be fantastic.
For the record, the spreadsheet includes a calculator, a table of raw data that gives the base damage of each spell and some additional values for easier calculating, and a number of tabs with the total damage dealt by each spell, including Optimized Spellcasting Ability Scores and 1 turn of Persistent damage. These values are not calculated vs the Average Stats by Level numbers for enemies yet - that's an ongoing project. Also not included is Weakness, Resistance, or Immunity, which would require a lot more bookkeeping than I'm currently able to handle. That said, I'll be updating the sheet soon to include new cells for inputting custom Weakness and Resistance values.
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I've updated the Spell Damage sheet with some quality-of-life changes.
* Spells with Target: None such as Magic Missile now simply list the damage they deal at the bottom regardless of the target's stats in a "Damage vs None" category.
* There are now two additional variables in the Custom Defenses row for Weakness and Resistance - you can set those values to whatever you want and the adjustments will be reflected in the final numbers for the "DPS vs Custom Target Defenses" table.
* Applied Weakness and Resistance to Persistent Damage tables.
* Fixed an error where the result for Persistent Damage was pulling accuracy and damage numbers from the "Average Stats by Level" values instead of the custom defense values.
* Fixed an error where literally everything about Persistent Damage calculation was just completely bonkers. This time I've got it, promise.
* Added a "Crit Rate" value to the "Calculation Data" tables for easier formulas (try adding a MAX function to an IF/THEN statement sometime so we can rant about it to each other).
* Fixed all the issues adding a single line for the aforementioned "Crit Rate" variable caused with the formulas lower down in the spreadsheet.
And now I have a song for you.
99 sheet-breaking bugs in the code,
99 sheet-breaking buuuuuugs!
Take one down, patch it around,
107 sheet-breaking bugs in the code!
* Fixed an issue where Spellcasting Proficiency wasn't being added to your attack bonus.