Yet More Nerdage: Sword and Board vs Two Handed Fighter Edition


Prerelease Discussion


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On the heels of the Fighter Blog post, the issue of how shields work came up again. A lot of us believe that you shouldn't have to spend an action to raise a shield as, in real, keeping a shield raised in combat was fairly intuitive for anyone who knows how to use one.

So, being the nerd I am, I decided to run a simulation of how two identical fighters would fair against each other, with the only difference being their weapon load-out.

Meet Sam and Todd. Sam and Todd are twins with 16 STR, 12 DEX and 14 CON. They are both level 1 Human Fighters with Expert level Proficiency in their weapons (+1). They both wear armor that grants a +4 bonus to AC while allowing their +1 DEX to be effective.

Sam uses a longsword (d8) and a shield(+2 AC, Hardness 9).

Todd uses a Greataxe (d12), held in both hands.

Both are fans of Power Attack, so they both use it as much as possible.

They decide to have a LOT of friendly duels (1 million to be exact). First one to drop the other to zero wins!

More detailed information:

info:

Given my current understanding of the rules this should be the character's stats:

HP = 20, 8 (human) + 10 (fighter) + 2 (CON)
AC = 15, 10 (base) + 1 (DEX) + 4 (Armor)
Sam gets an additional +2 to AC, as he raises his shield every turn.
Sam does 2d8+3 (STR) on a power attack. (3d8+6 on a critical)
Sam soaks 9 damage once per round if he is hit. (I ignore "dents" since we don't know how they work yet)
Todd does 2d12 + 4 (STR x 1.5) on a power attack (2d12 + 8 on a critical)
Todd does 1d12 + 4 on a normal attack (2d12 + 8 on a crit)
Initiative is decided with a coin flip.

So what are the results?

*drum roll*

Sam wins about 60% of the time!

This means that the current shield mechanic, under the given circumstances is stronger than using both hands for one weapon.

Logically speaking, changing the shield mechanic to be a constant benefit, at least under these circumstances, would lead to an even more skewed match-up between Sam and Todd. My original intention WAS to re-run the simulation with the shield being an automatic benefit.

While I am personally of the camp that you shouldn't NEED to spend an action to raise a shield logically, I can't deny that shields appear to be slightly more powerful that two handed weapons already (which is also logical. Shields are OP IRL.)

In the interest of balance, it appears that the Shield mechanic should NOT change, unless two handed weapons get a substantial buff.

My guess is that given the new +/- 10 mechanic for critical success and failure, small bonuses and penalties to d20 rolls appear to have SUBSTANTIAL effects. The bonus AC from a shield appears to give a decent edge to those that use them.

Note: This is a very specific scenario, and results may vary under different scenarios. I could have also flubbed something. I am not perfect.

If anyone would like for me to change the variables and redo this test, I am willing to do so, if I have time. (Devs get priority!!!)

If there is another mechanic you would like me to run a simulation on, let me know. I'll see what I can do.

Note: I am NOT a dev, so I know as much as the average poster here. Please don't ask me to do simulations on mechanics we don't have any information on yet. I am willing to make a few guesses here and there, but I am not willing to guess how an entire mechanic works.


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Came for the Nerdrage, regretfully stayed for the Nerdage.


Based on your detailed info, did you account for the criteria on a 2H with power attack correctly? Shouldn't there be an extra D12? Also, is there confirmation that PA done are not multiplied on a critical?


Cheburn wrote:
Based on your detailed info, did you account for the criteria on a 2H with power attack correctly? Shouldn't there be an extra D12? Also, is there confirmation that PA done are not multiplied on a critical?

I believe it was said that power attack damage is just a flat extra die on top of normal damage. I took that as Power Attack damage not being multiplied on a critical hit, but I can code that in and see what happens. I'll edit later when I'm done.

EDIT: That was quick.

It appears to close the gap to 59% wins for Sword and Board.


I think how dents work will be key to balancing this


Browman wrote:
I think how dents work will be key to balancing this

I imagine so, yeah. That might only really apply for longer fights, though.

I think the impressive thing though is that 9 hardness is just for a wooden shield…


Browman wrote:
I think how dents work will be key to balancing this

.

Yes, is it possible to show how often in the 60% of wins did the shield take damage over it’s hardness more then 3 times? I don’t know how many dents will be in the playtest but the 3 strikes seems like a good guess. But that does make it complicated as then Sam just uses his 3rd action to attack.

Either way, they are certainly competitive and free action shield raise would seem to be OP.


Re-ran the simulation.

In my first run I assumed that you maintained your AC bonus if you used your reaction to soak a hit. I decided to see what happens if you lose your shield bonus to AC when you soak a hit.

Results are that S&B beats THF 56% of the time.

If I also account for Power Attack damage being multiplied on a crit, the results are about the same.


Rek Rollington wrote:
Browman wrote:
I think how dents work will be key to balancing this

.

Yes, is it possible to show how often in the 60% of wins did the shield take damage over it’s hardness more then 3 times? I don’t know how many dents will be in the playtest but the 3 strikes seems like a good guess. But that does make it complicated as then Sam just uses his 3rd action to attack.

Either way, they are certainly competitive and free action shield raise would seem to be OP.

I'll tweak the code to let me see how often the shield soaked 0, 1, 2, and 3+ times per fight and run it again. I'll edit this post with results.

EDIT:

Results:

Divide each number by 1,000,000, then multiply by 100 to get percentages.
Sword and Board wins: 561945
Zero soaks: 150134
One soak: 263885
Two soaks: 118366
Three or more soaks: 29560
Zero dents: 188087
One dent: 272086
Two dents: 89776
Three or more dents: 11996
Two Handed Fighter wins: 438055
Zero soaks: 0
One soak: 141763
Two soaks: 206114
Three or more soaks: 90178
Zero dents: 1415
One dent: 157318
Two dents: 212845
Three or more dents: 66477


thflame wrote:


If I also account for Power Attack damage being multiplied on a crit, the results are about the same.

That is pretty cool


thflame wrote:


Sam does 2d8+3 (STR) on a power attack. (3d8+6 on a critical)
Todd does 2d12 + 4 (STR x 1.5) on a power attack (2d12 + 8 on a critical)

I presume the 2d12 on the second line is a typo in your post?


QuidEst wrote:
thflame wrote:


Sam does 2d8+3 (STR) on a power attack. (3d8+6 on a critical)
Todd does 2d12 + 4 (STR x 1.5) on a power attack (2d12 + 8 on a critical)
I presume the 2d12 on the second line is a typo in your post?

Yes. That should be 3d12 +8. (I tested for 4d12 + 8 too).


How does this work out at, say, 8th level, with an assumption of +15 to hit (+8 level +2 Master +3 Str/Dex +2 weapon... would probably be higher with more feats or Str), both getting 3 dice on their weapon damage from a +2 weapon (so 3d8 vs 3d12), the base AC being 26 for reasons, the shield presumably being +4 AC and 15 hardness at this point, swordboard having that feat giving two shield block reactions per turn, and powerattacker getting that second extra die of power attack damage instead of only one?


Also, at both 1st and 8th level, how do the stats change if we're misunderstanding power attack and once activated the bonus damage persists into the second attack of the turn instead of only the first attack?

EDIT: Also just noticed the Reactive Shield thing, where a fighter can raise their shield as their reaction to get +2 AC (just not the block) if they spent all their actions on their turn attacking or such, and a higher level one could both raise as a reaction and block as a second reaction. How does THAT affect the math? XD


Sam is blocking (as a reaction) with his shield some 45% (first attack) + 20% x 55% = 56% of the rounds, ie most of the time. This prevents him from using AoOs or other reactions. In this case that almost certainly doesn't matter, but in normal adventuring it might well be significant.

Not only that, but if he does raise the shield and use PA, he can't move, not even a 5' step. That gets important. Todd chops this orc down with his 2d12+4 and moves to deal with that one. Sam just stands there waving his woodwork.


Mudfoot wrote:

Sam is blocking (as a reaction) with his shield some 45% (first attack) + 20% x 55% = 56% of the rounds, ie most of the time. This prevents him from using AoOs or other reactions. In this case that almost certainly doesn't matter, but in normal adventuring it might well be significant.

Not only that, but if he does raise the shield and use PA, he can't move, not even a 5' step. That gets important. Todd chops this orc down with his 2d12+4 and moves to deal with that one. Sam just stands there waving his woodwork.

Presumably keeping the shield up becomes more important against elite enemies and less important against trash mobs.


Its also possible that their is other things and other feats that might alter any results you will have right now.


Very cool! I love seeing all this number crunching, it really helps paint a better picture of the system. The results are not what I would have expected, PF1 being what it is. I'm glad that shield users got a bit of a buff.


sounds good


I thought shields gave a flat AC bonus always, and using them as an action gave them an additional AC bonus plus the reaction to soak damage. Was this wrong?

Additionally, I'm fairly certain the denk mechanic will be that you can soak up to your hardness, anything over causes a dent. So many dents and the shield is destroyed.


bookrat wrote:

I thought shields gave a flat AC bonus always, and using them as an action gave them an additional AC bonus plus the reaction to soak damage. Was this wrong?

Additionally, I'm fairly certain the denk mechanic will be that you can soak up to your hardness, anything over causes a dent. So many dents and the shield is destroyed.

That was just wishful thinking on some people’s part. Given how critical (pun intended) AC boosts are, shields aren’t passive- at least for the levels/situations we’ve seen.


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Interesting and it's more realistic that Sword and Board beats two-handed fighting, just go ask the HEMA folks what they think about that match up.


Fuzzypaws wrote:
How does this work out at, say, 8th level, with an assumption of +15 to hit (+8 level +2 Master +3 Str/Dex +2 weapon... would probably be higher with more feats or Str), both getting 3 dice on their weapon damage from a +2 weapon (so 3d8 vs 3d12), the base AC being 26 for reasons, the shield presumably being +4 AC and 15 hardness at this point, swordboard having that feat giving two shield block reactions per turn, and powerattacker getting that second extra die of power attack damage instead of only one?

Sorry for the late reply.

We don't know a lot about how your character improves as you level, so I am hesitant to do high level simulations, as I would have to make so many assumptions that the results I get would most likely be useless.

For one, the devs have stated that Power Attack deals more dice of damage later, but they didn't say when, or if it costs extra actions.

We also don't know if stats improve like PF1, Starfinder, or something completely new.

We don't know if stuff like Belt of Giant's Strength exists, and if it does, how it works and when you should be allowed to acquire it.

Then there is how crits interact with Magic weapon damage. Do we multiply ALL the dice, or just the base die? Does the Magic Weapon Attack bonus stack with the Craft Proficiency Bonus on weapons? What's the cap on Magic Weapon damage? When should you be able to get them.


thflame wrote:

Sorry for the late reply.

We don't know a lot about how your character improves as you level, so I am hesitant to do high level simulations, as I would have to make so many assumptions that the results I get would most likely be useless.

For one, the devs have stated that Power Attack deals more dice of damage later, but they didn't say when, or if it costs extra actions.

We also don't know if stats improve like PF1, Starfinder, or something completely new.

We don't know if stuff like Belt of Giant's Strength exists, and if it does, how it works and when you should be allowed to acquire it.

Then there is how crits interact with Magic weapon damage. Do we multiply ALL the dice, or just the base die? Does the Magic Weapon Attack bonus stack with the Craft Proficiency Bonus on weapons? What's the cap on Magic Weapon damage? When should you be able to get them.

Belt of Giant Strength does not exist, we do know that. We can be pretty sure that Power Attack scaling doesn't cost extra actions. We know that stats improve at 5th and every five levels, to multiple stats. We know that crits multiply magic weapon damage, not just the base die.

But yeah, most of the stuff we don't know.

Liberty's Edge

thflame wrote:

Re-ran the simulation.

In my first run I assumed that you maintained your AC bonus if you used your reaction to soak a hit. I decided to see what happens if you lose your shield bonus to AC when you soak a hit.

Results are that S&B beats THF 56% of the time.

If I also account for Power Attack damage being multiplied on a crit, the results are about the same.

So, a character who maintains three pieces of equipment and three proficiencies (armor, sword, and shield) has a small advantage over a character that maintains two pieces. That sounds fair in theory, but isn't a fair test unless we know what the sword and board fighter is giving up to remain current (if anything). For example, does the power attack fighter have more offensive options either because he has been neglecting shield training or because his equipment resources are more focused.

Second, a face-off may not be the best test. What about two races of sorts? Pick a damage (or take a few values, like 25, 50, 100) and see how often each configuration wins or what is the average time to the target value. Then, reverse it, based on a series of damage values, how quickly do each drop.

We do not generally spec for duels; in general, we spec for role, DPR or tank. What do you think?

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