Interesting I wish I lived in that area so I could vote next week. Oh well. 2018 is almost here.
|
Last night's special election in Kansas was promising. The Republican won, but only by seven points in safe district that went for Trump by 27.
Don't want to read to much into special elections, but it's nice to imagine a broad 20 point swing towards Democrats. :)
Note that Kansas was the second special election of this congress. The first was California district 34... which the Democrats won by 19 points more than the presidential spread... which was a whopping 68% to begin with. So right about a 20 point pro Democrat swing in both districts despite one being heavily GOP and the other extremely Democratic.
Meanwhile, they'd need about a 9 point swing in the next congressional election to retake the House.
Interesting. It might work for him but it might just backfire big time. OTOH I am not sure if he CAN do that.
Considering the DNC didnt do a damn thing to help in Kansas im not terribly optimistic.
Good point. If they would get their heads out of their... You know what I mean. Then maybe they might stand a chance.
|
Considering the DNC didnt do a damn thing to help in Kansas im not terribly optimistic.
I think the DNC should fight more battles, but KS-4 isn't particularly one of them. Republicans spent money they shouldn't need to. Dems saved theirs for the the 70+ Republican seats less conservative than Kansas.
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
Considering the DNC didnt do a damn thing to help in Kansas im not terribly optimistic.I think the DNC should fight more battles, but KS-4 isn't particularly one of them. Republicans spent money they shouldn't need to. Dems saved theirs for the the 70+ Republican seats less conservative than Kansas.
The problem is, Kansas is exactly the kind of suckhole that people are legitimately starting to feel the pain of Republican policies in. Their schools are dying, infrastructure crumbling, losing most of their services and still managing 350 million dollar budget shortfalls.
It is precisely the place where you go and say "look, you've left these people in charge for 20 years now, would you say they've led this state to prosperity? Are you better off than your parents were at your age?"
If you aren't even going to play you're never going to win.
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
Considering the DNC didnt do a damn thing to help in Kansas im not terribly optimistic.I think the DNC should fight more battles, but KS-4 isn't particularly one of them. Republicans spent money they shouldn't need to. Dems saved theirs for the the 70+ Republican seats less conservative than Kansas.The problem is, Kansas is exactly the kind of suckhole that people are legitimately starting to feel the pain of Republican policies in. Their schools are dying, infrastructure crumbling, losing most of their services and still managing 350 million dollar budget shortfalls.
It is precisely the place where you go and say "look, you've left these people in charge for 20 years now, would you say they've led this state to prosperity? Are you better off than your parents were at your age?"
If you aren't even going to play you're never going to win.
It also dovetails nicely with the common "Democrats have run [your city here] into bankruptcy" bandied about on the internet. Perfectly fair to reciprocate when demonstrably true...
Considering the DNC didnt do a damn thing to help in Kansas im not terribly optimistic.I think the DNC should fight more battles, but KS-4 isn't particularly one of them. Republicans spent money they shouldn't need to. Dems saved theirs for the the 70+ Republican seats less conservative than Kansas.
IMHO EVERYWHERE is important. At this point the Democrats are fighting an uphill battle. The Republicans have been stacking the deck in their favor and it shows.
|
|
I'm well aware of the problems in Kansas, but our wave toward moderate Republicans wasn't enough to repeal Brownback's tax cuts or expand Medicaid. Eastern Kansas would have been worth investment, but a dollar spent in Georgia is worth more than one in R+30 KS-4.
The only way to lose is to spend now what can be better spent tomorrow.
|
|
Interesting. It might work for him but it might just backfire big time. OTOH I am not sure if he CAN do that.
So... his ultimatum to the Democrats is that if they do not work with him and the GOP congress to take health care away from millions of Americans then he will personally take health care away from millions of Americans... most of them his own supporters.
I keep asking myself, how is this moron president?
Considering the DNC didnt do a damn thing to help in Kansas im not terribly optimistic.
You want the corporate interests of the DNC to take over with their corporate money?
| 2 people marked this as a favorite. |
So... his ultimatum to the Democrats is that if they do not work with him and the GOP congress to take health care away from millions of Americans then he will personally take health care away from millions of Americans... most of them his own supporters.
I keep asking myself, how is this moron president?
I ask myself that every single day. Trump must believe that his supporters will blame the Democrats either way.
I'm not sure he's wrong.
Interesting. It might work for him but it might just backfire big time. OTOH I am not sure if he CAN do that.
I still don't see how the GOP can pull off Healthcare, at least until the next round of congressional elections. Democrats still have no interest in working with him, and I don't get a sense he has actually cowed the Freedom Caucus sufficiently to be able to ignore there influence.
| 4 people marked this as a favorite. |
Republicans will blame democrats. Democrats will blame Hillary for some reason.
Climb down off the cross
Trump's base turning against him
I know that there is about zero chance of turning a good chunk of Trump's base towards any mainstream candidate I would in any way support, but that doesn't they still can't lose faith with Trump in general.
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
Republicans will blame democrats. Democrats will blame Hillary for some reason.Climb down off the cross
Well that seemed more than a little uncalled for...
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
Well that seemed more than a little uncalled for...Republicans will blame democrats. Democrats will blame Hillary for some reason.Climb down off the cross
Only if taken in a vacuum and disregarding the fact that its the umpteenth time they've hammered that point.
| 2 people marked this as a favorite. |
Only if taken in a vacuum and disregarding the fact that its the umpteenth time they've hammered that point.Well that seemed more than a little uncalled for...Republicans will blame democrats. Democrats will blame Hillary for some reason.Climb down off the cross
I can relate. I've gotten tired of hearing alot of fringe left talking points being reiterated ad nauseam.
Oh right thats why help was no where to be found.Considering the DNC didnt do a damn thing to help in Kansas im not terribly optimistic.You want the corporate interests of the DNC to take over with their corporate money?
Probably because the DNC does not contribute to congressional races and never has, it's not their job. There is an entirely separate entity, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee or DCCC for short, that does that. And wouldn't you know, they contributed money to the race.
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
Did they?
All I can find mention of is last minute (the night before) phonebanking from the DCCC and a late contribution from the state Democratic Party.
This led to a sudden infusion of cash from the National Republican Congressional Committee to Thompson’s opponent Ron Estes, who in the end raised $459,000, $130,000 of it from the NRCC. He also received massive donations from representatives of big business and help from such national figures as Paul Ryan, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, and the president himself, who tweeted about the race.
...
While Thompson managed to raise $292,000 without his party’s help, 95% of which came from individuals, neither the DNC, DCCC, nor even the Kansas Democratic Party would help him grow that total in any substantial way. His campaign requested $20,000 from the state Democratic Party and was denied.They later relented and gave him $3,000. (According to the FEC, the Party had about $145,000 on hand.) The national Democratic Party gave him nothing until the day before the election, when it graced him with some live calls and robo-calls. He lost by seven percentage points.
From The Democratic party is undermining Bernie Sanders-style candidates by Jamie Peck
EDIT:
... Contrast this with what Perez said just a few months earlier when he promised “a 50-state strategy” complete with “rural outreach and organizers in every zip code.” In a post-victory interview with NPR, he specifically name checked Kansas as a place Democrats could win. ...
[facepalm]
Oh right thats why help was no where to be found.Considering the DNC didnt do a damn thing to help in Kansas im not terribly optimistic.You want the corporate interests of the DNC to take over with their corporate money?
Actually, I'm pointing out some irony.
People have complained that the democratic party and it's leadership is corporate, elitist and unresponsive to what the people actually want, but here you're complaining that they aren't coming in and meddling with the campaign with their money.
Besides, money doesn't move polls nearly as much as people think. Consider that Clinton outspent Trump nearly 2 to 1. Interestingly, Clinton spent roughly 1/4 of what Obama spent, and only slightly behind him in % of population numbers. Trump spent roughly 1/6 of what Romney spent and got roughly the same number of votes.
In addition, Jon Ossoff was able to raise several million dollars without any help from the DNC or DCCC in Georgia's 6th district.
Any money spent on Kansas' 4th district (which Dems lost by 30 points just a couple months ago) is money that isn't available for other more competitive districts.
You don't need the DNC or the DCCC to organize and win elections. Recently strong efforts in Illinois led to grassroots victories in places where Dem's hadn't won a seat in over 100 years.
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
This led to a sudden infusion of cash from the National Republican Congressional Committee to Thompson’s opponent Ron Estes, who in the end raised $459,000, $130,000 of it from the NRCC. He also received massive donations from representatives of big business and help from such national figures as Paul Ryan, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, and the president himself, who tweeted about the race.
...
While Thompson managed to raise $292,000 without his party’s help, 95% of which came from individuals, neither the DNC, DCCC, nor even the Kansas Democratic Party would help him grow that total in any substantial way. His campaign requested $20,000 from the state Democratic Party and was denied.They later relented and gave him $3,000. (According to the FEC, the Party had about $145,000 on hand.) The national Democratic Party gave him nothing until the day before the election, when it graced him with some live calls and robo-calls. He lost by seven percentage points.
From The Democratic party is undermining Bernie Sanders-style candidates by Jamie Peck
EDIT:
... Contrast this with what Perez said just a few months earlier when he promised “a 50-state strategy” complete with “rural outreach and organizers in every zip code.” In a post-victory interview with NPR, he specifically name checked Kansas as a place Democrats could win. ...[facepalm]
Yes, I am sure the only reason the democrats didn't win one of the reddest states in the Union was because the democrats didn't want someone from the progressive wing to win...
Yes, I am sure the only reason the democrats didn't win one of the reddest states in the Union was because the democrats didn't want someone from the progressive wing to win...This led to a sudden infusion of cash from the National Republican Congressional Committee to Thompson’s opponent Ron Estes, who in the end raised $459,000, $130,000 of it from the NRCC. He also received massive donations from representatives of big business and help from such national figures as Paul Ryan, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, and the president himself, who tweeted about the race.
...
While Thompson managed to raise $292,000 without his party’s help, 95% of which came from individuals, neither the DNC, DCCC, nor even the Kansas Democratic Party would help him grow that total in any substantial way. His campaign requested $20,000 from the state Democratic Party and was denied.They later relented and gave him $3,000. (According to the FEC, the Party had about $145,000 on hand.) The national Democratic Party gave him nothing until the day before the election, when it graced him with some live calls and robo-calls. He lost by seven percentage points.
From The Democratic party is undermining Bernie Sanders-style candidates by Jamie Peck
EDIT:
... Contrast this with what Perez said just a few months earlier when he promised “a 50-state strategy” complete with “rural outreach and organizers in every zip code.” In a post-victory interview with NPR, he specifically name checked Kansas as a place Democrats could win. ...[facepalm]
7 point difference in one of the reddest states in the union, with no significant help from the democratic party.
If you don't show up to play, you aren't going to win.
This led to a sudden infusion of cash from the National Republican Congressional Committee to Thompson’s opponent Ron Estes, who in the end raised $459,000, $130,000 of it from the NRCC. He also received massive donations from representatives of big business and help from such national figures as Paul Ryan, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, and the president himself, who tweeted about the race.
...
While Thompson managed to raise $292,000 without his party’s help, 95% of which came from individuals, neither the DNC, DCCC, nor even the Kansas Democratic Party would help him grow that total in any substantial way. His campaign requested $20,000 from the state Democratic Party and was denied.They later relented and gave him $3,000. (According to the FEC, the Party had about $145,000 on hand.) The national Democratic Party gave him nothing until the day before the election, when it graced him with some live calls and robo-calls. He lost by seven percentage points.
From The Democratic party is undermining Bernie Sanders-style candidates by Jamie Peck
EDIT:
... Contrast this with what Perez said just a few months earlier when he promised “a 50-state strategy” complete with “rural outreach and organizers in every zip code.” In a post-victory interview with NPR, he specifically name checked Kansas as a place Democrats could win. ...[facepalm]
Jamie Peck completely misstates and misrepresents Jon Ossoff's donations.
To date, the DNC has raised some $8.3m for him
Is a lie. He's gotten less than $400 from political parties. You can check his FEC filing if you like (clearly this "journalist" didn't), it's public record.
Also, Ossoff is probably going to lose. Right now he's polling at 39% in the district. He needs to get over 50% on Tuesday to avoid a runoff. Currently there are 11 Republicans in the field. Once the candidate list is paired down to just him versus one of them, it's quite likely he'll lose.
His nearest competitor (money-wise) has something like $400,000 total raised.
That should tell you something, that someone who raised less than $500,000 in campaign funds has a better chance of winning than the guy who raised $8,300,000.
and indeed Ossoff was unable to top 50%, but got pretty close. I don't actually see him beating the Republican challenger, although I think if the GOP gets into any debacles like the recent Healthcare situation between now and then, his odds will improve.
I think the fact that democrats both here and in Kansas, in deeply red areas, were able to mount any significant challenge is probably the take home point. That's probably a bad omen for the GOP for areas less firmly locked down for them.
Yup, the democratic candidate from November lost with 38%. The two previous candidates got 33% and 35%.
There are a lot of districts that were more competitive than the Georgia 6th last November. Even just a 5-point bump across the board has a good chance of taking the House out of republican hands.
|
|
and indeed Ossoff was unable to top 50%, but got pretty close. I don't actually see him beating the Republican challenger, although I think if the GOP gets into any debacles like the recent Healthcare situation between now and then, his odds will improve.
I dunno, I think he still has a pretty good shot.
He got 48.1% of the vote. Handel got 19.8%.
So, assuming that most of those people will vote the same way again... Ossoff needs to pick up ~2% more vs Handel needing ~30.3% more.
Granted, most of those are people who voted for some OTHER GOP candidate, but are nearly all of them really going to switch over to Handel now? If even a few percent who voted for some other GOP candidate won't support Handel then Ossoff can win without picking up ANY additional support... let alone if some independents who voted for a 'moderate Republican' now switch to Ossoff.
It will likely be close, but having 48.1% of the vote is a nice place to be starting from.
|
|
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
Bernie Perez team up not looking so great. Folks are trying to tell Perez and the DNC what they want. The answer is to change the song and turn it up....
| 2 people marked this as a favorite. |
Hee hee!
More about the past rather than the future, but I also enjoyed Matt Taibbi's review of Shattered.
| 2 people marked this as a favorite. |
Skipped all the Marches for Science yesterday and instead dropped acid and watched Train to Busan.
Going to a DSA "Theory Work Group" today and I found the assigned readings pretty good, actually.
In addition to The Communist Manifesto, a triptych of articles from Jacobin:
And, an extra reading that, actually, I enjoyed more than the other two:
*Pauses, while tossing popcorn into mouth*
Well, I think it's easier to ditch somebody if they've already lost. I'm not sure how much this sort of poll actually means.
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
]Enough already.
If the Democratic party has trouble in 2018 or 2020 it's going to be because we're still whining about the 2016 primary fights.
Or it will be because the Party didn't learn a damn thing, and is making the same mistakes. Since I see virtually no acknowledgment that there was/is a problem, I don't see anything getting fixed. Pretending everything is fine doesn't make it so.
Hillary Clinton/Debbie Wasserman Schultz 2020?
EDIT: Also, accusations of "whining"? Really? I don't think Hillary supporters are in any position to point fingers about whining.