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I think you're on the right track by awarding XP more for achieving mission goals than defeating monsters. While ninjas aren't bad in combat, they're not the absolute best either. But they're quite good at getting missions done.
With regard to combat, I'd like to suggest two tactics;
1) Alchemical items and UMD/potions can replace some of the other classes. Tanglefoot bags and smokesticks can be used for some minor battlefield control. Since ninjas are pretty fast, minor control may be enough to let you get away or get past.
2) Kiting. Rogues/ninjas are decent at doing some damage, then getting away before the enemy rallies. Thus they could wear down an enemy force over time with minimal damage to the ninja himself. However, this requires patience; a combat might take ten times as many rounds. Other classes, particularly those with limited rounds of "oomph" like a barbarian running out of Rage rounds, tend not to have that patience. They do better in a short and furious fight. But you don't have that issue now; no impatient other players. The ninja can do the patient fight, if needed.
Short Note:
Step 1 — Figure out your player's Challenge Rating (CR for players, assuming your player's Wealth By Level is appropriate, is equal to the player's Level).
Step 2 — Divide the player's CR by 4.
Step 3 — Use the result as your ninja's Average Party Level when constructing encounters. For example, a CR 1 Ninja (1st Level Ninja) has an APL of 1/4.
Long Note:
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On the left hand side of this screen you'll see the logos for Pathfinder Roleplaying Game, below that Pathfinder Society, Pathfinder Beginner Box. etc. etc.
Keep scrolling down. (possibly immediately to the left of this post/my avatar)
You'll see a heading called Adventures with a sub-heading called "Adventure Finder".
Click on that - it takes you to a page that has some 1 on 1 and Solo modules.
I have not read them or played them but I just found them yesterday when I noticed the left hand column of links for the very first time.
I've never wanted to play a solo game, but ninja sounds like it could be a lot of fun.
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Short Note:
Step 1 — Figure out your player's Challenge Rating (CR for players, assuming your player's Wealth By Level is appropriate, is equal to the player's Level).
Step 2 — Divide the player's CR by 4.
Step 3 — Use the result as your ninja's Average Party Level when constructing encounters. For example, a CR 1 Ninja (1st Level Ninja) has an APL of 1/4.
Long Note:
Thank you for posting that link. I've read your guide to challenging encounters and your blog looks great so far.
And I agree with Ciaran: Ninja does sound great for a Solo adventure.
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Normally, if one player has a run of bad luck, or gets ganged up on by multiple enemies, the other PCs can come to the rescue.
Since this is a solo game, she should have a different safety net. You should take a look at the Hero Points in the APG. Giving her 1-2 points per game session should make it more doable to survive dangerous swings of bad luck.
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My strategy for finding the right difficulty is to start out with easy challenges, and gradually make them harder until I figure out the sweet spot.
In this case, start with enemies that don't do a lot of damage, because healing isn't all that easily available for a solo PC. Avoid orcs.
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It can be good to have an NPC mentor who stays in town (because he's old/retired/busy) that she can discuss missions with before and after. Because she doesn't have other players to bounce ideas off.
The old man who trained his ninja girl would be a good cliche here :P
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In-town intrigue can be fun, especially if the town is moderately peaceful. If people can be your enemy, and you both know it, but actual bloodshed in the streets isn't an option. So you make threats, spy on each other, maybe try to plant some incriminating evidence and so on, instead of just seeing who's got more HP.
Obviously ninjas are a good class for this.
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Yeah, I do think ninjas are among the best class choices for solo games.
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Combats: ideally the ninja is going around enemies rather than through them. When going through them is necessary, the idea combat consists of the ninja sneak-attacking with a bunch of shuriken, killing all enemies in the first round of combat.
As a GM, that's something you should be mentally prepared for: you're not going to have long heroic combats. That's something paladins do.
Ninjas have no business engaging in a fair fight.
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Some general, non-ninja specific one-player advice from a GM running a solo campaign. The obvious stuff is to reduce the number of monsters, however there's a few perhaps less obvious thoughts below.
- Remember, the PC is now responsible for -everything-. There's no-one to pick up the slack. If they don't have Knowledge: Religion, then nobody in the party can. If they don't have a good ranged option, there's no back-up ranger with a bow. If they don't have the Strength to have sufficient encumbrance to carry a lantern and a bedroll, then they can't sleep outdoors. There's no-body to help.
A high point buy can help with this, particularly if the player is happy to spread their points instead of min-maxing. A STR of 14, DEX of 14, and INT of 14 makes for a character who can fight OK in melee and at range, and has enough skill points to cover some bases, regardless of their class choice.
- Certain monster abilities go from being a minor inconvenience to a major pain. Fail a Fort save vs blindness? Your cleric can't just cure it tomorrow, and there's no party around to help you stumble around. The blind solo player dies alone at the bottom of the dungeon, unable to see their way out. A stun effect means nobody can damage the enemy this round at all. Being petrified is the same as being dead, because there's nobody to haul the statue back to civilization for recovery.
Consequently, a monster who counters the PC's abilities becomes lethal instead of merely troublesome. Can't be sneak-attacked? The rogue can't damage it - and thus nobody can.
I'm not saying don't use these abilities, but use them sparingly, and be advised they can massively change the CR.
- Make out-of-class solutions readily available. The ninja can't cast Divination or Lesser Restoration, but perhaps they can buy or find some potions in treasure, or find a friendly NPC in town to aid. If you're running up against a known vampire, make the information about their strengths and weaknesses accessible via a library or an NPC.
- Expect more rounds. You may not usually bother worrying about the duration on the 1 min/level potion the PC just drank, because in 10 rounds the combat would normally be well over anyway. In solo games, it's quite possible for a combat to go 10 or 20 rounds. It'll play just as quick, if not quicker, at the table, but effects you might not bother tracking become more relevant.