An analysis of the map – courtesy of Thod’s Friends

[Theodum]

Theodum looked at the map he had generated from the landrush. Hit had carefully drawn many lines on it to get more accurate information about all the different proposed settlement sites. He did start with the overall map. He counted a total of 870 sections on the map.

870 for 33 guilds to form a new settlement – that was a lot for everyone. And they were spaced apart of each other –shouldn’t this lead to peaceful interactions of everyone involved? Oh yes – maybe in a perfect world – but we were talking real humans (and some non-human races) racing to the Rift – bringing all their problems with them – so maybe it deserved a closer look.

So he started counting
870 hexes total
33 of these settlements
54 claimed by Thornkeep and Fort Invitable
40 small settlements belonging to nobody
66 hexes close to the roads – which by decree was an area that the new settlers were not allowed to settle in
40 more hexes where Theodum had information about strong monster populations – making them inhospitable – 41 if he added the Emerald Spire to this
46 badland hexes – areas not truly suited for settlement
12 hexes dominated by Lamasthu – identifiable as spawning zones of monsters
Then a further 18 hexes between dagger road and Forest Road and the area west of the valley road that amounted to unlikely settlement controls and your numbers dwindeled.

For a moment he had included the area southwest of Fort Inevitable into this as well – but just in time he spotted a single settlement point in this area.

So that left below 2/3 of the map truly free for settlement – and that was assuming everyone lived in peace. Well – shouldn’t that be enough – that left 540 hexes for 33 settlement – just about 16 for each settlement.

Theodum had calculated that a settlement would need a minimum of 8 additional hexes to sustain itself without any problems and 16 if it truly wanted to grow. It seemed overall this would just work.
But there were several problems.

History showed that people were greedy – they didn’t like to share. And the landscape and distribution of settlements wasn’t perfectly even. Settlers tended to assume that everything closer to our townhall then to anyone else’s townhall would belong to you.

It was a very simple concept. Theodum himself preferred a slightly more precise way to measure influence. You couldn’t really fly down or up a cliff. So instead he preferred to measure natural influence as to who would be able to walk there faster.

There was no right nor wrong. And likely there would be wars fought about just this issue. But to quantify the problem he had to count in one way or another.

So what would such accounting lead to?

Theodum started with the settlements closest to Thornkeep. The two settlements North of Thornkeep seemed to have ample space. He did count 17 1/2 and 26 hexes for the western and the eastern settlement respectively.

Oh yes – half hexes – like the pass up into the mountain range. Lands the same distance to more than one settlement. Typical areas of dispute that would start hostilities.

But the real trouble started when he looked at the mountain region bordering Thornkeep to the Southeast. The closest settlement spot had grand views across the woods and bandits below – but he only counted a total of 6 1/2 hexes that naturally would seem to belong to this settlement.

Maybe they could ask their neighbours for some of their lands. But who would want to give lands away? Take it by force and the first war would start as soon as the first settlers arrived.

Dark times ahead. Theodum would have to negotiate carefully with all neighbours to avoid war breaking out.

Thanks to Harvad Navar for his great Inofficial Landrush Map. This was a great help. Also thanks to Gobbocast for their great interview were Lee mentions the approx. number of hexes you need to control for a given reputation.

Oh - and feel free to check us out Join Thod's Friends

[Thod]

My take:
I think the developers got it pretty right. There should be just enough space if everyone plays nice – but this is a PvP game and that won’t happen.

The position of settlements will cause border skirmishes or even war and razing of settlements sooner or later. And any war will cost resources and reduce efficiency of harvesting.

I can see a lot of different options how to address this issue as a settlement. They are not necessarily exclusive:

Play nice with your neighbour: This will work best for groups having enough space to expand.

Hope on of your neighbours will cease naturally – this always will happen

Have a very weak neighbour who doesn’t need all his lands – especially the half hexes equidistant or hexes that you need to walk a longer way as the crow flies and therefore would fall into different ownership depending on measurement method employed

Optimize your harvesting. I’m sure the same area does not necessarily create the same amount of resources depending how it gets harvested, how much pillage happens, etc.

Harvest from monster hexes – will be interesting to find out how well this works

Plunder and rob from other settlements resources that you don’t produce yourself

Take over a close neighbour – having the space of 2 settlements should always be enough

It was surprising to me that several of the large guilds preferred defensible positions (next to cliffs) instead of larger areas to expand in to. Add to this that war and raids will lower the amount of resources produced – and that there will always remain unclaimed areas - and I can see fault lines appear.

We will have interesting times ahead.

[Armenfrast]

Quote:

Theodum had calculated that a settlement would need a minimum of 8 additional hexes to sustain itself without any problems

I am puzzled ...where does this information comes from ? how do you calculate it ?

[Shane Gifford of Fidelis]

Armenfrast wrote:

Quote:

Theodum had calculated that a settlement would need a minimum of 8 additional hexes to sustain itself without any problems

I am puzzled ...where does this information comes from ? how do you calculate it ?

That's just him talking in-character; the 8-hex figure was an estimate given by the devs, though I'm not sure where at.

[Nihimon]

Armenfrast wrote:

Quote:

Theodum had calculated that a settlement would need a minimum of 8 additional hexes to sustain itself without any problems

I am puzzled ...where does this information comes from ? how do you calculate it ?

The latest Gobbocast interview with Lee Hammock discussed it.

Lee Hammock wrote:

The average Settlement we expect people are going to be shooting for is like 500 in each of the Development Indexes. They go up to 1,000, but we figure most people are going to be in the 500 range, and to support that kind of Settlement you're going to need approximately 8 hexes worth of resources to support yourself.

[Darcnes]

Having 16 hexes tied to a settlement yields maximum development potential for that settlement and its respective PoIs.

Theodum forgot that very quickly those unclaimed settlements will be claimable and available land will further dwindle as demand increases.

[Nihimon]

Yeah, I have to say that knowledge made me even happier with the position T7V won for Phaeros in the first Land Rush. We have 15 hexes that are essentially uncontested. Two of those are within Keepers of the Circle's "natural 6" but have no direct path. I wonder how much impact that will actually have.

[TEO Cheatle]

What I find interesting is that there are enough Hexs for all 73 settlemetns to have 8 Hexes each, and over 17 each for the starting 33 settlements.

I think Goblinworks have really planned this whole thing out well.

[Theodum]

Shane Gifford of Fidelis wrote:

Armenfrast wrote:

Quote:

Theodum had calculated that a settlement would need a minimum of 8 additional hexes to sustain itself without any problems

I am puzzled ...where does this information comes from ? how do you calculate it ?

That's just him talking in-character; the 8-hex figure was an estimate given by the devs, though I'm not sure where at.

I feel insulted - the majority here truly trusts more in the words of a goblin as in the educated treatise of a well respected scholar like me. Surely the sneaky goblin must have looked at my notes and not the other way round.

I have a reputation to uphold here.

That is why I linked to the gobbocast

[Hark]

I assure a Goblin did not look at your notes. Goblins know the truth. Reading the written word steals the thoughts from your mind. Only the most depraved of goblins would even consider looking at your notes, and a truly virtuous Goblin would have burned your notes along with every scrap of paper they could find. Because fire is the best.

[Harad Navar]

Also, consider the first day of OE when the full map is open. Mad rush to get out of the EE conclave into the unclaimed wilds.

Warning: the full map has not been updated with the most recent EE map.

[Thod]

About lands after the OE and further settlements ...

@Darcnes
If additional settlements can be claimed only later, then existing ones will already feel they 'own' these lands even if they haven't managed to control all POI - and indeed - that would cause additional strains.

Just assume some small group decides to settle in one of the two spots on the mountain between Brighthaven and Keepers Pass. This would get crowded pretty quickly.

And yes - this also could change Dagedai a lot. right now they might have the largest land-mass of them all (on paper). But there are 4 possible settlement slots nearby that seem ideal for someone new who likes to expand outwards once the map opens.

Theodum's work is purely theoretical. There are too many factors that decide on individual hexes. But it gives a baseline about

a) what is available
b) what people likely feel belongs to them

There are too many additional variables that come into play once we have started. But that is the interesting bit about the game - the PvP generated content.

[Harad Navar]

There are only so many settlement capable hexes. Those hexes that are not so designated on the various maps cannot have settlements. At most they can have PoI's, but these may have limited training capacity.

[Caldeathe Baequiannia]

Harad Navar wrote:

There are only so many settlement capable hexes. Those hexes that are not so designated on the various maps cannot have settlements. At most they can have PoI's, but these may have limited training capacity.

Well, yes. but on the initial map, that's already 73 hexes. 33 of which will have a starter settlement, and 40 more of which will be available to others when cleared.