Ive got a two-handed melee character (STR 20, current BAB +7) in a campaign where the magic weapons have been a wee bit on the stingy side. For a while Ive been using a +1 keen longsword two-handed since it was the best one we'd found to date, but last session we found a +2 bastard sword and the party asked if I wanted it.
I aged myself by quoting Chevy Chase: "It was my understanding that there would be no math"........................
ANYWAY: Ive got Power Attack and Furious Focus which I use just about every single round, meaning my old damage was
If I switch to the + bastard it looks like
In-character I want the heavier weapon, that's why I built a two-handed fighter in the first place, but out-of-character that extra 10% chance sounds pretty good and I don't want to lose the extra damage potential. At the moment these are the only 2 weapons to choose from so "switch to a +1 keen falchion" wont help just yet.....but Im hoping those that are better at math than I am can offer advice?
Thanks in advance for the assist!
Actually the difference in damage is not that great since you have to account for the monster's AC and the confirmation roll on crits etc...
I would take the long sword in unless you have the exotic feat for the bastard sword simply because you can use a one handed weapon while grappled. I think being able to use a weapon as one or two handed trump 1 or 2 points of extra damage.
No, I am not saying taking EWP just to use the bastard sword one-handed. If you are going to go that route just try to get a falcata. :)
Math:
The bastard sword two handed when facing a foe with an AC of 20 and using furious focus gets you 41.36 on a full round attack
The longsword in the same situation gets you 39.99. The reason is the extra crit range is more important than the weapon's base damage so that means my guess of 1
Since I have a little free time a +1 keen falcata gives you 46.66
A +2 falcata would give you 43.20
Would the longsword be of any use to anyone else in your party? Do you find yourself missing when you think you should be hitting? That extra 1 to hit could mean the difference between 20 damage and no damage.
If you do the math, assuming perfect probability and including crit chance, you should (My math might not be perfect) get a damage average of 22.55 with the Bastard sword, and 22.2 average damage with the longsword. So it's about the same average wise. Do your dice roll 17 and up a lot?
Unless someone else in your party can use it, I would say the longsword, because as wraithstrike said, you can use it in one hand if you need to.
Do you get enlarged frequently? That disproportionately benefits the Bastard Sword, and disproportionately disfavors Crits because it's favoring damage more than to-hit (needed to Confirm).
The stats you are using aren't really the whole picture, for one because your percentages for "Crits" is actually for THREATENING a Crit.
You can get a better numeric comparison by using the DPR Olympics Google Docs spreadsheet (search the forum for that term),
which actually compares to-hit vs. CR standard ACs and allows for comparing multiple options like Power Attack, etc.
I would guess that given a lesser amount of magic, you would immediately do better with the Bastard Sword,
but that possibly in a few levels the balance would swing back to a Keen Longsword.
The thing is also that you can and will face enemies with ACs above CR standard (as well as below), where Crits will not confirm as much,
and doing more damage all (or most of) the time may mean that the enemy is dropped in one less attack.
There is also Crit-immune enemies like Elementals, and Fortification Armor or conditional AC bonuses vs. Crit Confirms.
The Keen Longsword not only doesn't quite keep up (per wraithstrike's numbers), it only stays close via bursty, conditional damage.
It sounds like you can keep both, I would do that and use Bastard Sword for now (2h),
wearing the Keen Longsword sheathed to pull out if you can't use 2 hands, i.e. Grappled.
The Keen Longsword may eventually become the better general choice once you have more attack/dmg boosts,
although it would likewise be smart to keep the other sword to deal with obviously Crit-immune targets.
Some things about your game are a bit outside the standard game assumptions, and keeping multiple weapon like that
may seem inefficient in terms of rigorous Wealth By Level limits, but I'd guess the GM isn't using those as much,
especially if you're simply not using one of the weapons most of the time.
Thanks so much all - I knew the math was going to be close, good to know my instincts were right and its not an easy answer.
For the moment it looks like I can keep both so that's good news for me (the rest of the party actively didn't want either) so I can be selective as the situation needs.
But I'll probably track down that calculator also and see what it tells me once I enter everything. Thanks again!
Also realize that vanilla Enhancement bonus is useful in overcoming special kinds of DR (cold iron and silver @+3, adamantine @+4).
The +2 sword is one closer to overcoming those compared to the Keen Longsword.
If you end up being able to add a +1 enhancement to either weapon in the future, getting a +3 Bastard Sword may be best.
But it depends on your game dynamics of how the GM 'hands out' magic weapons and wealth and magical crafting opportunities.
If you would sooner or later get a Silver/Mithril, Cold Iron, or Adamantine Weapon then it may not matter.
One thing when using DPR Calculator: I can't remember if it breaks it out separately, but you may be interested to compare single attack vs. full attack DPR. Too many people in that thread only seem to care about full attack DPR because that is bigger numbers on paper. Your questions is how often do you full attack vs. single attack? Single attacks at full BAB are most likely to confirm Crits, but they are much swingyier to happen compared to multiple attacks/chances to threaten. Especially for melee (not ranged, who can full attack more often), a realistic assessment of single vs. full attack is very recommended. Also realize that there may be other "swingy" factors like Miss Chance which may negate your one Crit that you would rely on to be competitive vs a Big Damage non-Keen weapon.
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I've done a little math sample for the damage against a target with AC of 20. (Math typos and mistakes are very easy to make in these cases, but I've done my best to double-check)
+1 Keen Longsword
Attack bonus: +13/+6
Damage: 1d8+14/x2 (avg 18.5, avg crit 37)
Crit threat range: 17-20
First attack - chance of normal hit (50%), chance of confirm crit (14%), chance of hit via unconfirmed crit (6%), chance of miss (30%)
Average damage: (0.56*18.5)+(0.14*37)=15.54
Second attack- chance of normal hit (15%), chance of confirm crit (7%), chance of hit via unconfirmed crit (13%), chance of miss (65%)
Average damage: (0.32*18.5)+(0.03*37)=7.77
Longsword average damage for full attack: 23.31
- - - - -
+2 Bastard Sword
Attack bonus: +14/+7
Damage: 1d10+15/x2 (avg 20.5, avg crit 41)
Crit threat range: 19-20
First attack - chance of normal hit (65%), chance of confirm crit (7.5%), chance of hit via unconfirmed crit (2.5%), chance of miss (25%)
Average damage: (0.675*20.5)+(0.075*41)=16.9125
Second attack- chance of normal hit (30%), chance of confirm crit (4%), chance of hit via unconfirmed crit (6%), chance of miss (60%)
Average damage: (0.36*20.5)+(0.04*41)=9.02
Bastard Sword average damage for full attack: 25.9325
Now, this is a specific case of an enemy with 20 AC. Other examples will have slightly different results, and of course this is simply average damage. An average is only one way of looking at numbers like this.
As an other example, consider when an enemy is super-hard to hit. That extra crit range on the Keen weapon will be less useful when a 17 won't hit an enemy (and thus won't threaten, if I understand the rules correctly). The feat Critical Focus would also change things considerably.
Then again, the crit range gets better as you get more and more damage from things like power attack, Lead Blades, Enlarge Person or whatever. As others have said, keep both weapons. Torag forbid someone sunders one!
I don't claim to be the expert on punching numbers into a keyboard, so if someone with a Keen eye and Critical Focus (puns! woohoo!) could double check my numbers I think that may help assure that the OP is getting accurate info. We're all here to help each other, after all. Good luck OP!
I don't think which option has marginally higher numbers in theoretical DPR calculations matters more than other game factors such as swinginess/reliability, crit immunity, 1h only scenarios, and DR.
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If you want to go insane with permutations and possibilities, I've put a Damage Calculator in the PFS GM Shared Prep folder:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bwm5JbgYk73FMHUzU3pxanhzbFU
It currently pulls AC and HP from the "Average Monster Stats" in the PRD (based on APL+1), and it covers two-handed, one-handed, TWF, flurry, and up to 3 iterative attacks. You can adjust for concealment, cover (for reach and ranged), mirror images...and some other stuff. (No DR yet, though. Sorry.)
The link is to a ZIP file with two files in it. The Excel file is the calculator, and the Word document has all the instructions and formulas, and it even explains the math behind the formulas I used (if you care).
Bastard sword. Fractionally more damage, +1 to hit. Unless, of course, you're considering using a shield on occasion and don't have EWP.
Thing is, if you still own the longsword, you can pull it out while Grappled and still attack with it.
Using a shield "on occasion" isn't a reason to use longsword all the time, it is a reason to keep the longsword and use it when you want to don a shield.
Or you could flog it and spend the 8000/2 gp on something more useful like a Strength belt, assuming this campaign allows shopping.
Besides, it would need to be a Light weapon to be used when grappled. So just carry a dagger.
1H weapons work just fine while Grappled. Light weapon restriction applies to Swallow Whole.
Assuming you're using both hands on the weapon, with Power Attack at BAB 7 (against AC 21, from the Monster Stat index) the difference in the long run is
Long sword: +11/+6, damage per round 19.380
Bastard sword: +12/+7, damage per round 21.945
The bastard sword does about 2.5 more points per round in EV of average damage. If you get enlarged or get your hands of Lead Blades, though, the bastard sword is about 3 points ahead.
So mostly it's about whether you ever want to use one hand or what you think fits your character better.
Thanks Gwen for posting your very awesome spreadsheet. I have long considered making something similar, as I tend to make a new spreadsheet every time I want to calculate the difference between 2 or more options.
I may have detected a very small bug in the calculation, but I'm not sure if I'm getting the rules right. Let me walk through my thought process and someone may point out any mistake I may be making. I think that a character with 20 STR has a STR bonus of 5, and thus has a bonus to 2-handed damage rolls of 7.5, rounded down is 7.
The issue is the rounding. In the spreadsheet column "Str + PA adjust", which calculates additional damage for 2-handed attacks, I can get unrounded numbers, which (as far as I know, feel free to correct me) should not be the case. If this rounding is applied, then the spreadsheet's numbers match my own pencil-and-paper calculations.
In addition, let's not forget that the OP's character has the feat Furious Focus, negating the -2 penalty to attack on his/her primary attack. I found that in the spreadsheet, the best way to handle this was to add 2 to the "additional attack bonus" column for the primary attack in the sequence.
Using the spreadsheet, I confirmed my numbers in my post above for attacking an enemy with AC of 20. The general conclusion stands: Bastard Sword does slightly more average damage.