Assassins Strike across Golarion

[ShadowcatX]

Let us assume for a minute that some secret group decided it wanted to hire (money is no issue) a number of assassins (not the class, just a job title, can be mages, dopplegangers, ninjas, etc.) and use them across the whole of Golarion and targets kings, queens, high priests, archmages, nobles, generals, mayors, etc. Let us say 1,000 people across the whole world are to be targeted. Let us further say that the only restriction on these assassinations is that they must all happen on a certain night. This night can be far enough in the future that the assassins have time to plan and get into position, but remember the further into the future the strike is arranged, the longer people have to find out about it.

My question is, what percent of these assassins do you think would be successful?

(This was a hook in the old warlord ccg / rpg, and I always loved it and thought it was imaginative, but that it was kind of unrealistic that so many assassinations would succeed in a fantasy world. Just wanting to see what others thing.)

P.S.

I wasn't sure where to post this, so I just guessed advice. If this is the wrong forum I apologize.

[VRMH]

Not many. I'd say 25% at most, and would call anything over 15% a success.
Much depends on how common assassinations (and therefore assassination countermeasures) are in the setting. But being limited to one specific night does not make a murderer's job easy.

[Bobo Rolliolis]

The mass assassinations could be bolstered in their success rate though since odds are there are only so many guards available to protect people, or so many covert hidey holes to disappear into. Of course the number of assassins and their style will have varying impacts on the outcome, for example if a bulk of them are "knife in the dark" types, it'll be harder than a blockbuster mage leveling the neighbourhood the nobles live in, or the royal chef poisoning the feast because he's been an assassin all along. So without firm details, it's kind of a crap-shoot.

I assume someone taking on such an endeavour would follow standard security protocols like compartmentalizing information, using unaffiliated cells, etc... so that even a leak in one job wouldn't compromise the others. If I hired 10,000 assassins to kill 1000 people, some may have false information so that when they get busted, authorities are chasing red herrings. Cops may pat themselves on the back because they found out about this murder plot against the Bank manager, when the real target was the Accountant all along. Since they stopped the conspiracy, they let their guard down figuring the job is done, then BAM, the bodies start piling up.

But it all depends on how much people are expecting an assassination, after all, the beloved king who's on good terms with his neighbours is less likely to worry than the tyrant barbarian warlord.

Overall, I'd put their success rate higher, at around 65% assuming it was well planned, used tactical professionals, wasn't expected on a large scale, and the assassins fully exploited their targets weaknesses.

[VRMH]

another issue to consider is: does the hit(wo)man expect to get out alive? Suicide murderers have a significantly higher success rate than professional assassins.

[Stabbald]

VRMH wrote:

another issue to consider is: does the hit(wo)man expect to get out alive? Suicide murderers have a significantly higher success rate than professional assassins.

Disagreed.

Professional Assassins will be significantly more successful than level 1 warriors with knives.

[Halinn]

Stabbald wrote:

VRMH wrote:

another issue to consider is: does the hit(wo)man expect to get out alive? Suicide murderers have a significantly higher success rate than professional assassins.

Disagreed.

Professional Assassins will be significantly more successful than level 1 warriors with knives.

Just supply the level 1 warriors with a lot of alchemist fire (and similar stuff). Suicide charge against the target, get a good chain reaction of splash damage going

[cnetarian]

Without powerful spells trying to coordinate 1000 assassinations on the same night with hired assassins is going to result in many assassins being trapped and a very low success rate. Some of the assassins are going to be plants from various intelligence/law enforcement agents from the get-go, some are going to be caught before go night and reveal their plans, some are going to talk to the wrong people and so on, there is no way such a plot can happen without being discovered. Once one intelligence service realize that the are multiple simultaneous assassinations planned for one night that they have discovered the cat is out of the bag. Some other nations will be warned because they are friendly and others no doubt have their own spies in unfriendly intelligence agencies, and if there is enough time to plan and get in position then every nations will know what is going on in advance. Once nations realize that there are likely to be many more assassins which haven't been discovered and it will be open season on anyone suspected of being a hit man, until go night when anyone of any importance is going to be protected by everything they can scrap together.

If you want a reasonable success rate do some disinformation, use assassins who are isolated (on a demi-plane with highly limited access?) while training on mock-ups of the assassination locations, and the day before go night teleport the assassins near where they are going to do their job. Someone is going to notice when 1000 hired killers disappear to your demi-plane but that is why you need the disinformation. With surprise and enough training you might be able to get a 50% success rate, although if surprise is lost a 5% success rate would be the best that could be expected.