Is there any guidance for a group that fails during the assault of Balentyne? (E.g. received 20 or less Victory Points, or was 'Repulsed' twice with 21-30 VP).
~page 51 of book-1
Tiadora's speech on page 77 really only applies if the group was successful. Likewise in Book-2, Thorn's speech on page 7 also reflects a successful outcome.
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Like any adventure path it is beyond the capacity of a mere 600-pages to contain every single possibility and its completely discussed ramifications. That said, we do give some small modicum of word count to abject PC failure and recovering from it.
On page 51 of Book One, we briefly mention presenting Book II as a plan B to failure.
So what does that mean? We are well into spoiler territory here...
If I was running a group that failed to burn Balentyne, then present the tears of Achlys as not a compliment but an alternative plan. By unleashing this pestilence Talingarde is weakened and Sakkarot's lieutenant Shagoroth Night-Mane (See Book III) breaks the Watch Wall. He proves to be the great bugbear military genius and gets all of Sakkarot's later lines.
Perhaps you could come up with a small scene where the PCs return to the site of their failure and pour a portion of the Tears into the castle well thus starting the plague.
And after that, you're off on a more normalized course of the adventure path...
Hope that helps!
Gary McBride
Fire Mountain Games