The Math Behind Never Using Ki Arrows


Pathfinder First Edition General Discussion


So to move this out of a semi-related PFS thread.

We were discussing the use of the ki arrows ability.

Wraith235 wrote:

9th level Flurry(full) Ki(swift) for extra damage

1d10 base = average of 5 x4 = 20

Vs

1d8 base = average of 4 x5 = 20

however once you crack the 2d6 barrier its Worth it

2d6 base = average of 7 x 5 = 35

vs.

1d8 base = average of 4 x6 =24

Correcting for the average of 1d8 being 4.5, that would be 27. But this doesn't take into account accuracy or any added damage to the arrows.

Let's assume we have a 12 level Zen Archer for the example above (where 5 attacks become 6). Let's further say that the Zen Archer can hit most enemies 90% of the time with the highest BAB attacks (hits on a 3 or above). This is probably an overestimate in favor of ki arrows (since ki arrows is better the more you hit). This means the second pair of attacks hit 65% of the time, and the final attack hits 40% of the time. So you expect to make 3.5 hits if you don't use ki for an extra attack, or 4.4 hits if you do. So right away we're looking at 24.5 expected damage for ki arrows and 19.8 expected damage for taking an extra attack with ki.

Now, however, we have to add in extra damage from various effects. Even if a zen archer doesn't spend feats on archery for some reason, they still get Weapon Specialization for free as a bonus feat. Let's assume that somehow, between Strength, Point Blank Shot, enhancement bonuses on the bow, and party buffs, the zen archer can only scrape another +4 to damage at level 12. This is obviously a stark underestimate at that level (my level 9 Zen Archer has +6 from permanent items only and without using Deadly Aim). The ki arrows is now giving 45.5 and taking an extra attack gives 46.2. For every point more you're doing than this, the extra attack gains more and more, and for every decrease in accuracy (at least until your accuracy becomes so low that you're basically missing with everything), the extra attack gains as well.

Obviously if you have access to gravity bow through a spell-storing ioun stone or wand, ki arrows is even worse.


Is this taking into account enlarge person?


Cheapy wrote:
Is this taking into account enlarge person?

Would it even work that way, given shrinkage? Even if so, that would just make it a poor choice (but not strictly worse) when comparing to using Gravity Bow with the extra attack. Now, if you compare Enlarge with Ki Arrows (if it works, which seems reasonable that it does) to extra attack with no commensurate buff, I'll have to actually pull out Deadly Aim and standard monster ACs to show that the extra attack is better ^_~

Also, of course, I'll relent for free that ki arrows is better if you're not penetrating heavy DR and don't have clustered shots, but the discussion from before was in the context of "is it worth it to take a neck slot item that raises your effective monk level by 3 for unarmed strike and movement if you're a zen archer", so to prove the other side, we'd want to prove that ki arrows is a good idea enough times to warrant purchasing and wearing the item rather than others.


Cheapy wrote:
Is this taking into account enlarge person?

Per the spell's rules: " Any enlarged item that leaves an enlarged creature's possession (including a projectile or thrown weapon) instantly returns to its normal size. This means that thrown and projectile weapons deal their normal damage."

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