Grand Magus |
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Two dozen Israeli fighter jets have just entered Jordanian airspace,
apparently en route to Iran... > A possible scenario <
LazarX |
It would be an incredibly stupid thing for Israel to do. The country is still surrounded by many who wish both it and the United States ill will but are still ambivalent enough to keep talking with both.
The real thing is... While support for Israel is at present a mantra that every politician must utter to the American electorate. That support can go away real quickly if a stunt like this resulted in a crippling boycott bigger than the one that gave a sucker punch to the West in the 70's. While America supports Israael presently because it is a convenient proxy, it won't support the country to the point of economic suicide. It's also why though Israel has been adventurous in the past, it's been very limited in how far it would cross the line to defy Washington.
It's the kind of move that can turn the whole region into a shooting gallery with most of Israel right in the crosshairs.
BigNorseWolf |
2 people marked this as a favorite. |
What if the reverse happens?
Oh wait, the country's neighbours are throwing small bombs at Israel every day.
A home made rocket without the explosive power of an arkansaw fishing pole isn't quite the same thing as a bunkerbuster from an F16.
Casualty rates are pretty low and have dropped signifigantly
Israel kills six times as many Palestinians, plus countless indefinite detentions without charges against protestors. Not that the US would do anything differently in that situation.
What i think would happen
Jordan would try to stay neutral, and face a possible overthrow from the arab spring as pan arab forces rally to attack israel. This would actually help israel, because israel has the ability to simply cross jordan's airspace whereas iran needs to actually cross through jordan on the ground to do the kind of damage it needs to to win.
The US would do some doublespeak to condemn the attacks and support Israels right to defend itself, and block the inevitable UN resolution to condemn the attack. Israel has a large support base in the United states. The Iranians that most americans can't tell apart from the terrorists who attacked us? Not so much.
Iran will try to close off the strait of hormuz. This will last approximately 15 minutes, but oil prices will sky rocket anyway.
The egyptian military would stay out of it, but massive numbers of egyptian citizens would try to attack israel.
The Palestinians of course would rise up, Israel would respond, clear people out for "Strategic concerns" and then keep the land until the end of time.
It overall seems like a win win for Israel.
yellowdingo |
3 people marked this as a favorite. |
What if the reverse happens?
Oh wait, the country's neighbours are throwing small bombs at Israel every day.
Oh, you mean all those Palestinians who had their country stolen out from under them by the USA and a bunch off European Governments who saw it as a solution to their Jewish problem...
Time to accept facts - the governing of others is a crime and only digs mass graves.
You want to bring down Iran? offer every unmarried Female citizenship in the USA with the right to represent herself in Parliament for life in a process that requires consensus and a air ticket to get to the USA, free home in a city built exclusively for women, and schooling/training and a future. Then watch how many nations deny Women the right to leave to the point of those nations and their cultures collapsing in on themselves. and becoming extinct when women realize they have freedoms at the approval of men. That's how you wage war.
yellowdingo |
yellowdingo wrote:offer every unmarried Female citizenship in the USA with the right to represent herself in Parliament for lifeWe do not have a Parliament.
Yup - you have a big white Palace where your Emperor lives...and a Senate where wealthy patriarchs from the provinces meet to plot his death on the steps on the Ides of March.
Spanky the Leprechaun |
60 minutes interviews Meir Dagan.
He's a former leader of Mossad, and he says they have three years to wait.
BigNorseWolf |
2 people marked this as a favorite. |
BigNorseWolf wrote:That question explains so much.Icyshadow wrote:... why?That will never catch on, as much as I wish it did.
I already got enough death threats being a jewish person in Finland.
Sorry if i come from an area where anti semitism is pretty much a non issue. Being Jewish has about as much effect as having blond hair, being a Presbyterian or a vegetarian. I mean if you said you live in the west bank or germany sure... but FINLAND? "Hot bed of antisemitism" would come to my mind when thinking about Finland some time after "bikini wearing alien beach party"
thejeff |
No win scenario.
It would be bad if Israel bombed Iran.
It would be bad if Israel doesn't bomb Iran.
Best serious estimates are that any bombing attack on Iran, short of nukes or a full-scale invasion, would set Iran's nuclear program back by a year or two. And drive it even deeper underground and make it even harder to attack next time.
It's also likely to solidify support behind Iran's hard-liners.
BigNorseWolf |
No. It is filled with hate.
It doesn't have a mechanism for it. even one nuke, IF it can deliver it, won't destroy Israel. Israel can continue to sabatoge Irans nuclear program while it works on getting some of the better bunker busters from the US. (on the offhand chance it doesn't already have them)
Icyshadow |
Sorry if i come from an area where anti semitism is pretty much a non issue. Being Jewish has about as much effect as having blond hair, being a Presbyterian or a vegetarian. I mean if you said you live in the west bank or germany sure... but FINLAND? "Hot bed of antisemitism" would come to my mind when thinking about Finland some time after "bikini wearing alien beach party"Crimson Jester wrote:BigNorseWolf wrote:That question explains so much.Icyshadow wrote:... why?That will never catch on, as much as I wish it did.
I already got enough death threats being a jewish person in Finland.
Did you know that the three main places for Neo Nazis in the world are Germany, Russia and Finland?
And really, the jewish are hated everywhere. It's always been that way, and looks to me like it always will be.
Nicos |
BigNorseWolf wrote:Go ask the neo-nazis or that one kurd who gave me a long-winded speech about why people apparently hate jewish people.Icyshadow wrote:... why?That will never catch on, as much as I wish it did.
I already got enough death threats being a jewish person in Finland.
The fact that there exist crazy neonazis that hate jews should be irrelevant to the palestine-israel issue.
BigNorseWolf |
Did you know that the three main places for Neo Nazis in the world are Germany, Russia and Finland?
Yes, yes on disliking the jews no on actualy neo nazis, and no.
Any reason you wound up with so many?
And really, the jewish are hated everywhere. It's always been that way, and looks to me like it always will be.
If you're seeing it everywhere you're probably seeing something else.
Icyshadow |
IcyShadow wrote:Did you know that the three main places for Neo Nazis in the world are Germany, Russia and Finland?Yes, yes on disliking the jews no on actualy neo nazis, and no.
Any reason you wound up with so many?
Quote:And really, the jewish are hated everywhere. It's always been that way, and looks to me like it always will be.If you're seeing it everywhere you're probably seeing something else.
Are you one of those people who say the Holocaust never happened?
And yes, perhaps I exaggerated. But it is known there are neo-nazis in Korso, and I have received legitimate death threats just because I am jewish.
BigNorseWolf |
Are you one of those people who say the Holocaust never happened?
Headdesk. No, but thank you for proving my point.
And yes, perhaps I exaggerated. But it is known there are neo-nazis in Korso, and I have received legitimate death threats just because I am jewish.
I'm american. You realize i needed to google Korso right? I've never heard of the place, much less looked into its subcultures.
Icyshadow |
Proving what point? You didn't really seem to have one aside from trying to troll me when I admit I don't feel safe anywhere I go. Also, the conflict between Israel and Iran is going to come to a point eventually. What happens then? Who knows. Lastly, why did you make fun of the average intelligence levels of the American people? Maybe you were just kidding?
Mazra |
1 person marked this as a favorite. |
Mazra wrote:No. It is filled with hate.Enough hate that they will nuke Israel as soon as they get the chance? Despite the certainty of retaliation from Israel's nukes? And probably America's as well?
Possibly?
Thursday, 02 Aug 2012
In a speech published on his website Thursday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the ultimate goal of world forces must be the annihilation of Israel.
Speaking to ambassadors from Islamic countries ahead of 'Qods Day' ('Jerusalem Day'), an annual Iranian anti-Zionist event established in 1979 by Ayatollah Khomeini and which falls this year on August 17, Ahmadinejad said that a "horrible Zionist current" had been managing world affairs for "about 400 years."
It was Zionists, he said, who were “behind the scene of the world’s main powers, media, monetary and banking centers.”
"They are the decision makers, to the extent that the presidential election hopefuls [of the USA] must go and kiss the feet of the Zionists to ensure their election victory,” he added.
Ahmadinejad added that "liberating Palestine" would solve all the world's problems, although he did not elaborate on exactly how that might work.
“Qods Day is not merely a strategic solution for the Palestinian problem, as it is to be viewed as a key for solving the world problems," he said.
He added: "Anyone who loves freedom and justice must strive for the annihilation of the Zionist regime in order to pave the way for world justice and freedom.”
BigNorseWolf |
Proving what point? You didn't really seem to have one aside from trying to troll me when I admit I don't feel safe anywhere I go.
My point was that when you think people are after you everywhere, there are either people after you everywhere or you're paranoid. If you're interpreting a lack of familiarity with a sub culture in a district in a city I've never heard of with holocaust denial its seriously pointing at the latter.
If you're getting death threats then i can tell you with certainty that there's a lot of the world where things are much better.
Also, the conflict between Israel and Iran is going to come to a point eventually. What happens then?
Israel wins. They've fought against worse odds without having the advantage of 50 years of military advancement on their side.
Lastly, why did you make fun of the average intelligence levels of the American people? Maybe you were just kidding?
There was a bit of tongue in cheek humor, but a lack of familiarity with a section of a small city in a country half a world away is not indicative of intelligence.
thejeff |
There's certainly some of that: drumming up internal (and external Arabic) support by ranting against Israel.
He may even be serious about wanting Israel destroyed. The question is whether he's willing to guarantee the destruction of his own country, including the loss of his own power and probably his death, to have a chance of destroying Israel. And of whether the real powers in Iran would allow it.
Maccabee |
1 person marked this as a favorite. |
I think Mahmoud is a politician, and like all politicians is full of bluster. Going Nuclear will just give them global leverage that they've been seriously wanting. He can say what he wants but he isnt going to nuke Israel unless he's backed by the other big global fish that dont give a fig about Israel: Russia and China.
IMO Israel attacking would be a mistake because it would just give validation to their opponents. If it actually happened, Israel would kick Irans teeth in, and Iranian citizens would suffer terribly for having bad leadership (on both sides).