There are two types of Economic indicators you need to be aware of:

o Leading indicators predict future trends.
o Lagging indicators reflect the economy’s historical performance.

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Leading ones are much more fun.
Some other favorite Economic Indicators:

1.

An analysis of more than 2,000 skirts and dresses shows hemlines are up. Will money follow?"

2.

3.

And the ever popular "Buy a Gun" Google query.

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I think we're preparing for the apocalypse. Everything is an end-of-the-world crisis these days.

There are two types of Economic indicators you need to be aware of:

o Leading indicators predict future trends.
o Lagging indicators reflect the economy’s historical performance.

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Leading ones are much more fun.
Some other favorite Economic Indicators:

1. ** spoiler omitted **

An analysis of more than 2,000 skirts and dresses shows hemlines are up. Will money follow?"

2. ** spoiler omitted **

3.

And the ever popular "Buy a Gun" Google query

So are these leading or lagging indicators?

So are these leading or lagging indicators?

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How can we tell?

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thejeff wrote:

So are these leading or lagging indicators?

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How can we tell?

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I don't know. You talked about leading/lagging indicators, then brought these up. I figured you might know.

Why are we treating the hemline theory like it's somehow not a bunch of misogynistic nonsense? No such pattern exists, but the "hemline index" and similar equivalents mostly just exist to trivialize actual economic effects caused by women.

No such pattern exists, but the "hemline index" and similar equivalents mostly just exist to trivialize actual economic effects caused by women.

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Is this existence mostly a natural phenomenon, or is there a secret
organization propagating it from generation to generation?

Who would do such a thing?

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Is this existence mostly a natural phenomenon, or is there a secret

organization propagating it from generation to generation?

No. The "hemline index" is not a thing. There is no correlation between hemlines and the economy.

Also, secret organizations, lol.

Grand Magus wrote:

thejeff wrote:

So are these leading or lagging indicators?

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How can we tell?

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I don't know. You talked about leading/lagging indicators, then brought these up. I figured you might know.

hmm... let's take a look at the defs:

o Leading indicators predict future trends.
o Lagging indicators reflect the economy’s historical performance.

Can an indicator be both?

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Next, lets take an example case -- how about GDP, and try to figure it out.
Maybe if we get this one, we can figure out if other indicators are Leading or Lagging?

Does GDP tell us where we have been or where we are going? More importantly,
for us, why?

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Spurred by aspersions cast on my education, I went looking for stuff and I found this.

Reading it might clue people into what Ozymandias is looking for and, as a bonus, it's written by Tyler Durden! Yay!

Hm, let's check out Anklebiter's site there.

I think it’s safe to say with some conviction that in the year of 2012 the concept of survival prepping is NOT an alien one to most Americans.  When National Geographic decides there is a viable market for a prepper TV show (no matter how misrepresentative of true preppers it may be), when Walmart starts stocking shelves with long term emergency food storage kits, when survivalism in general becomes one of the few growing business markets in the midst of an otherwise disintegrating economy; you know that the methodology has gone “mainstream”.  There is a noticeable and expanding concern amongst Americans that we are, indeed, on the verge of something new and unfortunate.  Is it the big bad hoodoo of the soon to expire Mayan Calendar?  For a few, maybe, but for the majority of us, no.  That jazz is a carnival sideshow designed to make the prepping culture appear ridiculous.  We don’t need to believe in magical prophecies to know that there is a catastrophic road ahead; all we have to do is look at the stark realities of our current circumstances.  It does not take much awareness anymore to notice looming fiscal volatility, social unrest, the potential for unrestrained war, and the totalitarian boldness of our government.  I’ll take the wrath of Quetzalcoatl any day over the manure storm that is approaching us currently.

seems legit

Woah, woah, woah!

I mean, Tyler Durden is cool and all, but he's not me.

Or is he?

First rule of the Glorious People's Revolution is we don't talk about the Glorious People's Revolution!

Well, no, actually we do. Like all the time.

The kind of ironic part about preppers is that we're currently living in the best age to be alive.

You are less likely to die of disease, starvation, or violence than at any point in history. You're less likely to be a slave, or imprisoned, or living under tyranny.

From 1800 to 2012, every metric one can measure shows that every country on earth has improved in every stat.

It's amazing what the media has done to create such fear in a people who have so little to actually fear.

As an example, the Conservative Party of Canada recently won an election based on being "tough on crime", which polls well with people who think crime is a problem.

Here's the issue: Canada is at a 30 year crime low. There has not been less crime in Canada since the 70s. There's very little crime to be tough against.

There is a massive disconnect between reality and the average person's perception of reality.

There is a massive disconnect between reality and the average person's perception of reality.

Foster, You're Dead!

Philip K. Dick, naliling it almost 60 years ago.

The kind of ironic part about preppers is that we're currently living in the best age to be alive.

You are less likely to die of disease, starvation, or violence than at any point in history. You're less likely to be a slave, or imprisoned, or living under tyranny.

From 1800 to 2012, every metric one can measure shows that every country on earth has improved in every stat.

It's amazing what the media has done to create such fear in a people who have so little to actually fear.

As an example, the Conservative Party of Canada recently won an election based on being "tough on crime", which polls well with people who think crime is a problem.

Here's the issue: Canada is at a 30 year crime low. There has not been less crime in Canada since the 70s. There's very little crime to be tough against.

There is a massive disconnect between reality and the average person's perception of reality.

That safety is an illusion. All it takes is a long term power grid failure, natural disaster (how safe was NO after Katrina) or financial disaster to see violence and destruction go rampant. LA riots showed how fast one small area can self destruct, do you doubt that can happen on a larger scale?

That safety is an illusion. All it takes is a long term power grid failure, natural disaster (how safe was NO after Katrina)

People were fairly safe. The only incidents of shooting deaths I can find were looters: and looters are going to hit walmart before they hit your homes.

or financial disaster to see violence and destruction go rampant. LA riots showed how fast one small area can self destruct, do you doubt that can happen on a larger scale?

I think its hard to have it happen on a larger scale just because of population density. A riot happens because a large group of people is in the same place at the same time all doing the same thing. Its harder to pull off in the burbs, much less the country.

By the way, being a prepper can earn you extra scrutiny from the DHS. Its a warning sign of terrorism.

My apologies. Above it should read "were looters shot by police"

Or occasionally by other residents, IIRC.

And the "looters" tended to be black. While the whites taking stuff out of flooded stores were just being resourceful.

There was a lot of barely concealed racism in what happened in NO and in how it was reported.

Can you cite any incidents that happening at a residence? It just seems that as far as needing to shoot people to defend yourself katrina didn't seem that much worse than a bad weekend.

Not at a residence, but here's a NY Times story.

It wasn't about needing to shoot people to defend yourself, but about vigilantes. The people who needed to defend themselves were the ones getting shot.

By the way, being a prepper can earn you extra scrutiny from the DHS. Its a warning sign of terrorism.

Yep, i hit a few of the "warning signs" for a serial killer or terrorist. kinda funny really

TheWhiteknife wrote:

By the way, being a prepper can earn you extra scrutiny from the DHS. Its a warning sign of terrorism.

Yep, i hit a few of the "warning signs" for a serial killer or terrorist. kinda funny really

Being a gamer is probably one of them. Not statistically, but definitely in the the agencies eyes.

Andrew R wrote:

TheWhiteknife wrote:

By the way, being a prepper can earn you extra scrutiny from the DHS. Its a warning sign of terrorism.

Yep, i hit a few of the "warning signs" for a serial killer or terrorist. kinda funny really

Weapons collector, big on wilderness survival training, collect emergency supplies.

Being a gamer is probably one of them. Not statistically, but definitely in the the agencies eyes.

I can guarantee you that the CIA doesn't care one bit about you.

How is that, you ask?

Using exactly the same factual basis as your claim here! Isn't making things up magical?

BigNorseWolf wrote:

Being a gamer is probably one of them. Not statistically, but definitely in the the agencies eyes.

I can guarantee you that the CIA doesn't care one bit about you.

How is that, you ask?

Using exactly the same factual basis as your claim here! Isn't making things up magical?

Well it isn't something to make them follow me but like every case if something did happen they would point it out as something that made me do it

Well it isn't something to make them follow me but like every case if something did happen they would point it out as something that made me do it

I dunno, I'd suspect that it was the rampant, baseless paranoia.

Andrew R wrote:

Well it isn't something to make them follow me but like every case if something did happen they would point it out as something that made me do it

I dunno, I'd suspect that it was the rampant, baseless paranoia.

Nothing paranoid about being prepared for a crisis.

He's not referring to the prepping as paranoia, but rather the CIA watchlist of preppers.

He's not referring to the prepping as paranoia, but rather the CIA watchlist of preppers.

I was referring to the idea that the CIA cares about anyone on this board as paranoia.

Irontruth wrote:

He's not referring to the prepping as paranoia, but rather the CIA watchlist of preppers.

I was referring to the idea that the CIA cares about anyone on this board as paranoia.

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But you can use private email to send anonymous encrypted messages from
anywhere in the world. And you know the only one watching is Vic.

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But you can use private email to send anonymous encrypted messages from anywhere in the world. And you know the only one watching is Vic.

You're kind of vague on the meaning of "anonymous" and "encrypted", huh.

Given the high-levels of dorkiness in the ranks of CIA analyst-dom, I wouldn't be surprised if 2 or 3 are reading this thread right now.

Given the high-levels of dorkiness in the ranks of CIA analyst-dom, I wouldn't be surprised if 2 or 3 are reading this thread right now.

How do you know I don't work for the CIA?

I don't. Nor do I care.

If you guys didn't pick me up when I was a militant communist activist, I highly doubt you're going to do it because I'm trolling Paizo.

Grand Magus wrote:

But you can use private email to send anonymous encrypted messages from anywhere in the world. And you know the only one watching is Vic.

You're kind of vague on the meaning of "anonymous" and "encrypted", huh.

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I didn't define these terms, because each only has one meaning that is
relevant.

What is it that you really want to know?

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Is >this< trend your fried?

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Ok. It looks like we are safe. The trend is going down. Looks
like Obama's policies are paying off, so we can safely elect him as president
again.

The Economy is back !!

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Biden's point-blank advice: Buy a shotgun

hmmm... will this work?

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Biden's point-blank advice: Buy a shotgun

hmmm... will this work?

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No it won't, he is an idiot.

No it won't, he is an idiot.

Could you back up an insult like that with... something?

Also they are talking about banning the shotgun i want.

Dare I ask how fast the one you want shoots?

Andrew R wrote:

No it won't, he is an idiot.

Could you back up an insult like that with... something?

Quote:

Also they are talking about banning the shotgun i want.

Dare I ask how fast the one you want shoots?

He says dumb &^%$ all of the time.

Pump action, but it has dual tubes so you can load more and load 2 different kinds and switch with a button.

I really am not a fan of fast firing to begin with. i prefer revolvers and both of my rifles are bolt action. Reliable firing is better than fast.

He says dumb &^%$ all of the time.

Such as? I see this narrative a lot but with very little substance to back it up.

ANYONE that speaks extemporaneously is going to flub their words on occasion. Don't give me a slip of the tongue.

Pump action, but it has dual tubes so you can load more and load 2 different kinds and switch with a button.

So its being banned based on its ammo capacity?

I once told me (now ex-) father in law my dream shotgun was the SA-24 Striker. He asked why. I said "I'm a bad shot. If I'm defending your daughter from an intruder, I want the luxury of putting 24 rounds of buckshot in the air between me and said intruder. I can pick the pellets out of the walls and respackle later."

Besides, with Democrat legislature hot to pass ex-post facto laws and ignore the 2nd and 4th amendments, (and their own state constitutions) I can't blame people. Just wish I could afford a PS-90 right now.

Andrew R wrote:

He says dumb &^%$ all of the time.

Such as? I see this narrative a lot but with very little substance to back it up.

ANYONE that speaks extemporaneously is going to flub their words on occasion. Don't give me a slip of the tongue.

Quote:

Pump action, but it has dual tubes so you can load more and load 2 different kinds and switch with a button.

So its being banned based on its ammo capacity?

On the possible banned list like MANY guns simply for looking scary. I can get a magazine for my mossberg and a tube extender and have as many shots

Andrew R wrote:

He says dumb &^%$ all of the time.

Such as? I see this narrative a lot but with very little substance to back it up.

ANYONE that speaks extemporaneously is going to flub their words on occasion. Don't give me a slip of the tongue.

Quote:

Pump action, but it has dual tubes so you can load more and load 2 different kinds and switch with a button.

So its being banned based on its ammo capacity?

Biden too easy

Of course, I'd say that we want to give the same standard to President Bush...

He mis speaks at least as often as bush and look how folks tore into him, biden is their guy though so he gets a pass

Of course, I'd say that we want to give the same standard to President Bush...

They flub about as often. The difference is that bush did it that often with relatively few public appearances (none of which were unscripted) where as Biden would show up to the opening of a quickimart for a pack of cheetos and a slushy and field open questions about area 51.

Grand Magus wrote:

Is this existence mostly a natural phenomenon, or is there a secret

organization propagating it from generation to generation?

No. The "hemline index" is not a thing. There is no correlation between hemlines and the economy.

Also, secret organizations, lol.

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Not even 0 correlation. That's deep man.

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