Acceptable Chance of Success for PC casting save-or-lose spells


Pathfinder First Edition General Discussion


Hey everyone,

In another thread on eliminating stat boosts, a tangent came up as to what is an "acceptable" chance of success (success meaning the bad guy fails their save) when a PC casts a spell with a saving throw at high levels. I decided to fork this new thread to ask you, fellow Paizonians, what you think about that because I believe I may have finally realised why some people are having casters absolutely dominate the non-casters in their games, and why that isn't usually the case for me.

So what do you think is an acceptable chance for a PC caster to have on the enemy failing its save vs their best (and thus highest DC) spell, and let's assume that this is an instant-win on the failed save. Also assume that the enemy in question is a BBEG that is encountered with a few minions, so CR of the BBEG=APL+2 (feel free to post other thoughts with other assumptions). Does this number change for you at high levels versus low? I'll post my thoughts later--I don't want to bias the thread by starting off with what I think.

Grand Lodge

Pathfinder Adventure, Rulebook Subscriber

35.67%


Generally in run of the mill encounters (CR = PC level) I feel that a wizard should be able to expect about a 45~65% (depending on the save targeted, the creature being targeted, and secondary effects from spell in question -- so on and so on) chance of success with his best spells.

In "hard encounters" (those with bosses, or what have you -- CR > PC level) That success rate should probably drop about 10~15% per point the CR is higher than the level -- these are the fights he should probably use secondary effect spells, spells with no save, or nice buffing spells on his party to get full effect from his slots.

With a mixture of all sorts of encounters there should be times when the wizard can stop the fight in one round with an "I win" spell and times where casting that spell should be met with a look of "You really thought this was the time for that?"


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Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber; Pathfinder Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber

Well, let's see.

Generally, I can get a single score in the 30s by the time I am 15th-level.

18 base
06 item
05 tome
03 level
02 race

34 TOTAL @ 15th

That, when combined with heighten spell, spell focus, and greater spell focus gives us a final DC of

10 base
12 ability score
08 highest spell level
02 greater spell focus

32 TOTAL @ 15th

Comparing that to a number of CR 15 creatures tells me that appropriate challenges have on average ~35% of making a successful saving throw (not counting for spell resistance).

As per your instructions, I have compared it to more powerful critters as well (CR 17). Such creatures tend to have about an ~85% success rate against a 15th-level caster.

Not everyone will start out with an 18, or have a racial bonus, or be able to afford such potent magical items, however. On average, ~30 in your primary casting stat by level 15th is much more likely (give or take 2 points).

(Personally, I could get it much higher with things like the lich template and aging bonuses/penalties if I really wanted to push the cheese factor.)

That leads me to believe that, at high levels at least, a %40-60 chance in YOUR favor is pretty acceptable. Kill or stop anything of your CR in about 2 rounds, anything higher in 3, and anything lower in 1.

Probably the best spell in the game for SAVE OR SCREW is Flesh to Stone. So long as the target is made of flesh, it's essentially save or die. Heighten the hell out of it.

(And again, my numbers do not account for SR, which may well improve a monster's staying power. Other factors, such as not having any more high level spell slots left, may affect a monster's ability to stay in the fight as well.)


I would agree with Abraham that on a CR=PC level creature, an approx 45%-65% seems right. And that would be for a totally-waste-the-creature kind of spell.

With that said, it is more complex then that. Most creatures will have good and bad saves, often being spread up to 10 points apart. While it would sometimes be obvious which are good/bad, often a relevant knowledge skill check would be required to know. Also, a CR= PC level creature is kind of a chump, and would probably go down within a few rounds no matter what. Finally, spell resistance should be considered. Granted it isn't normally a big deal, but it is another chance to totally lose a spell, often with 0 effect. In some cases, (drow, rakshasa, flayers of the mind, etc.) it can have a large effect.

It seems from reading these boards that many DM's won't allow their BBEG's to go down in the first round if they roll bad on the saving throw. I think this leads to a perception that save or suck/die magic isn't as powerful as it seems to folks who roll in the open.


Fergie wrote:


It seems from reading these boards that many DM's won't allow their BBEG's to go down in the first round if they roll bad on the saving throw. I think this leads to a perception that save or suck/die magic isn't as powerful as it seems to folks who roll in the open.

This:

Realize that if we state a 45% normally and reduce that by 30% for a CR = level +2 then that means 15% of the time that spell better work. Yes this means that the ocassional BBEG will drop to a spell in the first round. However this isn't any different than when a fighter gets a lucky critical or the paladin gets a charging smite in and lays waste to a demon boss. The wizard got his lucky one in a lot shot to work and he should get his props for doing so -- not told, "Too bad he saved anyways" just to salve the GM's ego.


Now that you guys have had a chance to answer, I find I agree with pretty much everyone that ~15% is good for the APL+2 boss encounter. My PCs would only use that kind of stuff against those sorts of enemies if they were in serious trouble, since high variance benefits the side that is losing. I would want the chance to be lower than some of the quoted numbers for an on-CR opponent--the on-CR opponent should be equal to one PC in power, not a faceless mook (I'd prefer 30-35%: they know there's not a terrible chance of pulling it off, but it's still a risky gamble). Now, if they were fighting a large group of weaker enemies, that's where I'd want the chances to be high for something like Wail of the Banshee or Colour Spray to work their magic. These numbers bear out for me reasonably well.


Rogue Eidolon wrote:
I would want the chance to be lower than some of the quoted numbers for an on-CR opponent--the on-CR opponent should be equal to one PC in power, not a faceless mook (I'd prefer 30-35%: they know there's not a terrible chance of pulling it off, but it's still a risky gamble).

See a CR = opponent is a faceless mook -- they aren't really a challenge for the party -- as a DM do you want your monsters to have a 65~70% failure rate on anything they do? Do you really want that as a player? Especially since each time you use one of your powers you are weaker than before you used it (regardless of success) and can't do it again until the next day?

On top of that all we are talking about your best spell possible only having a 30~35% chance of success -- that means the rest of your spells are complete crap for DC. Considering you'll be casting very few of your highest spell level spells having everything else you can cast be a non starter means you have reintroduced the fifteen minute adventure day -- "Sorry guys I spent all the spells I have a 35% chance of using successfully -- I know none of them worked -- to bad I'm out of anything that can actually be useful for the rest of the day."

That's not my cup of tea.

(please note there is a slight amount of exaggeration in this post -- the other spell levels are not completely crap -- but your chances of directly affecting your enemies drops significantly and you are reduced to the spells GMs tend to hate because they don't allow saves and summons -- which is funny since the GM forces you into this by making you the king of fail )


Abraham spalding wrote:
Rogue Eidolon wrote:
I would want the chance to be lower than some of the quoted numbers for an on-CR opponent--the on-CR opponent should be equal to one PC in power, not a faceless mook (I'd prefer 30-35%: they know there's not a terrible chance of pulling it off, but it's still a risky gamble).

See a CR = opponent is a faceless mook -- they aren't really a challenge for the party -- as a DM do you want your monsters to have a 65~70% failure rate on anything they do? Do you really want that as a player? Especially since each time you use one of your powers you are weaker than before you used it (regardless of success) and can't do it again until the next day?

On top of that all we are talking about your best spell possible only having a 30~35% chance of success -- that means the rest of your spells are complete crap for DC. Considering you'll be casting very few of your highest spell level spells having everything else you can cast be a non starter means you have reintroduced the fifteen minute adventure day -- "Sorry guys I spent all the spells I have a 35% chance of using successfully -- I know none of them worked -- to bad I'm out of anything that can actually be useful for the rest of the day."

That's not my cup of tea.

(please note there is a slight amount of exaggeration in this post -- the other spell levels are not completely crap -- but your chances of directly affecting your enemies drops significantly and you are reduced to the spells GMs tend to hate because they don't allow saves and summons -- which is funny since the GM forces you into this by making you the king of fail )

Note: I realised after typing a lot of stuff that we may not be in disagreement. You previously said that you like to see enemies in a "CR=APL encounter" fail their saves 45-65% of the time. If you meant enemies in an encounter with several enemies that add up to CR=APL, I agree, and I'd be happy to see it go even higher in that case (in that case, no need to keep reading). I also am assuming the standard DCs for the character's highest level spells, not including Spell Focus feats (so that gets up to 45%, which is in your range at least, for someone who is so focused on that kind of thing that they take two feats). If you did mean those chances for a single opponent that was CR=APL, feel free to read on and see if you find any of my thoughts on the matter worthy of consideration.

~~~

Thanks for replying--I'm finding this conversation enlightening. Here's my thoughts on the matter: A CR=APL opponent isn't a faceless mook unless the PCs are faceless mooks. If it's alone, it's going to lose badly, but only because there are four PCs. It's supposed to take 1/4 of your resources to take down one of them as a party. Take four CR=APL opponents and you have a challenging encounter (total EL=APL+4).

Take a CR=APL foe alone, and it should have a 50/50 shot of winning against a single PC (at least). Let's consider 60% chance of failing their weakest save as the target here, from many people's posts--unless the enemy also has a save-or-lose spell with similar chances to succeed against the PC (or a single attack / pounce damaging enough to kill the PC on its first turn), that's already past the 50/50.

Quote:
as a DM do you want your monsters to have a 65~70% failure rate on anything they do?

By everything, do you mean attacks with save DCs? That's already true. Those basically never work for monsters. I think the first time I hit a PC with Poison and they actually took the ability damage in the past few months was today when four monsters all stacked the same poison and raised the DC up. My PCs tend to make the DCs of monster's special attacks (barring a few very high ones that are also Reflex saves like Dragon breaths) at least 70% of the time.

If by everything, you also include hitting with melee attacks or ranged touch attack spells or the like, that was never in contention in this thread. Players know that critters often have high saves, and they make the choice to have a lower chance of success for a higher pay-off when they target saves rather than touch AC, for instance.

Quote:

On top of that all we are talking about your best spell possible only having a 30~35% chance of success -- that means the rest of your spells are complete crap for DC. Considering you'll be casting very few of your highest spell level spells having everything else you can cast be a non starter means you have reintroduced the fifteen minute adventure day -- "Sorry guys I spent all the spells I have a 35% chance of using successfully -- I know none of them worked -- to bad I'm out of anything that can actually be useful for the rest of the day."

(please note there is a slight amount of exaggeration in this post)

I homebrewed my games for years, but by chance, I've been playing a lot of my PF out of APs because people wanted RotRL (granted I make some changes when converting). So when I say what I would like the chances to be, well, they aren't quite there because I'm not going to arbitrarily add to the AP's numbers. Ravingdork's numbers look accurate for what we actually see (subtracting the 10% for not having both Spell Focuses, Ravingdork's math gives ~45% chance for a CR=APL monster to fail a weak save, on average). When I homebrew, I'm conscious of an enemy's weak save and have them take efforts to always keep them up, and this leads a bit closer to my percentages instead (Adding Iron Will or the like changes 45% to 35% and does the deed on its own).

I actually don't think you exaggerated too much there. The lower level save-or-sucks are pretty bad bang for their buck at that point. However, this doesn't lead to a 15 minute adventuring day at all. In my experience, spellcasters just don't prep very many low-level save-or-lose spells after a certain point. Low-level buffs and such are much more effective, and actual damage spells become useful choices too.

I love casters, and I play them pretty much every game, but people who complain about casters are pretty much right that their versatility makes them very powerful. There's plenty they can do with lower level slots that aren't save-or-lose, and there's still room for the crazy moments of triumph with save-or-lose (for instance): The party were all trapped in Resilient Spheres cast during a Greater Anticipate Teleport by a Simulacrum of one of the main campaign villains. The Wu Jen, completely by himself (with no possibility of backup), popped out of the bubble and took on the enemy alone. He shot a Sudden Maximised Disintegrate at the Simulacrum. It rolled a 1 on its save. Later he pulled the same trick while assassinating the Emperor, to the same result of a natural 1. We will always remember those moments.

~~~

Anyhow, even if my thoughts aren't too convincing, that's how I think it works out. At least in my group, save-or-die spells are rare and scary for both sides--rare because of the lowish chance, so people don't want to fill themselves completely up on those spells. Scary because there's still a non-negligible chance that it's going to work.

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