|1 person marked this as a favorite.|
Without much of a struggle? That's refreshing. How do you figure? Earlier polls said "Trump is unelectable". From there, it has gone to "a few percent in favour of Clinton".
Sure, I hope Clinton will bag the election easily. But what has changed since?
Trump couldn't muster a majority of Republicans in the primary... and they're only ~23% of the total electorate. His nomination is an accident of history... the result of too many Republican candidates thinking they could be 'the one' and thus splitting the remotely sane vote half a dozen different ways while the b+##@@& crazy wing just kept consolidating around the clear standout for their ideals.
The demographics of the general election are vastly different and stacked against ANY Republican candidate at this point... but Trump is especially screwed because women overall despise him. His only hope is that vast numbers of poorly educated older white males have been hiding out in the boondocks waiting for THIS election to finally go to the polls... while the vast number of eligible minority voters that we know haven't been voting continue to stay away. If that happens then he's got a shot. Otherwise, it ain't gonna happen short of an 'October surprise' catastrophe for the Clinton campaign.
Trump also won the Republican primary because the Republican base has been more and more dominated by that b+##@@& crazy wing. Why vote for the candidate dog whistling his support for your crazy when you've got someone willing to come right out and say it? It's not really clear how much things would have changed with less candidates. Trump was still winning primaries when it was down to 3.
Trouble is, that kind of crazy doesn't help in the general. Anything's possible in politics, but the odds are very long. Any Democratic candidate has serious structural advantages. None of it's helped by Trump not being serious about campaigning. He's not fundraising effectively. He's not building a ground campaign. He's not interested in the kind of voter data that's been winning elections. He took off on a foreign trip to plug his Scottish gold course. He's been holding events in states he shouldn't lose and in states he can't win.
It's possible we're in some kind of paradigm shift and twitter and randomly places huge rallies are now the effective way to campaign, but I don't see any evidence for it.