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My Plan: I will dump the anti-matter in the ship's wake, and fire up the
To counter the the expected Corbomite counter-maneuver, I will have a
I was talking to this dude studying molecular biology;
His thought is we (humans) only have one shot to do this right.
How did everybody do? What did you think of Bayesian Networks? . Available units:
Do the dinosaurs in this equation have laser rifles?No but they have Brilliant Energy teeth. This is a great idea. Laser rifles and Brilliant Energy teeth should make the dirty beast more efficient, right?Since the Poisson rate (lambda) controls the rate, or how "efficient",
So, let's say the tyrannosaur now: (ii) eats scientists (10,000 calories each) at a Poisson rate of
. 1. Calculate the probability that the tyrannosaur dies within
. Also, if we relate this increase in Poisson rate back to your own
hint:
We know the dirty dinosaur starts with 10,000 calories, and we know
Day 1:
Day 2: -- Now, think about the possible cases for Day 2 given what could have
. Oh, yay. A little line diagram will really help you stay organazied.
A tyrannosaur is walking around.
For this tyrannosaur with 10,000 calories stored: (i) The tyrannosaur uses calories uniformly at a rate of 10,000 per day.
(ii) The tyrannosaur eats scientists (10,000 calories each) at a
(iii) The tyrannosaur eats only scientists. (iv) The tyrannosaur can store calories without limit until needed. 1. Calculate the probability that the tyrannosaur dies within
2. Calculate the expected calories eaten in the next 2.5 days.
A simple dueling game:
Consider a duel between two players, Ross and Cosmo. Each has a nerf
They start far away from each other, and begin to slowly advance. As they get closer the
Lets model this and say, Ross and Cosmo start the duel at a distance t = 1 from each other.
As they get closer to each other, their accuracy increases. At distance t, Ross has a
In this duel, missing your shot is very costly. If a Ross shoots and misses, then Cosmo
What is the optimal strategy of this game? That is, at what point should each player shoot? Solution: when Ross should fire:
The tricky part to the game is balancing when to shoot. If you fire too early, then your opponent
We can think about when Ross should fire by listing out the chance of surviving in the
Now we can reason out Ross‘s strategy. Ross will want to fire first if his chance of hitting
a(t) ≥ 1 – b(t) But he must also be careful not to fire too early. He should always wait if his chance of
a(t) ≤ 1 – b(t) Putting those two equations together, we can see that Ross should shoot at the time when he is
a(t*) = 1 – b(t*) Or alternately written, a(t*) + b(t*) = 1
Solution: when Cosmo should fire:
We can do the same exercise for Cosmo. Notice the same conditions are true: Now we can reason out Cosmo‘s strategy. Cosmo will fire first, if his chance of hitting is
b(t) ≥ 1 – a(t) But he must also be sure not to fire too soon. He needs to wait so long as his chance of hitting
b(t) ≤ 1 – a(t) Putting those two equations together, we can see that Cosmo should shoot at the time when
b(t*) = 1 – a(t*) Or alternately written, a(t*) + b(t*) = 1
Solution: they fire at the same time!:
From the equations, you’ll notice that both Ross and Cosmo choose to fire at the same time!
This would not be surprising if these two had the same accuracy level. But we solved this game
So why do they end up shooting at the same time? We can reason why this must be the case. If one person chose to fire earlier than another,
As the equations show above, the right time to shoot is just when your chance of hitting equals
Sign up now! * IT'S FREE * > You can join Stanford's AI class online, worldwide, this fall ! < Read more: >AI Class info< .
... force the players to have to improvise and think up strategy and tactics from the start. This is antithetical to our quest. We want to 'teach' strategy & tactics to new gamers. And educate them in ways of constructing strategy & tactics from basic elements.Your idea has them being adapt at this task to begin with.
Next, we need to design algorithms to play each of these games. After which we will see what these algorithms have in common, and if it is possible to group certain games with others based upon the
Bayesian Tracking
You have designed a MARS ROVER. (good job) It has a sensor that can detect the density of some rock. Unfortunately the sensor is noisy. The number returned by the sensor is: x = 3∙d + N(3, 100), where
Here are rough numerical approximations to the sensor model in tabular form. ......................................Sensor Output............................................
(a) Derive Bayes’ rule for two probabilities (starting with a Venn diagram).
(b) Which type of Bayes’ filter is most appropriate for this problem: a Kalman
questions about, don’t assume it is the best for the question above simply because the following questions use it): (c) What is your state representation for your table based filter? (d) What is your initial state assuming you have no idea what sort of rock you
(e) What is the your new state? (f) At this point, what is your best estimate as to what density of rock you are
(g) What is your new state? (h) At this point, what is your best estimate as to what density of rock you are sensing? Spoiler:
[ you have 10 minutes for this problem ]
You are in a boat exactly at the center of a perfectly circular lake (let's call its width, or radius, 'r'.) On the shore, Erik Mona waits and wants to take you hostage. You can run faster than Erik Mona, if you make it to shore. But Erik Mona can run 4 times as fast as you can row. Erik Mona cannot swim and doesn’t have a boat. Can you escape the clutches of Erik Mona??
Many great Lisp compilers are available, but one in particular is easiest to get started with: >CLISP< , an open source Common Lisp. CLISP is simple to install and runs on any operating system. ---------- There is also > Gnu Common Lisp for Microsoft Windows < Grab the executable: gcl.exe This program is very easy to use. ---------- Some fun books: Paradigms of Artificial Intelligence Programming: Case Studies in Common Lisp Land of Lisp: Learn to Program in Lisp, One Game at a Time! ----------
There are these things generically called "Planners". They allow your computer to, well, make plans, out think you while playing chess, and crush your forces on the battle field (ok maybe not this last one yet.) If you know what I'm talking about then you can ignore this.
---------- Sweet Overview: Automated planning and scheduling is a branch of artificial intelligence that concerns the realization of strategies or action sequences, typically for execution by intelligent agents, autonomous robots and unmanned vehicles. Unlike classical control and classification problems, the solutions are complex and must be discovered and optimized in >multidimensional space<. In known environments with available models, planning can be done offline. >Solutions< can be found and evaluated prior to execution. In dynamically unknown environments, the strategy often needs to be revised online. Models and policies must be adapted. Solutions usually resort to iterative trial and error processes commonly seen in artificial intelligence. These include >dynamic programming<, >reinforcement learning< and >combinatorial optimization<.
I found this new site: http://www.tutor2u.net/quiz/economics/default.asp I took quiz #1 and got 9/10. I missed #9. O.o
A pod of economics-types got together and made this 20 question quiz. They had a bunch of MBA grad students take it to "calibrate" it. They seem to believe that if you score: 16 or higher, then you are "Economically Literate". less than 16, and they request you get in contact with them personally, because they have some land for sale in Florida, and a few bridges in New York. They promise to let you pay very reasonable prices.. ======================================================== 1. If the government levied a tax of $1 on every pair of shoes sold, which of the following would most likely result? A. Suppliers would sell more and charge a higher price.
Answer: Spoiler:
B. ---------- 2. If the available supply of a product increases at the same time the demand for it falls, in the absence of counteracting forces its price will: A. Rise
Answer: Spoiler:
B. ---------- 3. The long lines of consumers waiting outside many stores in Cuba tell us that many consumer goods there are probably: A. Not in demand
Answer Spoiler:
B. ---------- 4. In a market econommy, what determines how many workers and machines are employed in one industry vs. another? A. Social custom
Answer Spoiler:
C. ---------- 5. The price system in a market economy reacts to a shortage of a product by: A. Raising its price and producers' profits
Answer Spoiler:
A. ---------- 6. Which of the following tends to reduce consumer spending? A. A decrease in consumer incomes
Answer Spoiler:
A. ---------- 7. At full employment, to slow down price increases during the next year of so, the government should: A. Raise taxes
Answer Spoiler:
A. ---------- 8. Changes in workers' real wages (the purchasing power of their money wages) are calculated by comparing changes in money wages with changes in the: A. Cost of living
Answer Spoiler:
A. ---------- 9. If the amount of money circulating in the United States is rapidly increased at a time when there is full employment, what would be most likely to happen: A. The prices of many goods and services would rise
Answer Spoiler:
A. ---------- 10. Over the long run, what would be the best way of increasing the amount of goods and services the nation can produce? A. Pass laws to prevent workers from going on strike
Answer Spoiler:
C. ---------- 11. Economists often disagree in their suggested solutions to social problems. The disagreements arise largely because: A. Economics is not a science
Answer Spoiler:
D. ---------- 12. "Everyone knows that baseball is far less necessary than food and steel, yet ballplayers are paid a lot more than farmers and steelworkers." Why? A. Ballplayers are really entertainers, rather than producers
Answer Spoiler:
D. ---------- 13. All of the following contribute to high levels of productivity except: A. The skill and work habits of labor
Answer Spoiler:
D. ---------- 14. To analyze the efficiency of a corporation's operation, its profits should be viewed in relationship to: A. Sales and revenue
Answer Spoiler:
D. ---------- 15. In a basically private-enterprise economy, which tax is most likely to alter consumer choice among alternative products? A. A general sales tax
Answer Spoiler:
D. ---------- 16. If a high tariff were placed on automobiles shipped into the United States: A. Foreigners would buy fewer goods from the United States
Answer Spoiler:
A. ---------- 17. Specialized production and trade within a nation or between nations will have which of the following effects? A. Economic instability will be reduced
Answer Spoiler:
B. ---------- 18. Government policies can be used to increase economic efficiency by: A. Providing national defense
Answer Spoiler:
D. ---------- 19. A market economy may be operating efficiently when: A. Some product prices are falling drastically
Answer Spoiler:
C. ---------- 20. Large federal-budget deficits: A. Increase U.S. exports
Answer Spoiler:
C. ========================================================
“Mathematics of Terror” by Andrew Curry, Discover Magazine, July/August 2010 In 2001, based on examination of 20,000 incidents from 25 years of FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Columbia) attacks, researchers found that the number of attacks (frequency y) associated with the numbers of fatalities per attack (attack size x) were not distributed normally, but rather according to a decreasing power law curve. In 2005 they then examined Iraq casualty data and found an almost identical curve as that for Columbia. Curry concludes that awareness of this distribution may help in strategic planning for a nation’s defense. See also “The Mathematics of War” for more details about this research. Do you agree with the Discover author that "you never get such extremes” in a normal distribution?
Some math is easier because it is more visual. Geometry falls into this category. Since, we can actually touch blocks, and draw triangles "geometrical reasoning" seems more natural. And quite frankly, in human history geometry was the launch-pad for the development of all math (think Euclid's Elements.) Mathematics such as trig and calculus are not as visually oriented, and rely on analytical reasoning SKILLS supported by your MEMORY of all the definitions. Visualizing geometry is built into our brains, but calculus skill has to be learned through training. Skills takes practice and repetition to strengthen. For a lot of people, all this practice is boring, and interest easily wains. (An analogy is exercise, doing push ups and sit ups is boring, makes you sweaty, and hurts. But long term practice makes you sexy and strong!) Anyways, long term mastery of calculus and trig (for example) requires regular practice to build your skill and memory. The result is powerful decision making ability that can be used to out-think other people, and take their gold; Or program computers, or design an investment portfolio, etc. Gold is sexy and strong. So make sure your kids practice (finish) all their homework -- make it a fun game. Use flash cards to assist memorizing all the math definitions, and draw lots of pictures to assist their minds in visualization. What would one hypothetically steer a kid with a "mind for geometry" towards? The study of Mathematics. Including Art, History, and Military Science.
1. Cross multiplication is a "technique" to solve equations. This term gets used sloppily to mean other things, especially in finding common denominators. But, cross multiplication is used to solve an equation when you have exactly two terms on either side of the equal sign, and in one of the terms is the variable you want to solve for.2/x = 7/9 Cross Multiplying yields: 7x = 18 => x= 18/7. 2.
Math is used to make decisions by powering up your reasoning skills. You want to be good at math, so you can out-think other people, and take their gold.
I KNEW IT!!!!!! Even though I hate wotc, and want to agree with Mama Loufing's fine argument, I have to ask you to try the following experiment. There is a reason, but it may not be what you think: "the Partial Product method can be performed mentally faster than the "Old Method." Here is an experiment you can do to impress your friends: The SET UP:
2. Re-remember how to do multiplication the "old way". Do 100 practice problems to get very well practiced at it. 3. Randomly generate 60 new multiplication questions. Give both numbers being multiplied 1-3 digits. Split them into two groups of 30. The EXPERIMENT:
2. First, a little organization. For the first group of 30 you will us the "old method", and for the second group of 30 you will use the partial product method. Get a stop watch, or find a webpage with a timer on it you can trigger by pressing a mouse button. 3. Group 1 - "Old Method". Do each problem in your mind only, one at a time until you arrive at the correct answer. Time and record in seconds how long it takes for each individual problem. You should end up with 30 trials. 4. Group 2 - Partial Product Method. Do each problem in your mind only, one at a time until you arrive at the correct answer. Time and record in seconds how long it takes for each individual problem. You should end up with 30 trials. The ANALYSIS:
2. Perform an alpha = 0.05 Hypothesis test that the Partial Product method can be performed mentally faster than the "Old Method". . 3. ( ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS ) If you can not do a hypothesis test, then just post the Mean and Variance of you data groups here. Then, I will do it for you. . The CONCLUSION:
“Books are one of our greatest resources. But many times in history books have been written which are misleading or untrue. In some cases this has led to wide scale death and destruction and evil governmental regimes. This is a list of ten of the worst books of this type – books that have done more harm than good. The common thread in all of these books is deception – invariably not intentional, but the consequences are the same regardless.” Top 10 Worst Books: 10. Malleus Maleficarum
This is a list of ten of the worst books that have done more harm than good. The common thread in all of these books is deception – invariably not intentional, but the consequences are the same regardless. 10
Malleus On the list because: It inflamed witch hunts across Europe Malleus Maleficarum (The Hammer of Witchraft) was a manual for witch hunters and judges to catch witches and stamp them out. It came out just prior to the protestant reformation and it was one of the most popular books amongst the reformers who were wanting to smash “evil” out of their countries. Between 1487 and 1520, twenty editions of the Malleus were published, and another sixteen editions were published between 1574 to 1669. This book single-handedly launched centuries of witch hunts. 9
On the list because: it turned out to be a creation of her own sexual confusions and aspirations Margaret Mead was an American cultural anthropologist who traveled to Samoa to answer the questions on sexuality posed in America in the 1920s (particularly with reference to women). Unfortunately for Mead, the youths she interviewed in Samoa told her wild tales of sexual promiscuity and Mead reported it all as fact. One of the girls later said: “She must have taken it seriously, but I was only joking. As you know, Samoan girls are terrific liars when it comes to joking. But Margaret accepted our trumped up stories as though they were true.” If challenged by Mead, the girls would not have hesitated to tell the truth, but Mead never questioned their stories. According to Wikipedia: “The use of cross-cultural comparison to highlight issues within Western society was highly influential, and contributed greatly to the heightened awareness of Anthropology and Ethnographic study in the USA.” Interestingly, Mead was a highly regarded academic and had a large part in the formulation of the 1979 American Book of Common Prayer (Church of England). 8
On the list because: it was the inspiration for a long list of tyrannies (Stalin had it on his nightstand) The Prince is a treatise meant for rulers who had shed all scruples – to a point that they might see evil as potentially more beneficial to society than good. Machiavelli hoped to start a revolution in the hearts of his readers, and he certainly achieved that. He proudly stated things that others before him had only dared to whisper, and he whispered things that had not even been considered. According to Machiavelli “it is not necessary for a prince to have all the above-mentioned qualities [merciful, faithful, humane, honest, and religious], but it is indeed necessary to appear to have them. Nay, I dare say this, that by having them and always observing them, they are harmful; and by appearing to have them they are useful.” Some of the people inspired by this book are Stalin, Hitler, Mussolini, and Napoleon I of France. 7
On the list because: it helped spread Hitler’s genocidal anti-Semitism In Mein Kampf, Hitler outlined his racist plan for a new Germany which included mass murder of Jews, and a war against France and Russia to make living space for Germans. At the time of publication the book was largely ignored, but once Hitler rose to power that changed. It is believed that over 10 million copies were in circulation in 1945. The book is largely influenced by The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind by Gustave Le Bon (1895) which suggested propaganda as a means to controlling the irrational behavior of crowds. In addition, Hitler drew on the fabricated Protocols of the Elders of Zion to give support for the need for his anti-semitic plans. Hitler speaks of “The Jewish Peril” which he believed was a conspiracy by Jews to take over the world. The book outlines the racial worldview in which people are classified by race as superior or inferior. In 2003 the sequel to Mein Kampf, Zweites Buch, was published in English for the first time. Zweites Buch (Second Book) expands on the original ideas of Mein Kampf and outlines further plans for a war with the United States and the British Empire for entire world domination by Germany. 6
On the list because: it preaches eugenics Margaret Sanger is the mother of modern contraception and the founder of Planned Parenthood. In her 1922 book, The Pivot of Civilization, she outlined her theories of eugenics (control of the human race by selective breeding) and racial purity (3 years before Hitler did the same in Mein Kampf). The basis of her support of contraception was entirely due to her belief that inferior humans should be killed to enable a superior race to appear over time. Sanger did not just entertain popular ideas of her time – she was the champion of the cause. In her book she says: “the most urgent problem of to-day is how to limit and discourage the over-fertility of the mentally and physically defective.” She goes on to say: “possibly drastic and Spartan methods may be forced upon American society if it continues complacently to encourage the chance and chaotic breeding that has resulted from our stupid, cruel sentimentalism.” Birth control was, in her mind, “the greatest and most truly eugenic method.” Needless to say, Planned Parenthood today have tried very hard to distance themselves from their founder. 5
On the list because: it convinced the world that education is not about facts In Democracy and Education, Dewey disparages schooling that focuses on traditional character development and endowing children with hard knowledge, and encourages the teaching of thinking “skills” instead. His views have had great influence on the direction of American education–particularly in public schools. This book could be considered to be the anti-classical education manifesto. And the consequence? A generation of youths with an inferior education which lacks a founding in solid facts and knowledge. Dewey was one of the three founders of the philosophical school of Pragmatism – a school of thought which proposes that “truth” is made and can change. The current curriculum in New Zealand is one which would please Dewey immensely as it is largely founded on his principles. 4
On the list because: it caused deaths through bad advice Regardless of whether you agree with the methodology of Spock, no one can deny that many children probably died of cot death as a result of his advice to put babies to sleep on their stomachs. This advice was extremely influential on health-care providers, with nearly unanimous support through to the 1990s. Spock believed that babies on their back can choke on their own vomit – leading to death. Scientists eventually found that Spock’s advice actually lead to more deaths by suffocation. Estimates of the number of deaths caused by this bad advice are as many as 50,000. Spock also advocated a method of child raring that moved away from discipline based methods. Previously, experts had told parents that babies needed to learn to sleep on a regular schedule, and that picking them up and holding them whenever they cried would only teach them to cry more and not to sleep through the night. Spock taught the exact opposite. 3
Protocols On the list because: it was a propaganda book designed to incite racial hatred The Protocols of the Elders of Zion is a booklet that purports to describe a plot by world Jewry and Masonry to take over the world. Despite the fact that the booklet is a hoax, it was spread wide and far and believed by most Europeans to be true. Many people today still consider it be factual. It was instrumental to Hitler’s anti-Jewish efforts in Germany and it was used after the Russian Revolution to perpetrate hatred and violence against Jews. The booklet continues to be published and disseminated in many Middle Eastern states which are political enemies of Israel. 2
On the list because: it could win the award for the most malicious book ever written This book has inspired some of the most brutal regimes in man’s history. Regardless of whether there has been a state which is a true Marxist state, this book has inspired so many evil actions that it can not be left off a list of this nature. Some of the principles found in the manifesto are the abolition of private ownership of land, confiscation of property of emigrants, heavy taxes, and the abolition of inheritance. 1
On the list because: It fuels fundamentalist attacks on Science By arguing against aspects of Darwin’s theories, this book has given fuel to the fundamentalists who argue that a literal interpretation of the Book of Genesis is the only possible manner in which the earth was created. Despite much refutation from the Scientific community, many fundamentalists still use this as a “source” for proof that evolution is not true. The book itself was not peer reviewed as Behe claimed under oath, and the Science community has overwhelming rejected it. It should be noted that Behe himself is not a fundamentalist and does not believe in a literal interpretation of the Bible.
I think it will be too cold for even mushrooms. What would the sheds do? There will be limited or no sunlight, and there won't be any power; unless you have access to a nuclear power plant that didn't get destroyed. (I wonder how long gasoline would still be around; my guess is only months.) One could use a water wheel and an electric generator, or a steam-powered generator. But the action of such devices would attract other survivors who would come and try to take your delicious mushrooms.
Hey, there is Nuclear Winter stuff on youtube. We should make some community videos too:
Recently, I have been pondering the end of all human life due to a Nuclear Winter. This Nuclear Winter would be created by an exchange of nuclear gifts between our world’s most advanced technological countries. Perhaps we can call this gift exchange World War III. Anyways, after the burning of cities, dust particles get into the atmosphere and block out all sunlight. Soon afterwards, agriculture fails all over the world, and then in the mass starvation which follows the eating of other people becomes chic. On the bright side, bright like a nuclear flash, maybe some mutants will be able to make snow angels in the fallout. - And I have to wonder, have the affects of undead armies been programmed into the >computer simulations< done by our government scientists. - Carl Sagan always makes me feel warm and happy as he speaks about the end of human kind. >Video< - >Nuclear Winter< interview with Carl Sagan.
Here is the list of games we have compiled so far in order of appearance. Risk
The next task will be to define strategy. Then, we can take each game and examine which strategy or strategies it best represents. So, what is strategy? 1. What are the basic building blocks of a strategy?
…but the angle can change and I think that makes a big difference. The only restriction I understand is that Y>y. X can be anywhere between X-1000 and X+1000 and change from turn to turn. Sure, the Devil could set the trap at some point above Y, but the angel could veer around it at any point. You're right on it. Exactly. But if the devil starts eating far enough out, he will always trap the Angel; there will be no place for the angel to veer around.
I still do not think I am fully understanding, because if the Angel increases his x coordinate as well, it seems your theory falls apart.Does that assume the angel continues towards the 'cone'? Y has to change such that Y>y. (For each move the new y coordinate has to be greater than the old y coordinate.) X can remain the same, or x can change: if x remains the same he moves straight "up"; if x changes, then he moves off at an "angle", but still "upward". So the angel is confined to a cone-shape area. If the angel zig-zags back and forth, he is 'inside' the cone-shape area, and even if he always makes the maximum x increase in one direction only he is still 'inside' the cone-shape area (riding along one of the edges). This is just an example of one strategy the Angel can use, and is called The Fool's Angel. Because the devil can always catch a fool.
Are we talking board games or electronic or both? I'm thinking about anything that can be given the label 'Game'. So both types work. However, I'm more interested in the elementary games. One could argue that a war simulation video game teaches strategy, but to play this type of game a person usually already knows basic strategy learned from other elementary games. An obvious example of an elementary game being Tic-Tac-Toe.
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