gustavo iglesias wrote:You are correct if the math manages to include all relevant variables. It rarely will.Weslocke wrote:
Actual play is what really matters.
Not sterile numbers on a whiteboard.
That's what people told to Keppler too. It's what often people who isn't good at maths think. Un the end, math trump opinions. The deadly sneak talent is mathemathically weak, regardless of your opinion and your 'feel', just like earth's orbit is elliptic, regardless of the opinion of Keppler's contemporary scientific mates and their feels. Reality doesn't change to make your opinion right
Your stunning fist annecdote is a good example of cognitive bias, actually
That was my whole point in my giant wall of text about heuristics. We all simplify the math model in our minds to make it easier to take a decision.
The math, however, always is right. We might be unaware of which one is better, because we don't take in account enough variables in our heuristic approach. But one of those two feats IS mathemathically superior.
Same thing that with God's existance: a believer and an unbeliever aren't sure which one is right, they can't prove it. But one of them is wrong. If God exists, the unbeliever is wrong, if God doesn't exist, the believer is wrong.