|1 person marked this as a favorite.|
The best thought experiment along those lines is the "it's too unlikely"-killer argument.
Lots of people, usually ones in various sects, try claiming that it is statistically too unlikely that the Earth developed life, so there has to be a creator. Some try to make some sort of calculation about it, such as so and so many cubic kilometers of ocean, so and so many millennia, and so and so improbable to develop a certain amino acid, means there is not enough ocean x time for that to happen.
One simple question answers this perfectly: "And the places where life did not develop, what do the people there think about this probability?"
Only where life developed can anyone think these things. It is like saying a marathon winner among thousands of starters that his victory was so unlikely it didn't happen. Or that a lottery winner's win was too unlikely to happen.
You can only really talk about FUTURE probabilities. Once they have happened, they are DIFFERENT. Take a d20, roll it a thousand times. But before you start, what is the probability to roll 20 every roll? The exact same as every other combination of results, of course. Now make the rolls. Note down the sequence you got. Probably not all 20s... But hey, you got a specific sequence... And all such sequences were equally probable... So, your probability to get the one you got was (1/20)^1000. And because it is now in the past, it is now 1.
Please don't judge the likelihood of stuff that has already happened, and especially don't try to prove God by doing so.