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Vendle wrote:
There is a bit more, some of which I touched on in my previous post. To wit: 1. There are obviously effects of humans on the environment. There is a big "D'UH" for that.
And indeed, I keep that last estimation in mind as well.
Charles Evans 25 wrote:
significant =/= statistically significant =/= proof of anthropogenic influence Or, more universally: correlation =/= causation And to focus on why I dissent with the prescription: How do you know that the change in ice cover was caused by increased CO2 emissions, and not increased runoff of industrialization in arctic waters, or some other effect? Or, more generally: It is undeniable that there are changes caused by people. Clearing forests for fields, dredging a harbor, putting up a building, all clearly, and without any dispute, cause a local change.
We know, with a very strong general consensus, that New Orleans is destroying the Mississippi Delta, and that the only way to restore it is to give up on rebuilding New Orleans the way it is. We must let the river choose its own course, as it did for centuries before the city was built, and which we can actually prove, even if it means leaving the city high and dry as a result.
We know, with a very strong general consensus, that the St. Lawrence Seaway is destroying the Great Lakes ecosystem by allowed stowaway species to invade the lakes. Despite all the attempts to cleanse the lakes, the only way to really be sure is to close the canals forever.
Then consider:
The Chinese dam projects have already results in the extinction of Chinese river dolphins, they are degrading the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers beyond that, and the artificial lakes caused may well be the primary cause of the increased earthquakes in China.
So let us assume the hypothesis of climate change.
Or, leaving the hypotheses as hypotheses, is there really no room to treat the preliminary predictions of catastrophic or just merely detrimental anthropogenic climate change as just another variant Malthusian prediction, and not leap to radical economic transfer and implosion, but perhaps give other scientific fields and general social progress a bit of time to resolve pending issues as they develop? brock wrote:
On 1, the rest following naturally. I do not believe the upward trend is statistically significant based on all of the available factors, and certain flaws revealed in the data gathering methods.
pres man wrote: Na-uh! You got pwned. See you said that you'd do something else but not be a pirate. Well if there was any other options, then why is it that every single Somali is a pirate? If there was any other options then some Somalis would choose them even if they were stupid choices, because some people are dumb. Since all Somalis are pirates that proves there are no other choices. So there you big dumb head, take that! Yeah, imagine that, not all Somalis are pirates. I mean, imagine that a Somali government rep would be on CNN asking for the arms embargo to be lifted so the Somali government can defeat all the Islamist rebels and pirates. Odd he chose that to focus on rather than just asking for money for schools, or environmental clean up, or foreign ships to secure fishing grounds.What could I have been thinking! brock wrote:
Now THAT is a rational, scientifically "compliant" statement, with an appended social recommendation. While I dissent, I acknowledge the presentation.Kirth Gersen wrote: Sam, use ad hominem attacks? Never! (That's sarcastic, by the way. I like Sam, but he does tend to go a bit overboard when it comes to accusing people who disagree with him of being stupid, deluded, or flat-out liars). As opposed to the number of people who call me stupid, deluded, or a flat-out liar? If you do not like such rhetoric, do not employ it.The 8th Dwarf wrote:
I am not the one who runs around demanding other people shut up because they do not agree with me. That makes crushing critical thought a defining element of your agenda.Your inability to frame rational rebuttals merely demonstrates the bankruptcy of the ideas you attempt to assert. Zombieneighbours wrote:
And that is what is "universally accepted" as "complete and utter nonsense". He acknowledges using the term improperly, but then you both attempt to blame me for his deliberate misrepresentation for ideological purposes. At no point and in no way did I insist on, request, or demand univeral agreement.
The hypothesis of prions contradicted the "central dogma of molecular biology" for years.
Note the difference. Zombieneighbours wrote: Samual is wrong when he claims that we would have to create an entire globe and run the experiements on it. We don't have to. We can run repeatable experiments on individual elements and do the maths. And the value when claiming a global effect remains highly questionable. The same issues came up when nuclear winter was all the rage. Then it started coming out that the models assumed things like the entire earth was covered with super-combustible and soot producing forests, or the models used only slim sections of atmosphere directly over cities, and all the other little factors that have led to that particular bit of fearmongering being dumped in the waste bin.As for repeating experiments, we are talking about trends asserted as developing only over the last 30 years, and including factors such as sunspots and increasing industrialization of countries like China. You cannot run an experiment without controls, and there is no way you can control on a global scale for such things. That means all you have for such projections are computer models, and a hope that you have accounted for everything in the last run. Aubrey the Malformed wrote: And this differs from you.... how? Because I make no pretense to scientific supremacy. Aubrey the Malformed wrote: Incidentally, there have been no "experiments" of a repeatable nature that back up natural selection as a hypothesis, since species formation tends not to happen too much while people are watching. But the evidence (and consensus) points in its general direction, both in terms of observations arising from other disciplines such as genetics and palaeontology. Of course, lots of the religious nay-sayers take that as evidence that it isn't true, but they simply don't understand how science actually works. Aubrey the Malformed wrote: Fair enough - just goes to show the ignorance of creationists. I last looked at this about 20 years ago at school, so I'm obviouly out of date. How does it show their ignorance when it was you who were incorrect and out of date? A demonstration of how this differs from me. Zombieneighbours wrote:
Except that is not the point I was making. And that is why you failed to rebut it.Zombieneighbours wrote: Firstly, straw man argument. I have never made a claim of universality. Just a staggering majority, though not as staggering at the consensus with regards to evolution. Firstly, strawman rebuttal. The statement I was rebutting was a claim of universality.Since you do not support that, your attempted refutation of me is obviously misplaced. Zombieneighbours wrote: It is the fact that scientific theory is able to change and adapt that makes it worthwhile. Having come to understand that the Net out come of green house gases may be something other simple warming is itself evidence that the consensus is being shifted. Yes, but that further ignores that the statement I was rebutting asserted that it was "not amenable" to being challenged. Again, if you accept that such is not scientific, your challenge of my response is misplaced.Zombieneighbours wrote: Also, the introduction of Anthropogenic into the name is a sign of how far the consensus has moved toward human influence being a major factor. If it were "anthropogenic global warming", you would have a point. "Anthropogenic climate change" must, of a necessity, include anthropogenic global cooling.Without that being included and accounted for, the name change becomes highly suspect. houstonderek wrote:
I think the two key factors are the blockade and persisting in moronic charges. Germany was going to lose because of the blockade. A comparison to WW II is not precisely accurate as the Germans in WW I simply were not up to withstanding that degree of privation because of a loss of food imports. They would not have lost militarily, they would have lost politically.Conversely, if the allies, particularly the French who already had to suppress one mutiny, had persisted in those frontal assaults, it is possible the French could have slaughtered themselves into submission before the British dumped Haig and salvaged enough of their army to starve the Germans into submission. "Obviously" (that is, "subjectively analyzing it 90 years later"), the British Empire could not have sustained the war alone in France, particularly not with the Italians slaughtering themselves into submission at the same time, and the south Balkan front going nowhere fast. Of course in some ways such an analysis thoroughly undervalues the importance of American non-neutrality before then. Not just escorting convoys, but also putting pressure on Germany to restrict submarine warfare for so long, contributed significantly to the staying power of the U.K. up to that point, allowing them to be in France and prevent an outright German victory during the French mutinies.
cappadocius wrote: One, Liberty University is accredited. Two, do these people have degrees in anything remotely resembling a subject that could be applied to anthropogenic climate change? You seem confused. Just because a quorom, or even all, scientists in a particular field agree on a particular hypothesis or theory, it in no way constitutes part of the proof of the hypothesis or places the theory above being questioned.That is what is being asserted for "anthropogenic climate change", and by your standard that makes it junk science. cappadocius wrote: However, you can look at records of . . . No, you demanded reproducible experiments. Until you produce additional earths to test these theories, or retract that requirement, looking at records is insufficient to meet your requested requirement.Now you are pulling a bait and switch to try and secure a double standard of proof. That parallels with the demands made by the supporters of ID are . . . striking. cappadocius wrote: The overwhelming weight of evidence is in favor of anthropogenic climate change and against intelligent design. Denial of both of these facts is denying that the Titanic is sinking as the icy water laps around one's ankles. The weight of evidence was supposed to be overwhelming in favor of global warming, but now it has been downgraded to anthropogenic climate change. One might reasonably begin to be more than a bit skeptical of continuing claims to "absolute" anything from the scientists making such claims.cappadocius wrote: That's how science works. Evidence is discovered, experiments are conducted, terms are revised for accuracy. It does not work by going "nuh unh" How exactly do you conduct an experiment when you cannot have any controls or multiple tests? cappadocius wrote: Global Warming is still a thing, as average global temperatures are increasing; however, by referring ONLY to "global warming" in these discussion, it ignores the larger and potentially more dangerous effect. Then why did scientists ignore those larger and potentially more dangerous effects for so long by just harping on global warming? cappadocius wrote: Folks who aren't well-versed in climate science can dismiss the whole effect with a simple "It was super cold this winter, and so global warming is a myth." - the entire concept anthropogenic climate change encompasses global warming, but also explains why there're more hurricanes now than ever before, the acidification of the oceans, and possibly the fungal plagues causing both amphibian and bee populations worldwide to plummet. More hurricanes that ever before? Do please produce your evidence for the number of hurricans in 1420. In 1066. In 476. In 88 B.C. In 340,738 B.C.When you can possibly produce such with absolute accuracy and certainty then you will have a reasonable claim. Until then you are working exclusively on projections, and the data is not universally accepted by all climatologists, despite assertions otherwise. cappadocius wrote: It is the best explanation for the evidence we've got, and rather than stomping their feet and saying "No way!", I'd like to see those folks who dissent do some research to prove all that mountain of evidence on the other side is wrong. As a matter of fact, there are some folks who are doing research and they've got some interesting preliminary findings on the subject. But in no way has anyone "slam dunked" the case against it. No, it is the best explanation that you like. But please, do tell, just how much research you have done on the subject to be able to assert this so conclusively. Are you in fact a climatologist that has been studying this for 30 years? Have you examined all of the opposing research, and performed tests to refute it all? Or are you just relying on reports and assertions by others, and demanding everyone accept the same conclusions you have accepted?pres man wrote: Let's not forget that before the US entered WWII, we were in the great depression. Without an absolute self need, it may have been to much to expect the US to risk the lives of its youngest and healthest workers for another country, even our allies. Also if we were so impartial, why did the Japanese feel like they had to attack us? Why go slap the hornet's nest? Mostly a three step progression: 1. U.S. sanctions over the invasion of China led to;2. A fear of U.S. intervention over a full annexation of the Netherlands East Indies, and resulting war with the U.K. because of their treaty obligations and strategic needs, meaning a need to; 3. Neutralize the Phillipines so it could not be used as a base. Had the U.S. never imposed sanctions, or not controlled the Phillipines (giving it independence or selling it to Japan or never annexing it from Spain in the first place), it is quite conceivable the Japanese would have ignored the U.S. when they moved on the N.E.I. and U.K. Dragnmoon wrote:
Upstate is howling wildnerness. It obviously causes warped perceptions to confuse NYC with the toxic wastes of Jersey.Zombieneighbours wrote: Cappadocius, you have just become my personal hero. *hugs* Because he failed to refute a criticque of an improper statement you made? Zombieneighbours wrote: Let me rephrase my point. A meta-studies of all available research have shown a consistant consensus for more than 30 years. That is quite different from "universally". It also fails to account for the consistent revisions of that consensus to the point that it is now "anthropogenic climate change" as opposed to "global warming".cappadocius wrote:
There are very much people with degrees from accredited universities who declare they have a specialization in intelligent design, whether you are aware of them or approve their claims or not. As for reproducible results, I am not aware of any control earths that have been used to prove anthropogenic climate change over a hundred year span. Do they have unicorns? Zombieneighbours wrote: It is a demonstratable concensus amongst the scientists with a specialisation in climate science. Which remains something other than the definition of "universal". Which does not constitute a refutation of its pre-emptive denial of being disproven.Compare and contrast:
cappadocius wrote:
Well technically, since people do dispute it, it is not in fact universally accepted. And taking as a given that a hypothesis can be "amenable", that demonstrates a pre-emptive decision to reject any dissent, no matter the evidence presented.Wicht wrote:
The problem is global warming, excuse me, "human caused climate change" advocates have made it clear that the answer to that question is "Until we come up with another alarmist theory to justify dismantling the Western economic machine and empowering the Third World in pursuit of our political agendas." One year of lesser temperature increase or ten years of temperature decrease, they have pre-emptively declared it a "variation" in a field that is "not yet fully explained".Nicolas Logue wrote: There is also no excuse for cheering the death of a human being forced into a situation where they believe they have no other choice than the use of violence. Being forced? Someone held a gun to their head, and ordered them to do it under pain of death? Or threatened their families in the same way?Nicolas Logue wrote:
And you see no contradiction in that? There is no excuse but they were forced.Twisting words to seem righteous indeed. pres man wrote:
"Seafarers from the Philippines account for 105 of the prisoners, not surprising for a poor Southeast Asian country that supplies about 30 percent of the world's 1.2 million merchant sailors." So poor Somalis become pirates, but poor Filipinos become merchant sailors. "Despite the risk, men like Adler will keep crewing ships, even to danger zones, because the pay is good. And some know no other work." As contrasted to Somali pirates who will "heroically" continue to engage in piracy because the pay is good. ""You put a piece of fish or meat on the end and that was it, kind of like Robinson Crusoe," Adler said with a laugh. "Those waters are very rich in fish, and in about two weeks of fishing we caught more than 200 kilograms (440 pounds) of fish."" Those horribly overfished and poisoned waters. CourtFool wrote:
Exactly. Or: I am waiting for you to stop beating yours and set a proper example for me to follow. Nicolas Logue wrote:
Or pehaps I assume that you want to be confrontational. Starting with descriptions like "flaccid" certainly suggests that. Nicolas Logue wrote:
Talk about a flaccid response! You do not know, but I cannot confidently assert I would do otherwise?Well, since you want to frame the discussion on that level . . . Nicolas Logue wrote:
No Nick, with a reply like that your point is to harangue anyone who does not leap to join you in expressing the same degree of sympathy as you embrace. If you feel incapable of making a moral judgement because you feel you cannot make a moral decision over a situation you are not actually expreiencing, that is you. Some of us do not feel so limited, and are capable of going beyond and recognizing that morality is not subject to redefition by exigency, but something that must be more than that for the concept of law to have any meaning. If all it takes is an appeal to inconvenience, however great or minor, then there is no way a society can create any structure to recognize any rights, and so make any transgression of them a crime. With such a construct there can be no property rights."I have less than you. Therefore I make take from you and you may not judge me because you do have more than me." No. I reject that, as does every basic code of morality and law we have to draw upon to define our culture. You are not doing anything to empower people by excusing any action on the basis of being lacking, but instead casually condemning them by the "soft bigotry of low expectations". Nicolas Logue wrote: Oh, and, btw: Pretend-Patriot is my term for ANYONE who thinks we should stop challenging ourselves and our country. The thing that makes America great is its capacity for change. The forefathers included an Elastic Clause in our Constitution and appointed a Supreme Court to interpret it through the ages, just to ensure that we engage in a constant revolution - not of guns, but of ideas and the potential of humanity. I for one, as a patriot, and a true American, have every intention of living up to their example and doing my best to ensure that America isn't a dead idea or a moldy piece of parchment, but a thriving beacon - one that has light the world for hundreds of years and will only continue to do so if we fan the flames of freedom, compassion, humanity and justice. Such a revolution does not include an abdication of the essential rights of person and property that you are casually throwing away with your excessive sympathy for the pirates. When you abdicate passing judgement on them you surrender the guarantees of protection of property in the Constitution. There is no freedom without security, no justice without judgement.Without those compassion and humanity are mere buzzwords, full of sound and fury and signifying less than nothing. Nicolas Logue wrote: I'm willing to sacrifice my complacency and creature-comforts to do it if needs be. I'm willing to always question our policies and our actions in the world - not to be a critic of this great nation for criticism's sake, but rather to ensure America never falls short of the ideals set out before us. For starting by accusing me of "Nice rhetoric" you certainly rely on such yourself. Questioning entails no surrender of creature-comforts, nor does criticism. If you truly intended to surrender that and your complacency you would be in Somalia, working to rebuild the country, and show the pirates a better way. Of course you might be killed for not following sharia, or just for not being a Somali, but that might be a bit too much commitment for the cause, eh?Nicolas Logue wrote: Anyone who cheers the death of a few 17 year old, uneducated, half-starved, desperate pirates is not bolstering up the legacy of Jefferson, Adams, Lincoln, FDR, and all the named and nameless great men and women who bled for the freedoms and ideals we maintain, but rather dropping it in the mud - and that my friend, I blithely label "pretend-patriotism." And anyone who excuses people who take a father hostage, threaten him with death over several days, and demand a reward at the conclusion, is trampling those legacies in the mud, and throwing them in the cesspit afterwards. And that my friend, I do not blithely label as anything but the disservice to the principles of Western law and democracy that it is.Patrick Curtin wrote: I'll have to check that one out, haven't actually delved into a lot of Adam Smith's writings (I know, but only so many hours in the day). Thanks for the tip Sam. Heh. True. And "translating" late 18th century English to modern English is a chore. Of course you really only need to read the last third or so of The Wealth of Nations, where he sets out his general recommendations, plus do a quick scan of his section blurbs to get the critical points of the rest of it. (Pages on pages of spreadsheets analyzing the changes in the price of corn over several centuries is certainly nice to prove you are not talking out of your nethers, but "tedious" barely begins to describe it.)However, for a rather simple and direct explanation of why to choose being a decent fellow, which to me serves as a truly apt supplement to Nietzsche exhorting us to create a new morality, I thoroughly recommend The Theory of Moral Sentiments. One might also take note of the exchange of responses with the French after Obama recommended the accession of Turkey to the EU.
Can you feel the love and mutual respect?
Andrew Turner wrote: This is what I thought, too, Sam. On a second reading, though, I'm unclear what the city actually said. It seems they (local government) said two separate things. First--there's an issue with the test. Second, they answered a question--yes, the results of the last test would have allowed no promotions of minorities. Am I reading too much in to the article? Between the article and other reports on the matter (I picked this up a few days ago), what the city did is say the results of the test indicate no blacks would be promoted, therefore the test is flawed and all the results will be thrown out. Naturally the city now denies that as part of their response to the lawsuit. They have to, otherwise it would be a default judgement against them.NPC Dave wrote:
So you are asserting that Ethiopia is either or both a terrorist group and that their actions during their mission to aid the Somali government were terrorist acts. While you may, as an individual, certainly assert such a thing, without any similar assertion from any legitimate (that is, a recognized government, a recognized trans-governmental body such as the UN or AU, or an NGO that is not otherwise listed as a terrorist organization), the validity of such an assertion is not merely questionable or highly suspect, but pretty much completely illegitimate.NPC Dave wrote:
Did I miss these in the text? Otherwise I saw links about dumping and fishing, but none about Ethiopia invading as opposed to intervening that cites a legitimate source as noted above. A random excessively biased and partisan blogger certainly does nothing to prove it was an invasion as opposed to an government requested intervention.NPC Dave wrote:
Unfortunately for your case, as I noted above, the accusations of a random partisan blogger do not constitute proof by a long shot. Do you have a citation of a U.N. resolution calling it an invasion?How about an investigation by the ICC? Or even a random indictment from an over-reaching Spanish court? Guilt by blogger rant is a long way from legitimate evidence. NPC Dave wrote: That certainly is a nicer way of putting it. But it is the same thing, only using different words. No, it is not the same thing, any more than murder is manslaughter is self-defense. Words like that have specific meaning, particularly in law and international relations.NPC Dave wrote: Why would the "legitimate" government need assistance? If the "legitimate" government was backed by the people, why would it need a foreign power to come help it? Because sometimes a government has been weakened by other factors to the point that an insurgency may threaten it with destruction, even if the insurgency does not enjoy a popular mandate, and even if the government is unable to muster popular support. NPC Dave wrote: Do I even need to answer these questions? Yes, you do. NPC Dave wrote: In fact, what makes a government "legitimate"? We probably don't share that premise either. Probably not. But stating such a difference, or even the existence of such a difference, equally does not lend legitimacy to your definition by default.NPC Dave wrote:
There is no contradiction there. And apparently you missed the part of that article that makes it clear that Ethiopia did not invade, but intervened at the request of the legitimate government.NPC Dave wrote: A rhetorical question, since that doesn't describe me. You characterized the ICU as a government that was stabilizing Somalia. You characterized the intervention of Ethiopia at the request of the TNG as an invasion.You characterized the invasion as coming when the ICU was stabilizing the government as opposed to when they were merely destabilizing the existing legitimate government. How would you describe those things? NPC Dave wrote: Actually my conclusion is similar, so we do agree on some things, the states in Africa should break up. Although I say don't promote it, leave Africans alone to do it as they see fit. No matter how many people die along the way? Such as when the West copped on intervening during the Rwanda Genocide?Such as how the West continues to cop out during the Darfur Genocide? Such as not doing anything now while Somalia continues to descend into chaos, except to prevent pirates from attacking ships, even if it includes violence? NPC Dave wrote:
Actually, quite a few more people than just Obama advocate "meddling", so you have quite a task promoting a position of non-intervention given what is actually happening. magdalena thiriet wrote:
Which could be valid except . . . The city had no issues with the test until a particular set of results indicatied no personnel of a specific race would not be promoted.
That most of all is what makes the city's decision discriminatory. It was not that they found the test was flawed for everyone, but that they found the test was flawed because it did not return a desired ratio of successful scores based solely on race.
Patrick Curtin wrote: LOL. I originally read Nietzsche just to learn what all the fuss was about and I was pleasantly surprised at his writings. As it happens, me too. :) Patrick Curtin wrote: One of philosopy's greatest shames. While I do not agree with his premises on many things, his writings are very thought-provoking. Indeed. I temper them with Adam Smith's Theory of Moral Sentiments and the principles of government structure laid out in the Federalist, and I think the combination makes a very excellent whole. Patrick Curtin wrote: The fact that he has been forever coopted by the Nazis is just one of the countless crimes that can be laid at that ideology's doorstep. We still suffer from the legacy of that syphillitic failed painter more than seventy years later. And what is worse is that it has to be said. But I expect we could fill up a server with such complaints, so . . .Jeremy Mac Donald wrote:
Somalia was well under way to being stabilized by the Transitional Federal Government when a group of warlords allied with the ICU and began a new round of civil war. Whether all Somali's would back the imposition of their extremist Sharia is far from accepted.It should also be noted that the ICU advocated war with Ethiopia for the purpose of conquering the Ogaden region. Jeremy Mac Donald wrote:
Ethiopia sent troops at the invitation of the TFG, the leigitimate government of Somalia. They were later joined by African Union troops from Uganda, Burundi, and Kenya. Following the defeat of the ICU other groups took their place, but an agreement between the TFG and another group has led to the current situation, which looks to be installing an Islamist government.Note the key differences:
lastknightleft wrote: This was from march 25 2009, I didn't see where it said a final decision was reached, have there been developments since? I did not see any references. As an appeal case, it could take some time. The key element is a State claiming a right to overrule doctor's in Medicaid cases, along with the direct statement that the government run Medicaid program is rationed. Patrick Curtin wrote:
You know this. I know this.Perhaps we should start a thread to keep count? :-P Lord Fyre wrote: Was that ... evocative ... description really necessary? David Fryer wrote: If you have to ask, you don't want to know. Indeed. Just as most people buy into the pretense that Nietzsche was a nihilist, they are also completely unaware that his sister redacted his works post mortem to advance the Nazi ideology she and ehr husband advocated.
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