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First off, whether written by paizo staff or not, single monster encounters are exclusively a bad idea. They are iconic, they are often dramatic in books and movies. In the game, they are a dumb choice. Period. Any steps you take to make a single enemy encounter work out would have been even more effective by simply having 2 slightly weaker monsters/enemies. You are working against the way the game functions (without significant house rules or alternate rules) by puting a single enemy in an important encounter. Just dont do it.
Dragons dont need to be alone. They can have minions, a mate, children, whatever. And not just throw away mooks. There should always be at least half the party's number in worthwhile dangerous enemies in any fight that is supposed to be a challenge. You can sprinkle in mooks too for flavor and set dressing, but against a party of 4 there should ALWAYS be at least 2 significantly threatening enemies in every meaningful encounter. If an ap has a single enemy encounter, change it. If you want to put a dragon in your homebrew game, give it a mate, some children or a bunch of potent kobold priests or something.
After you have done that, remind yourself that the game, and especially the AP is designed around a standard 15 point buy unoptimized party. What does that mean?
1. The base assumption is the party will consist of: A character who fights (fighter), a character who sort of fights and casts divine spells (cleric), a character who sort of fights and is skillfull (rogue) and an arcane spellcaster (wizard). If your party instead includes a druid, summoner, magus, and bard, you have alot more offensive power in that party then the base assumption. Adjust for situations like this.
2. The game doesnt expect heavy optimization. If your group scoures soucebooks for the 'best' options, particularly around combat, they will perform above the expected level. That isnt a bad thing per say, but it requires adjustments.
3. The game expects 4 character. I know it says 4-5 characters, but an extra character makes a huge difference in the party's capability. Use 4 as your baseline, and again if you deviate, adjust accordingly.
4. The game, particularly adventure paths assumes a 15 point buy. Higher then that can give substantial advantages to the player (especially at low levels), again if you deviate from this you are going to need to adjust published adventures and make note of it when assigning encounter crs for homebrew games.
Basically for each of the above factors you should up the assumed APL by one (or one per player in the case of 3) for each one you deviate from in the player's favor (or reduce it for a small party or deliberately unoptimized characters etc). But there is a caviote here. For everything but #2, you shouldnt adjust encounters by making individual enemies stronger, but by adding more enemies to the encounter, particularly when accounting for extra players.