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DESCRIPTION: Calculate the probability of the "observed data" for a bunch of coins being flipped. (Note: 'p' ranges from 0 to 1 by 0.10, and then I normalized the output values just for fun.) LANGUAGE: C++ code: // observedCoin.cpp
#include <stdio.h>
#define N 99 int main(int argc, char *argv[])
thejeff wrote:
You're being Trolled dude. .
Steve Geddes wrote:
Ah ha! I got it. The most direct way to reconcile the difference between these two sequences
FirstDifference of 12345612345612345612 := 1111151111151111151
The second one still "looks" random. (I was planning to try a Runs Test and autocorrelation on the original
.
Steve Geddes wrote: Another fun probability puzzle ... You guys missed the actual question: "The challenge is to try and reconcile that fact, with the intuitive (and this time correct) answer..."      My first instinct is ChiSquare, but I'm not sure: 1: Chi("12345612345612345612") = 17.4
1 Loses, so 2 is your dice rolling. This seems very crude. I'll try a Runs Test next. . I have to go out for Dinner now, but I'll keep trying later this evening.
NobodysHome wrote:
I'm just saying, be careful. It has be strongly asserted by some in this thread that "actual real world coins" have Pr(Heads)=Pr(Tails)= 1/2, leaving no room for 'edges', or any bias.So, if you Observed a coin landing on it's edge, then it could not have been an "actual real world coin."
NobodysHome wrote:
That is a great story! Did your teacher give you "Actual real world coins"? Or harvy dents?
thejeff wrote:
Hurray, my joke worked. :) s = link
Krensky wrote:
We are actually making a real joke about selfreference. That you don't know about such a thing is not your fault, it's your teacher's fault.They didn't know how to educate someone like you..
Paulicus wrote:
. APRIL FOOLS!!  I mean DECEMBER 17ths. Everything I have posted in this thread is False. s = cave
BigNorseWolf wrote:
Keep practicing. Resistance to new ideas is normal. .
thejeff wrote:
"Actual real world coins" > Interpretation, "I have a fair coin, p=1/2." ( You've forced a value for Pr(Heads). ) This is a very easy question to answer.IT'S 1/2 BECAUSE YOU FORCED THAT VALUE ON US.
BigDTBone wrote: No, just accepting standardized rules for statistical tests. So, again, if we ""assume ANY random coin then the likelihood of a weighted coin is extremely remote"" . So remote that the bias introduced will be 2 or 3 orders of magnitude below significant figures in the system. If the weighted coin distribution itself is weighted then that needs to be included in the premise of the statistical test, which it was not. Plato said, IT'S A TRAP !
BigDTBone wrote:
You're talking about something intimately related, but different. This is called choosing a Prior. You've chosen one that appears Gaussian ("likelihood of a weighted coin is extremely remote...")and that suits yourself, and makes your post mostcorrect. (< you're trying to force a particular world.) A Prior *must* be picked, so this is fine. But realize what you've done. .
BigNorseWolf wrote:
What is a harvy dent? That the coin in not fair? YES!!! So, you claim you understand the coin may be biased (I can see your AHEM,
Question: Why did you not account for this "harvy dent" coin in your answer above?
Don't kill the messenger. Blame your High School teachers, and maybe
.
BigNorseWolf wrote:
It's not that what you have typed is wrong, it's that you've only considered one case out of an infinite number of cases. You've picked the one case in which you are correct.(I just realized some people call this wishful thinking.) To further illuminate these murky waters (which absolutely hide tentacles), let me ask yet another question. What is the chance one thing out of an infinite number of things is actually The Thing happening now? (Ha! typing that amused me...) Seems likely the chance is low. Anyways, to carry on with the story, let's put it another way, all you (we) know is five
To help answer, we need *another case*  let us compare your world against another of
That is, given an observed sequence of five heads inarow, which coin do you now think
[Oh btw, as an aside, Google does this *all* the time. Google doesn't use IfThen
= Lowering The BOOM!! or, "Welcome to the real world Neo." =
The SetUp: I have two coins. One is fair with Pr(Heads)=0.50. The other is biased and
The New Question: You don't know which of these two coins I'm using (fair or biased),
Now, Back to the Original Question at the top of the Page: If I flip a coin and it
Answer = absolutely do not bet on Tails. *****
= Come with me if you want to be Bayesian =
"The parameter of a coin's flipprobability is a random variable." Haha! I'm not really going to teach you Bayesian Statistics, because I don't think you
Imagine we have 11 coins manufactured so their probabilities differ according to the
Pr_0(Heads) = 0.00 // this coin has tails on both sides
Now, let's compute the chance some observed data, i.e. five heads or {H,H,H,H,H}, was
Coin 0: Pr_0({H,H,H,H,H}) = (.00)^5 = 0.00 // read this as, the probability of getting 5 heads from a coin with zero probability of getting any head is zero.
Ok. Ok. Here we go with some interpretation!! First, please notice the above
New Question 1:
Ans: Coin 10 has the highest computed chance of showing 5 heads in a row. I would
New Question 2:
Ans:
> Ok (again I'm too lazy to actually normalize) but looking at the numbers we can see
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Do you see it now? Without fist specifying, or choosing, a world or a coin, before asking the question, one
** This is why you're calculation above is not a full answer, because you have
Finally, you have to have atleast two models and then pick one. Even then all you can really do is
. Think I'll go now... It's been virtual. Good Bye. .
I want to be in a fast moving spaceship with the velocity to exit the solar system.
.
Ok, we have the answer > That is not a crossguard. Those two small,
New computer model, called GEOS5. [vid = supercomputer model ]
v = Moore's Law has held true for 40 years, but many say it will soon end .
The Fox wrote:
] Here's an idea: Inscribe the coin in a sphere, and then make the surface
Let's see... I get for an answer... oh, crap, I forgot how to integrate
. Edit: thickness = .707R (this may be wrong)
It's not a properly functioning AI that will end us.
You know.. this kind of thing:
<      >
Now I'm wondering if a light saber weighs more when it's turned on than when it's off? .
Electric Wizard wrote:
Who is the "Bayesian" and who is the "Frequentist", I wonder?
And now they are talking Sustainable Human Space Explorarion. Hahahaha... do you want fries with that?
thejeff wrote:
Electric Wizard wrote:
This is a >slide< from the >Gateway to Space conference last month<. You probably don't understand what this is. . Apply now for a >Space Job<.

