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Irori

DeciusBrutus's page

4,254 posts. Alias of Daniel Powell 318.


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Goblinworks Executive Founder

Phaeros will be present for the 1000 Pacific time. Complications are likely to arise if other parties do not rescind declaration of hostile intentions.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

Xeen wrote:
Nihimon wrote:
TEO Cheatle wrote:
ANYONE on the map that is screwing any agreements that are made by the larger alliances/organizations will most likely be dealt with swiftly.
It's going to be incredibly important to ensure that any agreements that are made are clear. No one should be forced to stand by while enemies that have sworn their destruction grow in power. I'm not sure if this is the only such case, but a Company from Aragon has publicly declared War on Phaeros, and Phaeros will not meekly stand by while Aragon grows in power to provide high level training to that Company.
If you dont want to follow the agreement while everyone else does, that is your choice.

The deal will not include any safe harbor for those who have declared themselves our enemies.

Also, this is entirely the wrong thread.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

Any system of loot drops is off the table.

What I was saying is that the refiner will buy raw materials for some coin cost, refine them at some time cost, and sell the refined output for some price; I doubt that the price of +3 output will ever be less than the input cost. For that to happen, the production of +3 materials incidental to the production of higher-level refined items would have to be greater than the demand curve for +3 refined materials at cost.

Right now I don't know of ANY benefit for having +4 or better equipment over +3 (except implements have a small benefit). I don't think the market price for +5 equipment will be on a different order of magnitude than +3; not because it won't be a lot rarer, but because there won't be a huge benefit to the users, and the users set the demand curve.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

There's no randomness in crafting, so nobody would buy the refined materials to make a +3 sword if the price of the sword was less than the cost.

The expected value for refining is likewise positive; if demand for +3 refined items is so low compared with the supply that is incidental to +4 and+5 refined materials that they are cheaper than the raw materials that create them, but demand for +4 and +5 goods is so high that the small fraction of those covers the total cost of raw materials, that says a lot about the market for +3 weapons: almost nobody wants them even at extremely low cost.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

Now that we've identified the capacity and failure mode of the servers, making sure the servers don't regularly reach capacity should be a mostly-solved concern, right? I would be very surprised if scaling up required much more than bringing more hardware online.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

Speculation: if you log off immediately and wait, the server sometimes catches up and saves your most recent state so that when you rejoin it catches you. If you stay in, expect that the new server that has you will save your new position.

Caveat: all of that is speculation based on incomplete information.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

Ryan Dancey wrote:

Just FYI, in the industry, "AAA" means "a budget at the top end of what similar games spend on development. It doesn't have anything to do with quality ratings. There are many "failed" AAA game that were just not good.

So the "top end" for MMOs today is between $100 million and $200 million, compared with Pathfinder Online at about $5 million.

That's the definition I'm familiar with.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

Thanks for explaining how all of these presentations are a "desync" error.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

It feels like people want a short explanation that covers everything. If that were possible, the system wouldn't have the depth to keep people engaged for a long time.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

Using that rating system, most AAA games aren't AA games. Lots of games are huge financial successes without being innovative at all (Assassins' Creed being several).

Goblinworks Executive Founder

I belive each settlement will eventually be able to define access and facility usage rights on a rather fine scale. Early on, I suspect that it will be based on company membership.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

I thought that AAA in game design referred to the production methodology; large teams working very hard to perfect small areas each.

The size of the "animations" team in some games is larger than all of Goblinworks.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

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Rogues being underpowered/harder to learn is a different problem.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

KotC Carbon D. Metric wrote:

@Calis

I feel quite the same way and I had higher hopes for the product at this point but up til recently I never really had any idea how many people are working on the game compared to ANY other AAA type title, and the low early production values are a consequence of starting wholly from scratch, coupled with how very few programmers they actually have at their command.

As RD has said, what we are seeing now is the kind of Alpha gameplay most games would see when they are still 2 years out from release, which to the GW timeframe is pretty close. We are playing Legos with a hand carved set of prototypes right now, not the production models.

"Other" AAA title? PFO isn't AAA.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

I suspect that +2 will be more common than +3 to start, because it is moderately cheaper and provides the same benefit until well after T2 gear is in demand.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

I doubt that making T1 +0 equipment will ever be profitable. One goal of having relatively high drop rates for starter gear is to make it very cheap.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

Bluddwolf wrote:
Ryan Dancey wrote:
Bluddwolf, I just painstakingly documented that for Fighters, Clerics and Rogues there is nothing you cannot train that requires you to take any Feats outside their core Role features. Including in the thread you're responding in. Please stop spreading misinformation.

I needed to train mining to get my constitution up, and I needed to get the mining achievement 2 in order to get mining 4 or 5, I forget which. So please tell me where this misinformation is?

(Emphasis added.

it isn't the way it used to be anymore.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

They will have (raw) material and (total) time costs about 10% and 15% lower.

Time costs are more different because it is faster to refine and faster to craft lower-quality stuff.

I also don't think it's wrong for the market price to be only moderately higher for +2 gear. The benefit to having it is fairly small in most cases.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

Regarding pricing: I estimate about 5c per for T1 raw materials that are sourced locally, because that makes the reward per hour about the same for gathering as hunting. I figure finished goods prices will be based on material and time cost, but haven't figured how to quantify time cost.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

Schedim wrote:

Perhaps hardening using of magic order essence, extra support by steelwires and runes written with green ink ...

Perhaps tempering the wood with weak acidic elixir after being scrubbed with brimstone and lastly dipped in potent lampoil ....

Or a pommel of an azure crystal, fasten in a silver clasp and treated with potent nettles...

Or actually all three reciep could exist ...

That's a good description of a wand recipe. Higher quality refined materials would provide lots of the flavorful description you use.

But pine batons are still made out of pine, it's just that you have to waste 30% or so of your logs to get only the +3 batons out of them.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

What would you add to the refining of +3 pine batons?

Goblinworks Executive Founder

Armor tier increases defenses, roughly equal to weapon tier affecting attack roll.

Attacks outstrip defenses because each character can focus in one attack, but has to spread out defenses.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

You are welcome to join with Phaeros as well.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

I ended up binding my PTT mouse button to scroll lock, and learned to double-tap when using a program that cares about scroll lock.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

4: crafting time is base time times quality squared divided by the product of facility rating and crafting skill.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

In addition to the vulnerability window not being set properly, they don't open when advertised. Currently seeing that the current one will open in minus twenty-one minutes.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

What is the game balance reason for it to be easier to descend then to ascend?

Goblinworks Executive Founder

I think that there are kinds of server behavior that are perfectly acceptable in an Alpha test but not acceptable during a paid Beta. I agree that the current iteration is not ready for release, but I don't know what the iteration will be in two weeks.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

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I love the hints that the effects of the civilization that built the Emerald Spire have not been fully detailed yet. It feels like there might be a plan for the lore that hasn't been published, and hidden plans are much more exciting than actual plans.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

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The best addition to the AH right now would be the ability to view the current price of every crafting component for sale that has "Stock: Weak Adhesive".

Goblinworks Executive Founder

What's your activity cycle?

Goblinworks Executive Founder

This thread is now kitten pictures.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

Shaibes wrote:
DeciusBrutus wrote:
Shaibes wrote:
Conceptually, I disagree with MOBS dropping recipes. If one assumes our trainers are sufficiently proficient to be training us in higher skill levels, it should be reasonable to assume that they themselves would be able to train us in higher-tier recipes. I could even see having to quest for a super awesome T3 recipe known only to a lone hermit crafter deep in the wilderness somewhere who demands a heavy toll for his knowledge... but random drops? No, that doesn't make sense to me.
What it sounds like you really want is for your character to be fully agenty and self-sufficient; you want a crafting character to be able to be nothing more than a crafting character and do all of the crafting with minimal support from other characters. Is that an accurate assessment of why you would prefer that crafters have to undergo a pilgrimage (or perhaps pay someone else to undergo the same pilgrimage repeatedly) in order to advance, rather than paying someone to fight level-appropriate monsters?

No, I want there to be some logical connection between my recipes and where I get them from. Why would some random monster have a scroll of parchment detailing how to craft a masterwork sword? Why wouldn't the high-level trainer back in the settlement have that same recipe or one similar to it? Now, if the trainer tells me "Gorok the Foul stole from my father and killed my sister--bring me his head and I will share the secret of silvered iron with you" THAT is a logical reason to go kill a boss. Just wandering around killing everything I see until I get the stuff I need is not immersive to me.

EDIT: Xeen understood what I was getting at correctly. I apologize if I didn't convey my opinion clearly enough in my earlier post.

That would lead to "queue here to Gorouk the Foul", or possibly a set of procedurally generated quests with a similar outcome.

It also requires that recipes be untradeable, or the emergent behavior is that a few people spam the recipe quests and sell the recipes, again yielding the outcome that everybody buys their recipe off the AH.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

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It seems to me that targeting a demographic that your competitors don't is a good business practice.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

This is a bad place for this entire discussion. There are so many people that are wrong and will have trouble admitting it, and the tribal affiliations and arguements as soldiers biases will shout down all of the actual discussion that is attempted.

Yes, I've said things here that break solidarity with the people who agree with me, by pointing out their biases. If that is a problem, it is part of the point.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

Even the best equipment (especially the best equipment) requires resources that can be gathered with no training. If the price for T1 +2 weapons and armor rises significantly above the purchase cost of their refined materials, some entrepreneur(s) will start making it. Likewise if the price of the refined materials rises much above the cost of the raw materials.

I estimate that, with a fair profit all around, a fighter will be able to get a +2 weapon and armor for less than he can sell 100 combined iron and coal for (once T2 and T3 crafters are in operation, there will be plenty of dabblers who can make T1 equipment, and they will accept low margins).

Goblinworks Executive Founder

Shaibes wrote:
Conceptually, I disagree with MOBS dropping recipes. If one assumes our trainers are sufficiently proficient to be training us in higher skill levels, it should be reasonable to assume that they themselves would be able to train us in higher-tier recipes. I could even see having to quest for a super awesome T3 recipe known only to a lone hermit crafter deep in the wilderness somewhere who demands a heavy toll for his knowledge... but random drops? No, that doesn't make sense to me.

What it sounds like you really want is for your character to be fully agenty and self-sufficient; you want a crafting character to be able to be nothing more than a crafting character and do all of the crafting with minimal support from other characters. Is that an accurate assessment of why you would prefer that crafters have to undergo a pilgrimage (or perhaps pay someone else to undergo the same pilgrimage repeatedly) in order to advance, rather than paying someone to fight level-appropriate monsters?

Goblinworks Executive Founder

1 person marked this as a favorite.
T7V Jazzlvraz wrote:
Ryan Dancey wrote:
Lisa joined me...with her uber character of uberness.

So...you've just let Lisa play herself in-game, then, eh? :-D

Thank you very much for these write-ups, Ryan. Pleasepleaseplease, do the other two Roles as well, when you find the time and patience!

It goes better all around when nobody stands in the way of Lisa getting what Lisa wants. I can see a few things that are probably there because Lisa said so, like Goblin Bombers hurting other goblins enough to draw aggro.

At least, if that wasn't intentional, it's a feature now.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

I don't know where they are, but it's the one with the adventurer skeletons.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

I think that it's far too early to declare defeat. It is certainly late enough to start aggressively recruiting through all available channels. The slow sell that worked well enough when there was two years or more to let it work.

Right now to be viable, a settlement that has only a handful of members needs to be recruiting just as aggressively as one with a hundred, because the ones that are successful in six months will have around 500 members at least.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

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Settlements with few active members and lukewarm recruitment will quickly become non-factors, and will be quickly captured once they can be.

There's no way around that; a mechanic that encourages settlements to refuse members will hurt the players without helping other settlements,

Goblinworks Executive Founder

The forum software needs to authentice with the same system that the game server authenticates with. Most COTS software doesn't do that well, and it would take a lot of time to properly program and test to security standards a way to make a user-friendly system authenticate through a different method. I think two-factor authentication is expected at some point, and it would surprise me if it was more than a configuration setting to enable the GW website login to accept the new information required to log in.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

There is a lower level hellhound out there as well. It looks like the best possibility right now is the champion skeletons, who IIRC aren't escalation bosses.

A full party is highly recommended.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

There are apothecary recipes the use those chemicals.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

Audoucet wrote:
Takasi wrote:

Could you legally force a refund right now? Have you consulted a lawyer? Do you have a foundation for the terms with which you would win a lawsuit that you could share with us here on the forums?

Even if you had unlimited time and energy to 'lose' to get back your 150 bucks, do you have a legitimate case in your region that entitles you to a refund?

I understand that it's possible to be entitled. However, are you actually entitled at this point? I would really like to know your specific current legal status based on the contract you signed for any purchases related to this game you've made thus far.

Also if you have time how that contract relates to this thread.

I'm entitled to a refund for anything not yet delivered. Even if I signed a contract saying otherwise.

I find that surprising; I thought contracts for future delivery were required for basic trade to happen at all.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

Andius the Afflicted wrote:

So basically Decius, what you are saying is the availability of accounts purchased during the first Kickstarter which people have come to regret exceeds the number of new players who are seriously excited for this title but missed the first Kickstarter over a year ago.

That we've lost more serious players than we've gained in that time.

This isn't raising any red flags to you?

I swear you and Nihimon will be in the middle of defending every decision GW has ever made when the server shuts down for good.

No. I said that everyone who wants to pay $85 for EE (and is rational and has knowledge) has already done so.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

Audoucet wrote:
Caldeathe Baequiannia wrote:
Are you saying your 1600.00 investment was 16 post-kickstarter EE packs?

No, I am saying that I have : 500$ from the KS, 100$ for an EE access, and 900 to get the alpha update. And a few addons, I don't remember which ones because the GW interface sucks. And a DT I bought to someone who decided that he wouldn't play the game.

The 100$ EE is indeed a sold product.

$500 from the Tech Demo KS was for the Tech Demo to happen (it did) and for some physical goods, of which there were no major delivery problems I know of. Simply put, you got everything you paid for from that $500.

$100 for EE access is the standard purchase; you aren't in any deeper than anyone else.

Alpha access? Provided you have the ability to log in in alpha, you got everything you were ever even remotely promised. Alpha was never expected to be ready for release.

The best-founded complaint you have at the moment is that EE didn't start in q3 2014; it's slipped a month, so far. I hardly think that qualifies as being "stabbed in the back".

Goblinworks Executive Founder

Doc || Allegiant Gemcutters wrote:

Another issue is that when I run up to go kill a wolf or some mob, it seems that in every encounter, the first attempted strike I try does nothing. I'll click the button or press "1" but nothing happens.

So, I end up mashing the "1" key in an attempt to get that first strike to fire.

Since there is no auto-attack mode like in WoW, and you have to manually initiate each attack, this first strike really needs to be fluid and work as expected when called.

When it doesn't it basically means I lose a fight with an equally matched opponent because they get in several hits before my first one finally fires.

Wolves in particular will cause knockdown with their initial attack. Most archers will interrupt your attack if you are granting opportunity.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

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randomwalker wrote:
randomwalker wrote:

I'd probably prefer the brute force in this case

scratch that. The analytical problem for the first part is simple enough i could do it with pen and paper while supposed to read work emails, so I'd probably try finesse before force (still no monte carlo though).

Spoiler:
for 3 dN (with N^3 possible outcomes),
the #outcomes that has a certain dice=x is

#low(x)= (N+1-x)^3 - (N-x)^3
#high(x)= x^3 - (x-1)^3
#middle(x) = 6x (N+1-x) - 3(N+1) +1

The middle one was a bit tricky, so feel free to confirm it independently. Doing it for a d20 in excel gives a checksum of 8000 and the right averages in each column, though.

Checking your math on "middle":

Spoiler:
Out of N^3 trails, the expected number for X is equal to the number of times there is at least one value of exactly X, at least one additional value at most X, and at least one additional value at least X.

All permutations of that are: X,X,X; X,X,<X (3 permutations); X,X,>X(3 permutations); X,<X,>X(6 permutations);

The frequency (number of times the outcome happens in N^3 rolls, for each X) of X,X,X is 1 (Every X will come up triples once).
For X,X,<X, it is x-1 (the frequency out of n of rolling less than x; because there are 3 ways to get two the same and one lower, the total frequency is 3x-3

By similar mathX,X,>X has total freqency 3n-3x.

The frequency of X, <X, >X comes out to 1*(x-1)*(n-x). Six permutations contribute -6X^2+6xn+6x-6n

Summing the frequencies, I get 1+3x-3+3n-3x-6xx+6xn+6x-6n
simplify: -6xx+6xn+6x-3n-2

I can factor that to 6x(-x+n+1)-3(n+1)+1


math checks out.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

Andius the Afflicted wrote:

Oh btw I actually sold the Idris for 3400$. So I got over three times what I paid for it.

Source

That other games are capable of doing that while DTs seem to actually be falling price should be a huge red flag to anyone who really cares about this game at all.

It doesn't surprise me that you would be able to sell a collector's item for a 200% markup after sales end.

The target market right now for DT accounts is "People who want to play PFO EE but have not already purchased an account and are at least above standard in the amount of money they want to spend."

In order to find someone in that market, you basically have to market the game and sell it to a new customer. That's a challenge even for people who are skilled at making people believe that they want what they are selling. When you add the difficulty of overcoming the appearance of fraud that is presented when you try to sell an account that fell off of the back of a truck, it's probably literally impossible.

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