The signs on the RPG scene these days are pointing to the rather likely possibility that design of the 5th edition of Dungeons & Dragons is already under way and possibly has been for some time. It is not the purpose of this post to delve into the details or discuss the likelihood in any great detail, so suffice it to say that the Legends & Lore series of articles seem to point that way, as does the rehiring of Monte Cook by Wizards of the Coast. Further evidence attesting to this comes from sales and the release schedule for 4e – the sales of the Pathfinder RPG are of the same magnitude as those of 4e and may even be outselling it, which is a major achievement, though it probably also owes a great deal to the weak release schedule for 4e that is somewhat reminiscent of the end of official support for 3.5E. In any case, even if you still don’t believe 5e is coming, just assume that it is anyway for the purposes of this thread.
I would enjoy seeing a discussion of what Paizo will and/or can do to position itself, as well as the Pathfinder RPG, to prepare for and withstand the challenge that 5E will pose. It appears from the Legends & Lore series of articles that Wizards of the Coast is keen on designing a game that will reunite the splintered D&D fan-base. That may be beneficial for the players, but it could hurt PFRPG and Paizo.
I must say that I really like what is being presented in the aforementioned articles, which is in complete contrast to the run up to 4e, where I was more and more repelled by each successive reveal. If this is the case for a substantial section of the Pathfinder RPG player base, than the game can be significantly undercut. I know that PFRPG has been going from strength to strength recently, but it could well be fatal for Paizo to underestimate WotC if the latter comes to the market with a new edition. As high quality as PFRPG products may be, business as usual may not be enough, and there might need to be a more specific response.
That said, Paizo has managed to build up a lot of loyalty. It has done a lot of things right to ensure that. Apart from updating a popular edition of D&D with a fresh and flavorful twist, the company has managed to grow it in new directions, while maintaining a high level of quality and excellent production values. On top of that, it has embraced the Open Gaming License, which has further endeared it to the community; a fact further enhanced by the regular interaction of Paizo staff with the community. So, clearly, there will be a large number of players who trust Paizo and will stay with the Pathfinder RPG no matter what lures WotC may throw at them. Others will play both games. Still, not all players are like that and a significant portion of the Pathfinder RPG player base may be susceptible to switching to 5E if WotC does a good job with the game.
So what should/will Paizo do to respond to and how will Pathfinder be impacted by 5e D&D?
Should Paizo simply attempt to continue its plan for the PFRPG without change and stress stability and/or backward compatibility?
Should Paizo release a 2nd edition of the PFRPG to compete for novelty value?
Should Paizo try to sell itself (perhaps even to WotC/Hasbro) along with the PFRPG?
Should Paizo do an update/refresh of the PFRPG – i.e. PFRPG revised/1.5e akin to what D&D 3.5E did with respect to 3E?
Should Paizo expand the PFRPG system in new directions, such as science fiction, wild west, modern, etcetera?
Should Paizo revert to 3PP status, abandon PFRPG and throw itself behind supporting 5e (depending on the terms offered by a licensing agreement – if any)? (This is the least likely scenario, I think.)
Obviously, this is by no means an exhaustive list of Paizo’s choices and PFRPG’s futures and each of the above can contain many sub-scenarios, but I hope the should be enough to get the discussion going!