GM Nayr's Second Darkness (Inactive)
Game Master Nayr Trebrot

Not a problem. Ready to play here. Hope you vacation was great.

I too am good to go and hoping the vacation was enjoyable and stuff. I'm just waiting on Kallan to post again...don't wanna be rude and walk away from him mid greeting and all XP

On an actual game related mechanics note...correct me if I'm wrong, but on that game of ghoulette, couldn't one put a bet of 1 silver on 9 individual marks and have a 75% chance of walking away with +1 silver each time?

Thanks; had a great time!

Eris - I think that you're right; a bit odd that they'd miss that - those rules are directly out of the AP, though

But wouldn't that mean that you have a 25% chance to loose 9 silver? If so then the house odds are intact.

You know, I never really thought about it before.

Consider a typical roulette wheel. There are 38 numbers on a roulette wheel (0, 00, 1-36) meaning the odds are 1 in 37 to win (roughly 2.7%, which means the 'house' has a [roughly]97.3% chance to win). To win 100% of the time, one would have to place a bet on all 38 numbers. This, while possible, would actually mean losing money because roulette pays out at 35:1 if you bet on a single number (if you bet $1 on a winning number, you now have $35).

It similarly makes no sense to bet on 35 numbers because you would still, statistically, end up losing money and only ever 'break even' whenever you win.

So to turn a profit, the most numbers one can bet on would be 34 which is, roughly, 89% percent of the board. What that means is that placing $1 on 34 individual numbers would earn you a whopping $2 (you 'lose' on 33 tiles [$33] but 'win' on 1 number [$35]. 35-33=2).

Now, of course, there is a (roughly) 11% chance that you'll lose all $34.

If you bet $1 on one number for 38 games in a row you would, statistically, win once with a payout of $35. However, you would lose $1 on 37 of those bets at a cost of $37. Meaning overall, you have a net loss of $2 ($37-$35=$2).

Now, if one were to bet $1 each on 34 numbers for 38 games in a row one would, statistically, win 34 of those games at a rate of $2 a win. Meaning overall winnings of $68. When you lose, however, you lose hard and you would lose $34 4 times which amounts to $136 (34*4=136). Subtracting our winnings of $68, we have an overall loss of $68 (136-68=68).

It seems like its actually 'safer' to bet on just one number consistently. At least, you'll bleed your monies out a lot slower.

The odds of winning in Ghoulette are 1:11 (or, roughly, 9%). The payout is 10:1 thus to actually win something, one can only place stuff on 9 numbers (75% of available numbers). Let us assume the bet is 1gp on each individual number with a payout of 10gp (1pp) on a winning number.

So, if one plays for 12 rounds, and one bets 1gp on one individual number, one is expected to win once for 10gp total. However, one would lose 11 other times at a rate of 1gp a round meaning a net loss of 1gp.

Now, if one plays for 12 rounds and bets 1gp on 9 individual numbers, one is expected to win nine times for 9gp in profit. However, one would lose 9gp 3 times for total loses of 27gp. Subtracting from our winnings, that's a net loss of 18gp.

So in either case, its smarter to just bet on one number.

See kids, math isn't useless XP

Close. Odds are 1 in 38, not 37. Your other math is good, allowing for that correction.

Its smarter not to bet at all. And smartest to own the casino. :)

Which is why Restless Cherry Blossom isn't betting to win money, she is betting on the off chance that Dungo says something nice.

Ultimately, though...gambling is fun for most of the populace in Riddleport, so I guess the point is moot:)

Close. Odds are 1 in 38, not 37. Your other math is good, allowing for that correction.

Its smarter not to bet at all. And smartest to own the casino. :)

Typo XP

People I too have been a bit away - not due to vacation (I am not that lucky) but because of workload. I have read up everything and tries every night to spent 30 minutes following :-)

Just letting you know I am NOT gone just been a bit slow

No worries Kallan; post when you can. I've been unfortunately keeping us well behind schedule with delays; just hope we're not losing anyone.

Okay, bad news everyone; we've lost another in Deneb, who has decided this game is not for him. That being said, I'm now completely disenchanted with it, as two of the people most outspoken in starting the game have now bailed on it.

I am, unfortunately, shutting this game down. I apologize to you who have stuck around and sunk time into it, but I won't try and keep plugging holes when people go missing. Please drop me a PM if you'd like to discuss, or even to call me a jerk, but I can't abide a sinking ship.

Thanks for your efforts and your time.

Well, I don't like it. But, I can certainly understand it. Thanks for giving it a try.

Oh well. Sometimes it can be better to shut the thing down quickly than to let it drag on and die later anyway. Thanks for the time you took to run this.

Completely understandable however sad - but the cards we were dealt apparently just didn't hold up. Really sad to be honest!

But Nayr THANKS for trying - and ya other damn cool characters will cry my beggareyes out tonight as the cold wind of Riddleport serves as covers for the night :-)

As for Kallan - he will find himself at the top of that arch learning to fly before long, realizing that's not possible, he quickly curses himself for not learning how to swim!!!

Ah well, c'est la vie. 'tis a real shame though, I thoroughly enjoying this character.

Anyways, gl and hf with all your other stuffs everyone.